Jarrett Allen dropped into Cleveland’s lap as Houston and Brooklyn saw the all-star level big as a cap-clogging salary, instead of arguably the best trade piece that Houston could have received in the Harden trade. Evan Mobley’s unique combination of mobility, length, shooting touch, and feel for the game made him a unique prospect, and potentially a generational two-way talent. Houston passed, favoring Jalen Green’s special shot-making potential, causing Mobley to slip to 3, where the Cavs were happily waiting.
Koby Altman held the 5th overall pick in back-to-back years, plucking Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro out of the heap of high-level prospects. Lauri Markkanen’s only positive skill in Chicago was his C&S 3PT shooting; the idea of playing him and the similarly slow-footed Nikola Vucevic in the same frontcourt was doomed from the start. Never a bad idea for teams who aren’t top draws in free agency to look under the hood of former lottery picks, however, especially when the cost is practically non-existent. Lauri joins the Cavs young core as Cleveland says goodbye to fan-favorite, Larry Nance Jr.
The Pelicans prioritized Devonte’ Graham in free agency, suddenly making Lonzo Ball available, confusing some who saw Ball as a well-fitting connector with Zion. Ending up in Chicago, Lonzo immediately upgraded the rotation, bringing in a plus-defender who’s shown he can thrive in an off-ball pass-first role. Alex Caruso says he gave the Lakers a chance to match the Bulls’ offer; L.A. didn’t come close. Chicago adds two high-effort team-first players, reuniting the former Lakers; The Carushow must go on.
Even with his complete offensive skill-set, many saw the DeMar DeRozan trade as a potential overpay. Adding such a huge salary while losing Thad Young, who was holding the defense together by a string, was a gamble. But, this was the type of risk this Bulls team was willing to take, an all-in move on the present after already finding two all-stars (Zach Lavine, Nikola Vucevic) and one dynamic prospect (Patrick Williams) to build around, and, boy, did the Bulls hit big.
Magic fans grew familiar with a playtype that put all Orlando’s starters in the best position to succeed, a Fultz-Vucevic P&R with Fournier/Gordon spotting up and Isaac in the corner/dunker spot. Maybe a similar play-type could work at an even more dynamic level for Chicago’s new core between DeMar DeRozan’s scoring creator abilities in P&R as a driver, passer, foul-drawer, and midrange bucket-getter; Nikola Vucevic stretching defenses to the arc while remaining a great open jump-shot hitter, an elite rebounder, and a sound play-finisher against mismatches in the post; Zach Lavine bringing elite 3pt shooting, highlight jams, quick cuts, and next-level tough shot making; and Patrick Williams’ wildcard potential as a do-it-all defender and slashing, dunking, middy threat.
Chicago decided the time to compete was now, cashing in first round picks and role players for a sturdier top-end win-now rotation. Cleveland hit on move after move, accelerating their ability to compete from rebuild to revamped. Neither team was a lock to make the playoffs, let alone hold homecourt in the first round, yet if the season ended today, the Central Division would hold seeds 2-4.
League Ranks via Cleaning The Glass
The 3-seed Cavs hold a 19-12 record with the 4th-best point-differential in the league (+6.3), ranking 2nd in Defense (103.9) and 16th in Offense (110.2)
Cleveland has a defensive identity anchored by Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, and Jarrett Allen, ranking 2nd in defensive effective field goal shooting (50% eFG%), 9th at forcing turnovers (15.1% TOV%), and 1st at not fouling the opponent. (14.9 FT Rate)
The Cavs’ offense is built on ball-movement more than any one player. Darius Garland’s scroing creator abilities and Ricky Rubio running the show in pick-and-rolls opens up a lot with Jarrett Allen rolling to the rim, Evan Mobley short-roll passing and creating good shots out of the post, Markkanen spotting up and even involving Kevin Love in creative ways against bench units with handoffs, while the ball always stays looking for the open man.
As a team, the Wine and Gold rank 6th in eFG%, 9th in rim-efficiency, and 9th in e3P% (54%), via Dunks and Threes. Even though the Cavs’ offense turns the ball over a lot (15.9% TOV%, 28th), they shoot efficiently from the field (53.7% eFG%, 7th) and draw fouls at a high volume (19.1 FT Rate, 9th)
The 2-seed Bulls hold a 19-10 record with the 6th-best point-differential in the league (+4), ranking 7th in Offense (111.9) and 11th in Defense. (107.9)
Chicago is a Top-12 offense while taking the 6th-highest rate of midrangers in the league and the 2nd-to-last 3PT rate in the league. How? By building an offense around elite scoring talents who are great at midrange shots, with efficient floor-spacers and team-first decision-makers keeping the ball on a string, ranking 5th in Midrange shooting efficiency (44.1%) and 3rd in e3P% (55.6%), via Dunks and Threes.
Chicago ranks 15th in defensive effective field goal shooting (52.6% eFG%), 8th at forcing turnovers (15.6% TOV%), and 14th in defensive reb% (25.4%), but foul at the 10th-worst rate in the league (18.7)
Compared to Cleveland, Chicago’s offense is much safer with the ball, ranking 7th in TOV% (13.2%). The Bulls are shooting well from the field, ranking 12th in EFG% (53.2%), and drawing fouls at a similar rate, ranking 8th in FT Rate. (19.5 FT).
The Cavs Are Fun
With Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Isaac Okoro on the floor in 195 MIN, the Cavs have a 95.61 Defensive Rating and a +12.92 Net Rating.
Allen is carving out an All-Star case for himself. Garland is close behind, earning MIP consideration. Mobley wants ROY. Okoro might join Mobley on an All-Defensive team.
Okoro is a bulldog defender who’s been flashing his athletic gifts in spurts on the other end, seeing more time at the 2 with Sexton out and showing a little bounce with the ball in his hands.
Jarrett Allen’s posting career-highs of 17 PPG, 11 REB, 10% AST%, 1.4 STL%, 18.2% USG%, 4.5 BPM and 2.3 BLKs+STLs, shooting 70% from the field on 10 shots per game. Allen’s P&R Roll-Man 1.19 PPP on a high volume (3 poss/game) helps create good looks, especially with Ricky Rubio having every precision pass in the book.
Jarrett’s defense is no joke, flanking Mobley as another premier rim-protector. Defense is about effort, and Jarrett’s two-way effort and effective rim-running is finally being rewarded with real orginzational support and opportunity.
Darius Garland is revving up as the offensive engine of this team. Darius is too dirty from deep, hitting 37.8% of his 4.1 pull-up threes per game and 41.1% of his 2.5 catch-and-shoot threes per game this season. His development as a halfcourt shot-creator is apparent, averaging career-highs of 19 PPG, 7 APG, 48% FG%, 90% FT%, 59.3% TS%, 35% AST%, 1.5 BPM.
By no means just a shooter, Darius uses his shooting gravity to attack the paint, score at the rim, and involve his teammates, with his 35% AST% ranking 11th in the league. Garland drives to the hole the thirteenth most of any NBA player (14.7), scoring 52.7% FG% on drives and passing out of them 50% of the time. In one-on-one, Garland can go toe-to-toe with anyone, scoring 1.16 PPP on 2 ISO possessions per game, ranking 3rd in efficiency at that volume behind DeRozan and Ja.
Another fun connection is the rubberband effect of a deflection from the Cavs frontcourt turning into a quick highlight play on the other end. Okoro, Mobley, and Allen fly around, while a DG transition triple is always welcome.
Kevin Love saw his role change from the only All-Star on an abandoned roster to a sixth man scorer in a deep frontcourt. KLove is backing down mismatches, reunited in pick-and-pops with Rubio’s mystical playmaking abilities. The 2013 T-Wolves have been reimagined as a second quarter bulldozer running bench units off the floor.
With Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio on the floor in 377 MIN, the Cavs have a +11.31 Net Rating with an 111.18 O-Rating and 99.87 D-Rating, via PBP Stats.
Rubio has 22 3PT Assists to Love, his most to any teammate. The only player with more total assists form Ricky Rubio than Love (38) is Jarrett Allen (42), via PBP Stats.
More than anything else, Evan Mobley is the connecting force. The defensive prowess he flashed at USC between his mobility, agility, and feel for the game has translated directly to the next level, where Slim Duncan is instantly the anchor of an NBA defense, the sun of the Cavs’ orbit. Already one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA as a rookie, the big man is living up to the hype.
Offensively, there’s some room to grow; which means an exciting future for Cavs fans to see that development up close every night, rather than worry too much about year one box score numbers. Scottie Barnes can be a special dynamic two-way force, Cade Cunningham can grow into an all-around scoring creator, Franz Wagner can steal the crown as the human swish army knife, all while Evan Mobley fine-tunes his jumper and contests everything in sight.
Fun Fact: As of 12/5, Mobley had more 2PT shot contests than any rookie had total contests.
Mobley’s already one of the best rim-protectors in the league, tied for 6th in blocks per game. (1.8) Evan Mobley contests 16.5 shots per game, the 5th most in the league, with a dFG% of 43.1%.
Evan shows off his reach, timing, and awareness protecting the rim in help defense, often baiting opponents into drives before erasing their shot attempt from existence.
Driving at Mobley is like attacking a Kirby who’s holding down the B button.
consider yourself ABSORBED:
As of today, Mobley is as mobile of a defender as any in the NBA. This isn’t hyperbolic projection, this is Year 1 production. He yearns for the challenge of guarding quicker perimeter players. Evan is everywhere, at all times.
Mobley’ sound decision-making as a short-roll passer and post-up shot-creator is clear, and his shooting touch is sweet. Scoring 0.8 PPP as Roll-Man in 2.9 P&Rs per game, Evan’s probably seeing an appropriate amount of volume there as a rookie, touching the ball at the elbow 4.7 times per game, the 12th-most in the league.
His frontcourt teammates balance out his rookie skillset with the reliability of Jarrett Allen’s rolling and floor-stretching firepower of Love and Markkanen in the frontcourt. The threat of Darius Garland’s pull-up shooting in P&R/DHO sets with Mobley’s feel is a scary thought for defensive cooridnators everywhere going forward.
Already averaging 0.9 PPP on 1.2 ISOs per game and 0.96 PPP on 1.8 Post Ups, and with a shooting line of 47-33-77, Evan Mobley could quickly become a lethal NBA scoring option if he maintains his efficiency as volume increases. Unpredictable scorers who can beat defenses in different ways are key for deep playoff runs, while the players who fit that bill and dominate defensively breathe rarified air. As Mobley develops with experience and his jumper becomes more consistent, Evan will only grow stronger into a one-of-a-kind two-way superstar.
The Bulls Are Back
"I think the midrange game is a lost art and DeMar is one of the guys who mastered that." - Carmelo Anthony
Spearheaded by DeMar DeRozan’s MVP Conversation level-play and Zach Lavine’s unfathomably tough shot-making, The Bulls offense is heating up. Vucevic stretches the floor, hits open jumpers, takes advantage of post-up mismatches, and generally makes the right play, completing a set of three versatile shot-makers surrounded by team-first connectors and play-finishing slashers.
With all five of Alex Caruso-Zach Lavine-Lonzo Ball-DeMar DeRozan-Nikola Vucevic on the court, the Bulls have a +11.67 Net Rating, in only 95 MIN of action together, via PBP Stats.
With the otherworldly play of Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokoumnpo, DeRozan probably ends up fighting for 5th place votes off the feel good story of the Bulls being back. DeMar looks as cool as he ever has pulling up for those elbow middies in the red Chicago jerseys, reminding everyone of how the Bulls first staked their claim as a household name.
Derozan’s 26.8 PPG ranks 5th in the NBA. Shooting 50-33-90 on 8 FTA, DeMar does most of his damage in the midrange.
No one takes more shots between 15-19 ft than DeMar (5 FGA), where he converts 48.9% FG%, and the only players who take more shots between 10-14 ft than DeRozan (54.5% on 4.2 FGA) is Durant (50.3% on 5.9 FGA) and Embiid (38.4% on 4.3 FGA)
Ben Taylor just dropped a great video breaking down how DeMar DeRozan and Kevin Durant are lighting up the league one middy at a time, yet creating those shots for themselves in different ways, highlighting DeMar’s diverse dribble move bag.
“Since the average halfcourt possession in 2022 is worth just under a point, a 53% 2PT shot is like getting a typical possession from the best halfcourt offense in the league.
No reliable stat ever said the midrange was inefficient, they just said the midrange was inefficient for weak shooters.” - Ben Taylor
DeMar’s 0.97 PPP ranks 10th among all players averaging 5+ P&R possessions per game as the ball-handler. Among players averaging 2+ ISOs per game, DeRozan’s 1.31 PPP ranks 2nd in the league behind only Ja Morant. (1.35 PPP)
DeRozan is driving the 11th-most times per game (15.3 drives), scoring the 5th-most on drives (10.4 PTS on 53.4% Drive FG%), and passing out of drives the 24th-most often. (5.6 per game)
DeMar is spotting up 3.9 poss/game for 0.96 PPP and scoring 1.25 PPP on 0.6 cuts per game. The only Bull with a higher AST% than DeRozan (20.7%) is Lavine (21.1%)
DeMar’s taken his scoring efficiency to another level, now one of the most reliable halfcourt scoring creators in the NBA after expanding his game as a playmaker every year and transitioning to more of a small-4 than an oversized-2 in San Antonio.
Shooting 51.4% eFG% on 10.6 pull-up jumpers per game, DeMar DeRozan is one of the most-efficient pull-up shooters in the NBA through the first third of the season, ranking 13th among players taking 3+ pull-up FGA per game.
One other area where DeRozan and Lavine have thrived? The Clutch.
DeMar’s 8.2 PPG in the 4th QTR ranks 1st in the NBA. DeRozan is shooting 55.6% eFG% in the clutch, taking 27 2pters and 0 3pters, making 100% of his 21 FTA, giving him a clutch 70.1% TS%. (clutch in this case = final five minutes of +/- 5pt games)
DeRozan’s scoring efficiency in the clutch ranks 3rd among NBA players with 20+ clutch FGA behind Mike Conley and Chris Paul.
Showing off against the Lakers the other night, DeRozan scored 19 of his 38 PTS in the fourth, again putting the team on his back late in the game.
"For our guys, when the ball's in his hands, there's a calmness." - Billy Donovan on DeMar DeRozan
Zach Lavine finally has some running mates. Developing into a premier 3pt shooter and walking bucket for the Bulls, critics quickly pointed to “empty stats”. Now leading a playoff team, his points count! Lavine’s 26 PPG ranks 8th in the NBA.
Shooting 39-49-85, Zach is hitting on every level. The only other players making 39% 3P% on 7+ 3PA are Steph Curry, LaMelo Ball, Patty Mills, Fred VanVleet, Grayson Allen, and Lavine’s teammate, Lonzo.
Lavine’s 1.4 PPP in transition ranks 1st among players with 3+ poss/game. Finding opportunities on fast-breaks and kickouts, Lavine’s hitting a blistering hot 44% of his C&S 3PA, ranking 22nd among players taking 2+ C&S 3PA. Zach’s 34.6% 3P% (4.7 Pull-Up 3PA) ranks T-10th among players taking 3 Pull-Up 3PA.
Lavine joins DeRozan as the two most efficient 4th quarter ISO options this year, according to Todd Whitehead of Synergy Sports:
Derrick Jones Jr., Tony Bradley, Ayo Dosunmu, and Javonte Green are holding their own defensively, filling out the rotation when called upon. DJJ scores efficiently slashing to the rim against scrambling defenses, while Javonte and Ayo are hitting their shots from deep.
Chicago’s defense was a question mark entering the season. Vooch helps more as a box-out threat for rebounds than actually stopping anyone from scoring. DeRozan and Lavine make the effort, but aren’t really positives on that end either. Patrick Williams was a possible savior, yet has only played 5 games. Where’s the defensive foundations?
With TOV% being the only defensive four factor ranked in the Top-10 for Chicago, jumping passing lanes and making hustle plays like running off deflections are playing a big part in the Bulls’ success this year.
Top-5 in the league in deflections? Alex Caruso (3.6, 3rd) and Lonzo Ball (3.3, 5th)
Caruso is a walking pickpocket, ranking 2nd in the NBA in Steals (2.1), slightly behind only Jimmy Butler and Gary Trent Jr. (2.2). Among players defending 10+ FGA per game, Alex Caruso ranks 5th in DFG%. (39%)
Caruso hasn’t just been the Bulls’ best defender with PatWill sidelined, Alex is a legitimate candidate for All-Defense. Between his quick hands, timing, defensive feel, and effort, Alex Caruso is an elite perimeter defender who plays above his weight class defending in the post.
Lonzo Ball’s reworked jump shot looks great, keeping defenses’ attention by hitting a whopping 41.7% of his 5.4 catch-and-shoot threes and 42.9% of his 1.9 pull-up three-pointers this year.
Originally viewed as a traditional point guard, Lonzo’s settled into a secondary connector role that allows him to “just play ball”. His 19.7% AST ranks 63rd among all players. Lonzo wants to keep the ball moving, to get the best shot for the team, more than he shows a desire to attack the paint off the dribble himself.
Lonzo’s 1.7 steals per game is tied with LeBron James, Mattise Thybulle, Tyrese Haliburton, De’Anthony Melton, and Donovan Mitchell for 9th in the NBA.
Seeing plays before they happen and remaking them as his own, Lonzo Ball thrives in chaos. Jumping passing lanes and launching full-court dimes to leaking-out teammates comes second nature to ‘Zo; he’s been playing that up-tempo style since his days at Chino Hills with his brother, LaMelo, and former teammate, Onyeka Okongwu.
The BBall Index’s impact metric, LEBRON, rates the Bulls’ backcourt duo as first-team All Defense, literally the top two defensive guards in the NBA this season, as well as projecting Evan Mobley for a 1st-team All Defense forward spot.
In the 453 minutes where Caruso and Ball have played together, the Bulls have a 104.73 D-RTG and a +9.66 Net Rating, via PBP Stats.
Only so many franchises actually contend in any given year; whether or not either of these two teams make it past the second round is neither here nor there; these are two good basketball teams who leave it all on the floor every night.
While some fans might see middling purgatory, sometimes a team craves relevancy. Adding good basketball players on the margins is a good idea for nearly any situation, and, sometimes, a good process can speed up a team’s timeline.
The Milwaukee Bucks may be reigning champs, but the Central Division is no longer a one-man show. These Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls teams are here to play.
Data sources: NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, BBall Index, Cleaning The Glass, PBP Stats, Dunks and Threes as of 12/20/21 unless otherwise noted.
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