Clash of the Titans: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokoumnpo Race to the Finish for NBA MVP
Defining the criteria for NBA's Most Valuable Player in this year's battle of the bigs
M.V.P.
Three little letters that drive a full year of NBA discourse mere weeks into the season.
The MVP Conversation is packed this time around, but for some reason, one of the clear favorites has become an afterthought. “The MVP Conversation” itself can be a funny phrase, because it usually just means the fight for fifth-place votes, normally going to a fun point guard whose team exceeds expectations. Congrats in advance, Ja!
So, who’s the MVP Favorite after the All-Star break?
For ten games or so, Steph Curry’s Dub Dynasty was back.
Then, Kevin Durant began lighting up the league again.
DeMar DeRozan started making national noise over Christmas Break.
LeBron James single-handedly kept the Lakers afloat inbetween AD injuries.
Ja Morant gained steam by leading a renaissance for the new-look Run ‘n’ Gun Grizz.
Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Revenge Tour Suns started running away with the West
The NBA’s MVP criteria are left hazy, perhaps on purpose, to inspire discussion for its telenovela-esque drama cycle of viral headline quotes and daily #embracedebate shows. What defines an MVP for one voter can be totally different for another. Is this good? bad? Maybe it’s best this way, rather than everyone agreeing over a single metric, spoiling the fun of the classic sports debate. What does the MVP mean to you?
The Most Valuable Player?
The Best Overall Player Up To That Point?
The Most Impactful Two-Way Player?
The Most Memorable Player From That Season?
First player you’d choose to make a shot or win a game against the peaceful aliens who are just tryna hoop?
How do you define a player’s value? Are you accounting for the total two-way impact the player has on the team winning games? How much do you weigh that player’s production, volume, and efficiency against his role, opportunity, and usage? How are you measuring the talent of a player’s teammates vs. the talent of the opposition in every game, or even every possession to be most accurate?
Does being apart of a good team matter more than tradition suggests it should? Which scenario is more impressive to you: a team’s culture being built around a player’s strengths so that player can take a night off and the team stays in sync without him, or a player being so impactful that he wins just as many games with a roster that would rival the island of misfit toys as his on/off splits break the scales?
For those who clearly define their MVP criteria, this choice can actually seem simple. For many, LeBron is the best player in any hypothetical scenario, so why not give him the MVP every season? Kevin Durant’s been the most reliable halfcourt bucket for who knows how long; he can get his shot off over three fellow aliens. So, isn’t he the obvious answer?
how the media discusses players careers fluctuates strangely., Some national media voters will enjoy the rise and root for a player to repeat as MVP, praising the difficulty it takes to improve upon an MVP season, only to turn around and be the first to clock-in for the tear-down, becoming bored or “fatigued” when the all-too-legendary three-MVPS-in-a-row club comes up. Does anyone know why Giannis was hardly an MVP finalist last year, yet clearly a favorite in all three years surrounding that one?
At the end of the day, each MVP is about remembering one regular season. The playoffs are not a factor for a regular season award, even if we’d like to carry over the post-season narratives from seasons prior to justify the choice.
Historically, the player with the best stats on a top-two team in either conference are favorites. On a rare occasion, a Russell Westbrook breaks through to take the trophy by storm on a lower seed, but that involved making history.
Westbrook’s year serves as the perfect example where the memories made can outweigh the acutal on-court impact. Many argued that James Harden was the more efficient scoring creator on a historic Rockets offense, or that Kawhi Leonard’s legendary giant-handed defense offered more two-way impact, that either superstar was a flat-out better player than Russell Westbrook that season. And they very well may be right!
Yet, outside of NBA geeks like myself who remember these debates like yesterday, most people will remember that season as the year Russ did the unthinkable, becoming the first NBA player to average a triple-double since Oscar Robertson, let alone upping the scoring average to 30 PPG and hitting wild game-winning shots on the regualar while doing it.
Sports boil down to making memories. Teammates in the fox hole grinding through wins and losses. Fans jumping out of their seats. Franchises raising banners.
So, where’s the tradeoff? How do we balance the production on the court with the stories being told off of them?
This is where it gets tricky. Narrative and hype surround all aspects of the league’s media coverage; both add intrigue, but what about the actual basketball?
If we asked 100 NBA fans which player they’ll remember first and foremost from the 2022 season, how many would answer with Ja Morant or Steph Curry?
No one can say who’s right or wrong. Ja and Steph are certainly in “the MVP conversation”, but it’s hard to look past the performance of three premier giants this season.
The level of play from these three superstars has set them apart by just about every impact metric: Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokoumnpo are dominating both ends of the floor, while Nikola Jokic continues to make his case as the best passing big man and one of the most proficient scoring creators to ever play.
The NBA’s schedule-makers trojan horsed us with an Embiid-Antetokoumnpo matchup on the last night of games before the All-Star break. In spite of possible resting shenanigans, we still got a glimpse of what makes these stars shine so brightly in sequences like these:
Joel Embiid spent the game fighting through triple-teams on his way to a final box score of 42 PTS — 15 REB — 5 AST.
On this play, Embiid contests the closeout, strips the drive from behind, and runs the floor for the slam.
32p-11r-9a-3s-1b and the W for Antetokoumnpo?
Just another Thursday Night TNT Game for The Greek Freak.
In this one clip, Giannis contests a shot and dives for the loose ball when he could have let it go out of bounds, gets up and sprints back when he could have taken time to recover, and attacks the rack with a head of steam before persistently pouncing for two offensive boards and the eventual putback when he could have given up or complained for a call.
No foul? No problem.
Giannis went from struggling with his jump shot to pulling out counter fadeaways from his post-move bag. The willingess to keep shooting from deep through air-balls and inefficiency should pay off in the long haul with defenses respecting his range based on the willingness to let it fly alone; high volume can trick defenders when they should probably prioritize their focus on contesting shooters with high efficiency.
Joel Embiid’s dominance last season annointed him among the MVP favorites before going down to injury, inevitably leaving Jokic as the runaway winner by the end. Embiid made it to 51 regular season games played the past two seasons; while Nikola put up MVP numbers for all 72 in a shortened season. For those 51 games, though, many believed Embiid was the most unstoppable force in the league.
This year is its own season, though.
Forgetting the ups and downs of playoff past, putting aside awards won and lost, who’s produced the most this season?
Decide for yourself.
Player A
29.6 PTS | 11.2 REB | 4.5 AST/3 TO | 2.4 STL+BLK
shooting 49.5—36.9—81.3
Player B
29.4 PTS | 11.2 REB | 6 AST/3.3 TO | 2.4 STL+BLK
shooting 54.7—30.9—72.1
Player C
26 PTS | 13.8 REB | 7.9 AST/3.8 TO | 2 STL+BLK
shooting 57—37.2—80.8
Joel’s already stacked up 46 games played this year on unfathomable numbers. Somehow, someway, someone else is producing an eerily similar statline: The Greak Freek. Player A is Joel, Player B is Giannis. That’s right; two superstars on contending teams are posting nuclear box scores of 30-11-5-2 on the nightly.
And, yet…
The Joker is playing at whatever level is above “nuclear”.
The Godfather 2 to their Godfather.
The Super Saiyan 3 to their Super Saiyan 2.
The Dark Knight to their Batman Begins.
The amount of skill and feel Nikola Jokic brings to the game of basketball is hard to quantify. Jokic’s best trait might just be his processing speed as a decision-maker.
He may take his time to walk the ball up the floor, but once Nikola sets up shop, the time it takes Jokic to read and react to defenses is a joke. A handful of alltime greats see plays before they happen; (LeBron, Rondo, Draymond, CP3) Nikola is one of them.
Sending a double-team to the perimeter? Good luck, AG’s already cut to the rim for a one-pump slam dunk. Leaving Nikola single-covered? No problem, there’s always an inch of space to pull up for a one-legged Dirk fadeaway.
Jokic is averaging three fewer points per game, but he’s grabbing three more boards, dishing out more assists, and scoring more effectively in nearly every situation. While Embiid and Giannis technically have better records on higher seeds in the east, in reality, their teams only have three more wins than Jokic’s.
Overall, Nikola Jokic is scoring 1.088 PPP in 21.2 halfcourt possessions per game this season; for reference, that’s the same scoring rate as Kevin Durant, who is putting up 1.086 PPP in 22.7 halfcourt possessions per game this season. (data via Synergy Sports)
Antetokoumnpo takes the biggest hit on this breakdown, with his highest-volume scoring plays being less efficient than the other two in the same sets (see: Post Ups, ISOs). However, on the high-energy off-ball motion sets in the play-finishing roles of P&R Roll-Man, Putback Guy, and Guy Who Cuts to the Rim, Giannis thrives.
Other than Kevin Durant’s 1.17 PPP on 2.7 postups per game, no one in the NBA scores as efficiently out of the post as Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic this season, yet their styles couldn’t feel further apart.
Embiid plays a physically dominant yet incredibly skilled game, gliding through the lane on powerful, acrobatic dunks with a mastery of moves to pull out of his bag.
As the P&R Roll Man in 165 possessions, Embiid scores 1.133 PPP. In the 32 times where Joel’s rolled to the basket in P&R, he averages 1.53 PPP; in the 130 times he’s popped out of a pick this season, he scores 1.031 PPP.
Joel lives on the left block, racking up a ridiculous 441 possessions. While Embiid does the majority of his damage in the post (29.6% of all playtypes), he can be found anywhere on the court at any given moment, trying just about any move imaginable. Joel will pull-up for a middy, pop for three, or pump and drive into the jam.
Embiid’s 0.982 PPP on 218 ISOs ranks in the 72nd percentile.
In his 142 spot up possessions, Joel averages 1.077 PPP.
The viral clip of a seven-foot tall Joel Embiid pulling off moves in the midrange and post area cut up with variations of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant doing the same moves is not as crazy as it sounds. It’s about time Hakeem handed off the dream shake.
A few metrics suggest something historic could be happening right in front of us, anointing this Nikola Jokic season into the company of your favorite player’s most impactful season, according to some plus-minus based “vorps and schmorps”, as Zach Lowe would say.
Speaking of, here’s a look at the Vorps and Schmorps Leaderboard!
Nikola Jokic ranks 1st in BPM, EPM, LEBRON, and RAPTOR, while rounding out the Top-3 in DPM, DRIP, and RAPM. Nikola is scoring at an absurd rate, on insane volume, all while creating crazy-easy looks for everyone around him.
His TS% is a whopping 65.3%!
Jokic’s 32% USG rate puts him in the 98th percentile, while his Assist to Usage ratio ranks in the 99th percentile at a staggering 1.22.
The Denver Nuggets’ Point Differential with Nikola Jokic ON vs OFF is +25.2 points per one hundred possessions!!
Joker’s Wild.
This seven-foot Serbian has the skills of a new school point-guard scoring creator in the plodding body of a traditional old-school center, the same man who decided on his first international flight from Serbia to Denver to quit drinking three liters of Coca-Cola every day because he realized it probably wasn’t the healthiest habit to harbour. “Like, don’t let Coke be stronger than you.” - Nikola Jokic.
Thankfully, Jokic found a new addiction, one where he can share his gifts with the rest of the world:
game-winning dimes
Earlier this season, Jokic found Aaron Gordon across the court out of a double team for the game-winning pass to give Nikola a statline of 49 PTS — 14 REB — 10 AST.
Only a week ago, Jokic dropped 35 PTS — 17 REB — 8 AST while dishing out the game-sealing assist to Monte Morris out of another double-team.
If the people don’t put some respect on The Joker’s name soon, he may just get up and leave one day without telling anyone to go home and pursue his other passion:
horses
Every team deals with injuries, some just more dramatically than others. Missing his #2 Jamal Murray and #3 Michael Porter Jr., Jokic has improved upon his numbers from his MVP season while winning more games in the process. Handling the drama of the Ben Simmons holdout, Embiid put the team on his back for the most consistent MVP-level numbers of his career. With Brook Lopez’ injury timeline uncertain, Giannis might be forced to play the 5 a little more than Milwaukee would like, reducing their rim protection and rebounding, two calling cards for a culture built on its defensive identity.
To fill the glass halfway for a moment, Jamal and MPJ could be back by the playoffs. The Bucks added Serge Ibaka, at the cost of some wing depth. Entering "The Bubble", the Joel Embiid Post-Up and James Harden ISO were tied for the second-best play-call in the league, slightly behind the Damian Lillard ISO. Fast forward to today: Joel Embiid and James Harden play for the same team! Now all Doc has to do is stagger his stars’ minutes…
One of the best things about the state of the NBA in 2022 is the sheer variety of talent and styles taking over the league. Even though the average play has trended towards the perimeter, teams are still winning games the way they want to play. Instead of the league becoming nothing more than a nightly three-point shootout, teams have found different ways to defend, score effectively, and create good looks for themselves.
The Bulls have mastered the midrange with a defensive strategy of pressuring the perimeter while giving up a ton of shots at the rim, whereas the Bucks prefer to give up threes to average or worse 3PT shooters while dropping everyone to protect the rim without fouling.
The Warriors still whip the ball around in motion sets while the Jazz have their staple spread P&R. Brooklyn is built to ISO middy their opponents to death.
The Cavs are playing all sorts of length around the two-way team-first gravity-pull of the franchise cornerstone in Evan Mobley, aka “Slim Duncan”, while the Grizzlies are sprinting past everyone in their path.
The MVP conversation is filled with exciting guards leading their teams to unexpected heights, while the real MVP race looks to be coming down to a battle of the bigs for… *checks notes*… the fourth year in a row.
Data via Cleaning The Glass, Dunks and Threes, Synergy Sports, Basketball Reference, Darko, The BBall Index, The Analyst, Five Thirty Eight, NBA Shot Charts
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