Chef Wagner’s Kitchen
How is Franz Wagner so effective as a rookie in the NBA?
“He likes to cook, he’s a little chef!”
- Franz Wagner’s mother, Beate, describing a young Franz.
Welcome to Chef Wagner’s kitchen.
Open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.
No one goes hungry here. Everyone leaves with a serving.
Among all rookies, Franz ranks 5th in scoring (13.6 points), T-8th in dimes (2.8 assists), 8th in boards (4.3 rebounds), T-4th in steals (1.1 steals), 9th in swats (0.5 blocks), 2nd in Estimated Plus-Minus (+0.9), and 3rd in playing time (31.6 minutes).
Overall, Franz is scoring 52.5% TS%. Among rookies with ten games played, Franz’ 79.2% FT% ranks 8th, his 43.6% FG% ranks 11th, and his 36.6% 3P% ranks 7th.
Franz Wagner has already joined Cole Anthony, Victor Oladipo, Jameer Nelson, Penny Hardaway, and Shaquille O’Neal as the only Orlando Magic rookies to ever record a 25p-5r-5a game in the association.
So, how exactly is Franz Wagner so effective as a twenty-year old rookie in the NBA?
I’m excited to share that biomechanic guru and scouting twitter legend, the one and only @Polarfall, is here to help me find that out.
“Franz’ outstanding point to me is always eye angle.” - @Polarfall
Sometimes, Franz will clear out for a post-up far out in the corner before walking right into a layup due to pristine positioning. Being where Franz cooks defenders best, this area on the court can now be referred to as “Chef Wagner’s Kitchen”. Notice anything interesting about his form of attack?
“He didn't watch rim at all. His eye angle not watching rim and his vision angle is wide and open to potential pass route + scanning potential help defense coming.” - @Polarfall
The German Hammer
Once upon a time, Franz Wagner looked hesitant on the basketball court. He rarely looked for his own shot at Michigan, scoring more points now as an NBA rookie (13.6) than two years in college. (12.0) He watched his shot clank off the back of the rim through most of summer league.
Then, Franz Wagner played his first NBA game. His shot suddenly started falling through the net. His defense, awareness, and feel never wavered. He was scoring with ease, even if it usually came with the help of a screen.
One day, out of nowhere, it happened. Franz saw the open lane and pounced. Wagner rose up and brought the house down. The German Hammer had taken his first victim.
Now, poster highlight slams have become a regularity for Franz Wagner. Where did Franz find this explosion? Or, is the court just finally wide enough for Wagner to open up his bag of tools and drop the hammer?
Baby Looney Tunes
Sharing an average age of 21 years old, the Orlando Magic’s Day 1 starting unit continues to hold its own against NBA competition, ranking fifth in the NBA in Net Rating (+11.4) among all lineups with 100 minutes:
Cole Anthony - Jalen Suggs - Franz Wagner - Wendell Carter Jr. - Mo Bamba
Breaking up the Orlando Magic starters into 3-man combos by Net Rating, we see Cole Anthony stand out, especially when sharing the court with either of Jalen Suggs or Franz Wagner. Every 3-man combo of Orlando Magic Starters has played at least two hundred minutes together.
Go-Go Gadget Arms
Franz seems to always be in right place at the right time defensively, hustling to make rotations. Wagner uses his length, timing, and anticipation to break up passing lanes, to make digs at the ball, and to force turnovers.
Franz Wagner has the sixth-most deflections per game (2.2) and is tied for the fifth-most contested shots per game (6.0) among all rookies.
Does anything stand out about Franz Wagner’s defensive awareness and ability to swipe at the ball so often without fouling?
“Deflections are the same. Vision is open. Awkward sense of moving and timing.
Kinda offbeat as a defender stance. He knows it himself. Franz is really smart.”
- @Polarfall
Wagner isn’t just creating loose balls via deflections; he’s taking advantage of the turnovers he creates. Scoring 1.14 PPP in transition, Franz is tied for 42nd in Transition PPP among players averaging two fast breaks per game.
Franz Wagner can often be found putting a halt to opposing fast breaks, too.
"Even feels like he has eyes in the back of his head sometimes.” - @Polarfall
The Wagner - Carter Connection is a thing.
With six alley-oops under their belt, Wagna Carta has found the holy grail. Franz Wagner has hit Wendell Carter Jr. with an assist at the rim fifteen times this season, the most rim-assists between any pair of Magic teammates, and the 36th-most rim-assists between any duo in the NBA. While Cole Anthony has more total assists to Wendell, Franz has developed clear chemistry with the big man in pick-and-roll. Once Carter sets up Franz with a screen, Chef Wagner starts slicin’ n’ dicin’.
Fun Fact: Franz Wagner has assisted Wendell Carter Jr. at the rim as many times (15) as Khris Middleton to Giannis Antetokoumnpo and Rajon Rondo to Anthony Davis this season.
Franz’s and Wendell’s pick-and-roll chemistry is developing nicely, do you notice any subtleties to their movements that helps that connection?
“It's also related with his eye and neck angle. He rarely watches Wendell Carter Jr. or the potential pass route. He has automatic/default fake skill in his eye gaze angle.
Can make advantage because defender feel strange. Defenders can't react quickly due to his fixed eye neck angle, and he's getting better as he gains experience.” - @Polarfall
Anytime Franz Wagner sees a glimpse of an opportunity to penetrate the paint, he strikes. Franz is driving to the rim just under eight times per game. Wagner’s scoring five points per game on drives and passing out of them just under two times per game.
If he can draw multiple defenders’ attention for a kick-out by dribbling right at them, he’ll do it. If he beats his defender around a screen, he’ll enter a crab-dribble stance to keep that defender behind him so he and the roller have a 2-on-1 advantage.
Watch how Franz Wagner is able to put his defender in jail by sneaking past him in P&R without fully accelerating to the rim, creating a 2-on-1 for himself and Wendell:
What is it specifically about Wagner’s passing ability that stands out?
“Lots of great skip passers, like Luka, don’t look at certain angle or views, but Franz definitely has some unorthodox body deception.
With rhythm, he plays like an actor, disguising his purpose to the defender.” - @Polarfall
Franz is only posting a rate of 0.78 PPP for Orlando as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which is T-72nd in league efficiency among players running two P&Rs per game. In 31 DHO possessions involving Franz, The Magic are merely scoring 0.48 PPP.
With the growing chemistry between Wagner and Carter, plenty of room for optimism exists that these marks will improve. The more game reps Franz and Wendell rack up running these sets, the less time it will take for The Wagner-Carter Connection to establish itself among the league’s premier pick-and-roll duos.
Fundamental Franz
When you look up fundamentals in a textbook, right below the big image of Tim Duncan, you’ll find a tiny picture of a young Chef Wagner cooking up new recipes.
So, what’s Franz’ secret formula?
“He has no blind angle. Has wide and various pass valves and drive routes.
Awareness + anticipation + automatic fake effect (eye neck gaze) make him a better scanner and decision maker; that's why my best fit for Franz was Golden State.Body skill is not outstanding as much as that scan and decision harmony.”
- @Polarfall
Franz can already deploy so many tools. He looks for the best shot for himself and his teammates, making the right play for the team. He’ll finish with either hand anywhere around the rim, including tough reverse layups. The left-handed runner has become a staple. The Franz FLOATA is a thing of beauty. The middy pull-up is in the works.
Chef Wagner is serving up a slice of effort with a side of hustle, rating near the top of the league in scoring efficiency on Cut plays. Franz’s 1.43 Cut PPP ranks 1st among rookies, 38th among all players, and 18th among players with 20+ Cut possessions.
Fun Fact #2: The Wagner bros are cut from the same cloth. Moritz Wagner, Franz’ brother, is scoring at the same efficiency (1.43 PPP) on the exact same number of Cut possessions! (21)
In fifteen off-screen possessions, Franz is scoring 0.93 PPP, a rate that’s tied for 50th in the league. Wagner is averaging 4.2 Spot Ups per game and scoring 1.1 Spot Up PPP, ranking T-39th in efficiency among players spotting up 3+ times per game.
While he continues to improve as the season progresses, Franz has been far more effective as an off-ball 3PT threat than on-ball shooter. Franz is knocking down a clean 40.5% of his 3.1 C&S threes, tied for the 37th most efficient rate in the NBA among players attempting 3+ C&S 3PA, while hitting only 23.5% of his 17 Pull-Up 3PA.
Franz Wagner stretching the floor unlocks his ability to attack closeouts. When defenses are scrambling, Franz is near-impossible to stop, as he’s more than capable of shooting, dribble-driving, or making the extra pass on a whim.
The lack of pull-up effectiveness could be one reason his DHO and P&R scoring efficiency numbers are lower than other play-types; until defenses respect his shot, they’ll duck screens and squeeze passing lanes, forcing Franz to prove he can beat them from deep.
Honing in on the development of his pull-up jumper could accelerate Franz’ role from a secondary creator to a primary initiator for the offense, potentially being the difference between a dependable starter and a future all-star in this league.
Chef Wagner is carving up defenses with precision.
Time to let Franz cook or get out of his kitchen.
Data Sources: PBP Stats, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Dunks and Threes
(as of 12/05/21 unless otherwise noted)
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