Are the 2022 Suns on a 2014 Spurs Revenge Tour?
Phoenix holds a 44-10 record this season after losing a 2-1 NBA Finals lead last year.
Teams that climb to the mountain top only to fall one step short of immortality must make one of two franchise-altering decisions: blow it up or run it back
Many teams give into the crushing seasonal cycle of the NBA. Between an owners’ willingness to go over the salary cap, front office planning, coaches changing roles, players aging out, and plain ol’ dumb injury luck, championship windows are short.
Not everyone breaks from the weight of the fall, though. Some get up, dust themselves off, and get back to work. How much more fuel can be added to the fire than taking a lead in the NBA Finals just to have that championship adrenaline rush stripped out from underneath?
Let’s come back down to Earth before we even begin. The 2014 Spurs are considered one of the most complete teams in NBA history, the single best iteration of a dynasty that contended for two decades. That team featured 4 HOFers and completed their revenge tour with the utter domination over the Miami Heat the following season with LeBron James playing at what many consider to be his all-time athletic peak.
This Suns team is nowhere near as accomplished. If anything, the current Warriors team might even better embody that Spurs motion-centric play-style, with head coach Steve Kerr learning directly from Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson before becoming a head coach himself. So, here it is in bold: The 2022 Suns are NOT the 2014 Spurs…
And yet…
Both teams held and lost a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals.
In 2013, the San Antonio Spurs lead the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals 2-1. In 2021, the Phoenix Suns held a 2-1 Finals series lead over the Milwaukee Bucks.
Then, LeBron and Giannis happened.
Both teams faced the wrath of two of the most physically dominant superstars to ever play, who took their game to another level on the biggest stage.
Phoenix had no answer for Giannis once the big man realized he could get to the rim anytime he wanted. Antetokoumnpo accepted that the team’s best chance at creating consistent halfcourt offense while involving teammates was by taking the ball out of his own hands, putting it in Khris’ and Jrue’s, and using himself as arguably the most menacing roll-man in the league.
While San Antonio kept the series tight, LeBron was just too much to handle between his overwhelming drives and clutch shot-making, on top of the Ray Allen shot off the big board and kick-out from Chris Bosh to steal a demoralizing Game 6.
Either team could have waved the white towel and blown things up then and there because “they didn’t work together”. Especially in today’s era, where any player can demand out at any time, falling into the “disease of me” trap of prioritizing individual rewards over team goals. Instead, both squads relished at the opportunity to run it back on a season-long tour riding a “this time, it’s personal” wave of energy.
Take a look at how the Spurs and Suns rated on each side of the floor relative to the rest of the league before and after each team’s respective NBA Finals appearance. Both teams jump from Top-5 in point differential up to leading the league.
2013 Spurs: 58-24 | 2014 Spurs: 62-20 (.756 W/L%)
108.0 O-RTG (9th) | 110.6 O-RTG (7th)
101.1 D-RTG (3rd) | 102.2 D-RTG (4th)
+6.8 PD (4th) | +8.4 PD (1st)
2021 Suns: 51-21 | 2022 Suns 44-10 (.815 W/L%)
117.7 O-RTG (6th) | 115.0 O-RTG (2nd)
111.5 D-RTG (6th) | 106.2 D-RTG (3rd)
+6.2 PD (3rd) | +8.8 PD (1st)
(data via Cleaning the Glass 2/9/22)
Both teams featured All-NBA level backcourts. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have five All-NBA appearances between them. Chris Paul likely sees a third nod this season. Devin has made three All-Star teams, and with his scoring once again at an absurd level, now on a 1-seed in the West, its all but guaranteed that at least one Suns guard makes All-NBA this year, if not both.
This piece is meant to compare motivations, not player types or playing style. One way these teams differ can be seen in the ways their star players choose to lead. Popovich’s drill sergeant style works well when players like Duncan and Kawhi quietly set the example by taking criticism in stride. Chris Paul, on the contrary, tends to talk when he’s on the court… like, a lot.
“Chris Paul’s leadership” is credited so often that the phrase alone can make readers roll their eyes. But, similar to Steph Curry’s gravity, there’s only so many words in the English language that succinctly sum up the positive effect these players have on their teammates. The idea that entire defenses live in fear as soon as a player crosses half court is what makes guarding Steph Curry such a tough task. The same goes for Chris Paul when it comes to communicating, instructing, and teaching teammates.
The disconnect from fans comes with the percentage of credit given out. The Suns were a good team before Chris arrived; Paul’s presence took them from good to great. Improving situations is what great players do. Chris Paul may have never won a ring, but he has improved every situation he’s ever joined. Chris Paul may have never won MVP, but he has finished Top-7 in MVP voting NINE(!) times throughout his career, finishing as high as 2nd in ’08. When Phoenix locks up the best record in the West this year, CP3 will surely add a tenth notch to his MVP Conversation Belt.
Chris Paul understands the game of basketball as well as anyone who’s ever played. He watches all the film and he’s read the rulebook front and back. If there’s an advantage to be found, a rule that can be bent, or even an opposing player’s hand in the way of his rip-through, CP3 will find it. Finding and using any morsel of information that helps his team win seems to drive this meticulous mindset more than anything.
What Chris does as well as anyone ever has on the hardwood is setting up play-finishing teammates to succeed with easier scoring opportunities than they’d usually see. Chris Paul made an all-star out of a rim-roller. This doesn’t discredit Deandre Jordan’s defensive strides, or even his offensive skill-set; Jordan was always going to be a bouncy big who could jump through the roof.
What it does say, though, is that without CP3, Deandre would be left to create shots for himself, something he was never good at. If you’re wondering why Bismack Biyombo has never looked better, how the Suns hardly miss a beat when they replace one effective rim-roller with another, don’t overthink it. Playing with Chis Paul is a lob threat’s dream.
Deandre Ayton is scoring 1.35 PPP on 4.2 poss/game as the P&R Roll-Man. Javale McGee is scoring 1.5 PPP on 2.3 poss/game and Bismack Biyombo is scoring 1.256 PPP on 2.9 poss/game in the same role.
While we should credit the Amare Stoudamires of the world for powerful dunks and incredible feats of athleticism, maybe the majority of the credit should go to the Steve Nash type decision-maker who reads the P&R defense, sees the shooters guarded tightly, doesn’t have the space to create his own shot, and decides in live-time that the best shot for the team is a lob pass towards the rim for a dunk.
Chris Paul is the type of cerebral decision-maker who knows when to pick his spots, when to get a shooter going, and when to feed the big man. He studies the game to know in advance how the defense will react, so he can manipulate the reaction. He is The Point God, after all.
It’s hard for a team to flow better offensively; the ball might not move around quite as quickly as the motion-centric Warriors and Spurs teams, but it gets where it needs to go for the best look for the team just about every time.
Cam Johnson adds a floor-stretcher who can attack closeouts, helping Phoenix score 1.242 PPP as a Spot Up threat in 4.7 poss/game. Sliced another way, among players with 200+ C&S possessions, Cam ranks 2nd at 1.24 PPP in 4.6 poss/game. Coming off the bench, Cam Johnson ranks 2nd in the league in 3P% at 43%.
Booker adds 1.032 PPP on 3.3 poss/game as a Spot Up threat, while Landry Shamet does his best to fill those huge shoes in the second unit, scoring 1.0 PPP in his 3.1 Spot Up poss/game.
Cameron Payne resurged his career as a sixth man last season, and is back in slightly bigger role. Attempting to take control as a second unit shot-creator, the Suns score 0.962 PPP in 390 possessions with Cam Payne as P&R Ball-Handler.
Chris Paul ranks among the league leaders in just about every variation of pick-and-roll efficiency, via Synergy Sports. Some of the playtypes mentioned above give others their best chance to succeed by finishing the plays (dunking the lobs, hitting the C&S 3PA) off the shot-creation of Paul through these pick-and-roll play-types, including everything from Spain to Horns to Double-Drag sets.
The Suns have ran 1,112 pick-and-rolls with Chris Paul as the ball-handler this season, scoring 1.094 PPP, ranking in the 89th percentile. Chris Paul himself is scoring 0.972 PPP in the 460 pick-and-rolls ran he’s ran this season, ranking in the NBA’s 82nd percentile. Here’s a look at how his efficiency holds up on high volume:
Instead of forcing the ball through the two scoring options every time down, CP3’s patience allows the Suns to choose what type of bucket they want to go for every possession, to the point where Chris will run ball-screen after ball-screen until the mismatch he wants is found.
Between Devin Booker’s must-see tough shot-making, Ayton being a walking post-up mismatch, Chris Paul’s decision-making in pick-and-roll, and shooters flanking everyone, the half-court offense can be a thing of beauty.
In the 287 times Chris Paul hit the Roll-Man in P&R, Suns scored 1.376 PPP, ranking in the 91st percentile. When CP3 found a spot-up shooter on 324 possessions, Phoenix scored 0.988 PPP.
Facing single coverage in P&R 398 times, Chris Paul’s 1.111 PPP ranks in the 84th percentile. Snake dribbling is second nature to Chris, allowing Paul to step into one of his favorite jumpers, the elbow middy against a dropping big. Chris Paul has used the pick to take a dribble jumper against single coverage 277 times this year for 1.079 PPP, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Even more often, Chris faced the defense committing to him as P&R ball-handler on 724 possessions, with the Suns scoring 1.084 PPP as a result, ranking in the 86th percentile. 513 of these possessions involved Chris passing out of a High P&R for 1.062 PPP; and 205 of those possessions ended with Chris hitting the Roll-Man for 1.37 PPP.
Defenses have only trapped Chris Paul in P&R 40 times, which might be the right choice, since Chris picks teams apart for 1.325 PPP in trap P&R situations. When in doubt, set CP3 a ball-screen and let The Point God create.
The Phoenix Suns’ halfcourt execution is a big reason why they made the Finals last year, and it remains a reason they’re contending again this year. Phoenix can beat you any way they want: up and down, slow and prodding; pick your poison. Chris Paul supercharged an offense reliant on Booker ISOs and Ayton Post-Ups into a well-balanced machine, where any matchup can be hunted for at any moment.
Deandre Ayton scores 0.967 PPP on his 2.7 post-ups per game. Booker running off a screen like a flare or stagger results in 1.009 PPP for the Suns on 2.3 poss/game.
When CP3 ISOs this season, he scores 0.87 PPP on 1.7 poss/game; when DBook ISOs, he scores 0.857 PPP on 3.3 poss/game.
To be clear: Devin Booker is the definition of a walking bucket. Some of the shots DBook takes and makes will have you questioning the laws of physics. His percentages might look closer to average this year than expected, but weighing in the degree of difficulty with his shot selection, it makes more sense. Like DeRozan in Chicago, when a high volume of shots taken are pull-up fadeaway midrange jumpers, the numbers will take a hit. Even so, DBook ranks among the best in the league in off-the-dribble jump shots, especially in the midrange, his comfort zone.
Mikal Bridges is a truly dynamic wing. He’s flashed tantalizing on-ball abilities throughout his career while bringing a night-to-night floor of stellar defense and knockdown outside shooting. Overall in the halfcourt, Mikal Bridges scores 1.09 PPP, ranking in the 89th percentile. Always a threat in transition off forced turnovers, Bridges is sneakily efficient in just about any playtype.
If the logic follows that 0.9 PPP is roughly average for most plays, and 1.0 PPP is considered “a good play”, then literally any play involving Mikal Bridges qualifies as a good play this season. Don’t take my word for it, just ask Synergy Sports, where these sort of playtype breakdowns are tracked:
According to The BBall Index’s LEBRON numbers that attempt to measure overall impact, the Chris Paul effect is made evident. CP3’s +4.25 rating is not only twice as high as anyone on his own team, it’s higher than any rating of a 2014 Spurs player, with Ginobili’s being the largest impact of +3.88.
2014 Spurs | 2022 Suns
Manu Ginobli +3.88 | Chris Paul +4.25 (+3.06 O)
Kawhi Leonard +3.83 (+3.11 D) | Devin Booker +1.78 (+2.38 O)
Tim Duncan +3.25 (+3.18 D) | Javale McGee +1.25 (+1.15 D)
Patty Mills +2.18 (+2.24 O) | Deandre Ayton +0.94 (+0.83 D)
Danny Green +2.12 (+2.28 D) | Jae Crowder +0.98 (+1.51 D)
Tony Parker +1.29 (+1.38 O) | Mikal Bridges +0.83 (+0.86 D)
Another reason Phoenix has jolted to contender status is its team defense. Every champion since Shaq and Kobe has ranked Top-12 in Offense and Defense. Phoenix ranked 6th on both sides last year when they made the NBA Finals, and have improved to rate 2nd in offense and 3rd in defense as of today.
Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard exist among a handful of legendary defenders, so there is no direct comparison. Ayton may rival “The Admiral” David Robinson in physique, but he’s by no means the defender that Robinson or Duncan were.
That said, Ayton offers a huge, strong frame. He’s improved his footwork to keep up with smaller speedsters and is learning to use his length effectively as a drop defender. At first a question mark and slight negative as a rookie, Ayton’s closer now to a breakeven-if-not-plus-defender for his position.
The real anchor to Phoenix’s defense can be found on the wing. Mikal Bridges is the most disruptive defender on arguably the best defense in the league. Mikal’s 117 deflections ranks 21st in the NBA, while Chris Paul ranks 5th with 148.
Doing his best impression of Young Kawhi, Mikal is everywhere at once, anticipating dribble moves and passes before they happen, disrupting offenses with well-timed deflections. All-Defense this season is a lock, and with Draymond sidelined to end the season, who’s to say Mikal can’t win DPOY outright?
It’s hard to put into words everything that Mikal does for this defense. Bridges will break up a set before the offense even gets into it. Take his on-ball perimeter defense, where Mikal switches onto quicker guards with ease, locking down the best scorers in the league. Bridges will guard the ball-handler, switch on the first handoff, plow through the pick, and break up a second handoff before the offense even knows what hit ‘em.
The defensive awareness shared between Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder creates a telepathic team effect, where non-verbal communication happens in the moment as making rotations becomes reactionary. Add Chris Paul’s focus and Deandre Ayton’s lengthy strength, and these defensive rotations start swarming all over.
This roster is full of positive defenders. I wrote a whole piece last season trying to wrap my head around how Jae Crowder ends up on so many teams that out-win preseason expectations. It could be as simple as being a plus-if-not-great wing defender who keeps defenses honest from deep. Reliable 3&D wings are still rare, and can fit in just about any lineup configuration imaginable, even if the ability to put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts is now a more desirable trait among front offices.
In Year 17, CP3 is going as hard on that end as he ever has, the loudest voice on the court calling out other teams’ sets before they happen. 3x NBA Champion and Olympic Gold Medalist Javale McGee wins everywhere he goes, bringing reliable rim-running and rim-protection as a well-liked veteran.
Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Suns’s clutch numbers are through the roof. DBook is shooting 67.7% FG%, CP3 is shooting 57.1%, and Phoenix is 22-3 in games where the point differential is +/- 5 PTS with under five minutes left in the game. The Suns have a +43.5 Net Rating in the clutch with an O-RTG of 134.6!
This is the best team in franchise history by win percentage and net rating. The half-court offensive execution is pristine. The defense is for real. This team plays year-round playoff basketball. Phoenix is blazing through the league on a revenge tour the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 2014 Spurs. The Suns have never been hotter.
Data Sources: NBA Stats, Synergy Sports, Basketball Reference, BBall Index, Cleaning The Glass
Follow @BeyondTheRK on Twitter for LIVE NBA analysis and Orlando Magic film breakdowns