Golden's State's Dub Dynasty
Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors are beating teams up as badly as ever
Chef Curry’s Next Course
Are you not entertained?
Steph Curry has boldly gone where no ball player has gone before. One of the toughest scorers to ever dribble the rock now sits atop the record books.
The debate ended years ago, though just in case there were any holdouts, let’s start here: Steph Curry is officially the greatest shooter of all time.
Steph has now made more three-pointers than any human in the history of hoopers — reaching Ray Allen’s 1st place marker in 545 fewer games.
Watching Steph Curry heat up is an experience unlike any in sports, leaving fans on the edge of their seats with every jumper. Curry pulls up with unfathomable range, attempting jays off the dribble that few would even think to try.
Steph shots are an example of double-think in real time, a momentary lapse in logic where everyone thinks to themselves, “no way he’s taking that shot”, as he rises up, before agreeing with their buddy moments later that, “of course he made that shot, that’s what Steph does!” as it falls through the bottom of the net. That loud shriek you hear every time the ball leaves Steph Curry’s hands is the sound of tens of thousands of fans’ brains breaking as they try to process what just took place in front of them.
Steph’s racked up six 30+ PT games this year, hitting 9 threes in four of them, and tossing in a 50 PT game for good measure. Last season, I compared Steph Curry’s scoring efficiency by play-type to his early MVP years; they all held up, if not improved. This season is no different.
Among players running 5+ P&Rs per game, Steph is one of eight ball-handlers creating over 1.0 points per possession for his team. Driving to the cup 8 times per game, Steph is scoring 49% FG% on drives, while kicking the ball out 40% of the time.
The Warriors don’t run ISO often, yet when Curry is given the opportunity to whip something up from scratch, the chef always comes prepared. Among players averaging 2+ ISOs per game, Steph leads the league in scoring efficiency at 1.4 PPP, tied with Ja Morant.
Does anything keep defensive coordinators up later at night than the idea of Steph Curry curling off a flare screen with Draymond Green surveying from the opposite wing? Curry is involved in a whopping 4.3 off screen possessions per game, with Jayson Tatum next closest at 3.1 per game. Among players averaging 2+ off screen possessions per game, Curry’s 1.4 PPP is the splashiest, with Brandon Ingram and Buddy Hield essentially tied for next closest at 1.25 PPP.
Here’s a look comparing every player’s off screen scoring efficiency this season, visualized by how often they run this play type while on the court, rather than total off screen possessions per game, since Steph nearly laps everyone in per game volume. Magic fans can attest to Terrence Ross’ stagger screen frequency and effectiveness carrying Orlando’s bench unit for years.
Remember, hitting the rim is a miss in Curry’s eyes. Whether he’s pulling up from half or running around repositioning for off-ball looks, Curry has been lights out from deep. One of these days Steph might literally smash the ceiling’s light fixtures on the arc of his jump shot, the closest he’ll get to breaking backboards like Shaq.
Curry’s taking 6 C&S threes per game and making 44% of them! Among players taking over 4 C&S threes per game, Steph ranks fourth in C&S 3P%, trailing Joe Harris (47% on 6 3PA), Karl-Anthony Towns (47% on 5 3PA), and Carmelo Anthony (46% on 6 3PA), while Patty Mills is tied at 44%.
Lower the filter to 3 C&S threes per game for a wider look at the league, and who other but Seth Curry, Steph’s brother, takes the lead at 52%! Seth’s knockdown shooting in handoffs while playing inside out with Joel Embiid beginning last season began to resemble the incredible effectiveness of the J.J. Redick - Joel Embiid DHO duo from back in the day.
Steph Curry is launching 7 pull-up threes per game, converting at a 39% rate, good enough for 3rd in Pull-Up 3P% among players taking 3+ per game, just behind CJ McCollum’s 40% on 4.5 per game and Cole Anthony’s 40% on 3 per game. #ColeBetter
Kevin Durant and Steph Curry lead the league in scoring at just over 28 PPG; walking buckets come in all shapes and sizes. While both are efficient from anywhere on the court, it’s nice to see the contrast in style both reigning on top of the association. On a per game basis, Steph is taking two more shots than Durant and eight more threes than Durant, yet KD is averaging just as many points with a FG% that’s a full 10% higher! The Slim Reaper will always be an unguardable midrange assassin.
The threat of a Steph Curry jump shot begins at half court and extends through the nightmares of his opponents. Any time Steph has the ball, defenses have to react; even when the only hope is to swarm and survive. The primary reason for everything the Warriors do and have ever done revolves around the mere threat that Steph Curry might shoot a basketball. People may be tired of hearing it, but that doesn’t make it any less true: Steph’s gravity is what makes him an all-time great.
With Steph Curry on the court (542 MIN), the Warriors have a +18.54 Net Rating; with Steph Curry off the court (231 MIN), Golden State has a +0.69 Net Rating.
GSW has a +14.31 Net Rating in 383 MIN with both Steph and Draymond ON
GSW has a +2.10 Net Rating in 138 MIN with both Steph and Draymond OFF
via PBP Stats
Draymond being Draymond
While the third star in the Warriors triumverate prepares for his long-awaited comeback in the hyperbolic time chamber, the Draymond to Steph connection is alive and well. Green has assisted Curry 36 times this season, the 6th highest Assist Combo in the league; Draymond has 54 total 3PT assists, ranking 3rd in the NBA.
Fun Fact: Julius Randle assisting Evan Fournier ranks just behind this duo in Total Assists, with Julius setting up Evan 34 times. The only current combo with more direct 3PT Assists between teammates than Green to Curry (25) is Randle to Fournier (27)
via PBP Stats
Draymond is one of one. After seeing Rodman make NBA 75, let alone some current players with half the accolades, it was a little odd seeing Draymond left off, when Green had much more impact as a defender and a playmaker, even though Rodman was a special rebounder on similarly dominant all-time teams.
Draymond Green is the penultimate modern defensive big, agile enough to switch between just about anyone, cerebral enough to always seem two steps ahead as a help defender manipulating offenses, and strong enough to body any one in today’s league, other than perhaps the biggest of the bigs, like Embiid and Giannis.
Teams have spent the last half decade scouting for the next Draymond, to no avail. Plenty of prospects share a similar build, have the ability to switch multiple positions as a base frontcourt defender, and show a willingness to make team-first plays. If anything, Bam Adebayo deserves a shout-out here for his incredible impact as do-it-all defensive anchor and DHO machine, but no one has quite brought the same energy to the hardwood as Draymond Green.
Even when Steph and the first KD-less season was lost to injuries, Draymond didn’t throw in the towel. Green’s defense is as consistent as ever, a great sign after the slightest bit of creakiness seemed to reveal itself during the 5-year dynastic slog.
Green is always aware of what’s coming. Like Rondo and LeBron knowing the other team’s plays before they run them, Green calls out actions before they’re acted upon. Draymond’s reflexes, feel, and understanding of the game helps him lead elite defenses through his first ten seasons; and, now, rather than slowing down, Green’s showing signs of speeding up.
Andre Iguodala’s resurgance
After bouncing between Memphis and Miami, Andre Iguodala is back in the spot where his defensive feel and team-first mindset earned him a Finals MVP. Watching Draymond and Andre stay connected on defense is a thing of beauty, it’s where their genius shines through, convincing enough in real-time that you start to believe telepathy might be real after all. The showboaty no-look passes never get old.
No matter how you slice it, the Warriors are playing better basketball with Andre Iguodala on the court. Here’s some variations of Iguodala’s +/- on the court, as an individual and when paired with Steph and/or Draymond:
The Warriors have a +22.1 Net Rating in 250 minutes with Andre ON the court; Golden State has a +6.97 Net Rating in 331 MIN with Andre OFF the court.
GSW has a +9.23 Net Rating in 49 MIN with all three of Andre/Steph/Draymond ON
GSW has a +16.05 Net Rating in 61 MIN with Andre ON and Steph/Draymond OFF
GSW has a +35.43 Net Rating in 111 MIN with Andre/Steph ON and Draymond OFF
via PBP Stats
Andrew Wiggins doing his best Harrison Barnes impression
Andrew Wiggins is having his moment. After proving to be an efficient wing scorer and solid fit with Steph and Draymond last season, Wiggins has taken another step in the right direction. He’ll never live up to that first pick hype; that doesn’t mean he’s a bad NBA player. In fact, he might be the most average player in the league.
On top of doing more to make defensive rotations and keeping the ball moving within the system, Wiggins has never scored the rock this efficiently, averaging a career high in TS% (58%), FG% (48%), 2P% (57%), FT% (79%), and 3PAr (36% of his FGA are 3PA).
Scoring off the gravity of Curry and vision of Green, Wiggins is thriving in a role similary filled by Harrison Barnes in the original death lineups. While Barnes had a slight edge back then in defense, 3P%, and not turning the ball over, Wiggins is scoring as well or better in just about all areas. Andrew Wiggins gets to the line twice as often, is taking 5 more FGA than Harrison Barnes did without losing efficiency, and is making a higher percentage of 2PT shots while being a bit more of a dynamic scorer overall. Wiggins taking a higher volume of threes and still hitting them at 33% is good enough, shrinking some of the difference in 3PT impact.
More importantly than the direct comparison is Wiggins’ presence as a switchable scoring wing allowing Golden State to play the style that led to this era of dominance: small-ball with Draymond at the 5, two interchangable wings, and two snipers at guard, or from the perspective of building a lineup around Steph, flanking the one man offense in Curry with switchable defenders who can hit wide open shots, make team-first plays, and attack closeouts for layups in 4-on-1 situations, revealing one reason why the Splash Brother pairing with Klay is so hard to guard.
What works for these Warriors might not work for everyone; there is no secret recipe to success. While playing small isn’t necessarily required to win these days, roster construction is best served with malleability. Finding the right mix of scoring, length, defense, passing, feel, and spacing is a goal for any franchise; teams that can go big or small without losing their identity are the most prepared to adapt at any moment. While finding superstar-level unpredictable scorers who are impossible to guard is the main priority for teams looking to go deep in the postseason, roster versatility around those unique shot-creators may be just as important for sustainably contending.
The Youngins
After a brief hiatus traveling at the same speed as an average NBA team, are the Golden State Warriors back to being lightyears ahead? Securing a big contract in the Durant sign-and-trade allowed them to flip said contract (D’Angelo Russell) for a starter (Andrew Wiggins) and a lottery pick. While not competing much in the mean time, the Warriors were able to collect multiple top draft picks, serving either as the bridge to the future or possible trade bait for a disgruntled star.
(this feels like the right to time to bring up how LaMelo could have been the Golden-Gate sized bridge to Golden State’s future. alas…)
Of the three young players, Moses Moody is probably the most NBA-ready for a D&3 role on this current team, the likeliest to make meaningful contributions to any playoff run this year. To some, including myself, Moody is the most prized prospect on the roster, with tantalizing potential off the bounce on top of his two-way tenacity.
James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga are names that hold weight around this league, both with enticing upside that may give them more trade value than play value this season. Kuminga will wow crowds with random bouts of athleticism, looking like a man among boys, flashing his natural gifts from time to time. Being able to use Kuminga on the court at any given moment could prove to be an effective wildcard for Golden State, with little to no expectations for production.
Wiseman’s injury recovery timeline is an unknown. Maybe he ends up a better fit on a high-volume P&R squad, such as setting endless screens for someone like Trae Young, rather than finding his niche in this Warriors motion-centric scheme. Who knows, he was growing into his jumper last season and having a year under his belt can’t hurt. Between these exciting young pieces and Andrew Wiggins’ $32M salary, the Warriors will find themselves in any and all trade talks, intentional or not.
The Other Guys
Warriors fans will tell you their defense is more than just a fire-breathing DPOY, that the unit is making defensive rotations on a string, spearheaded by the smartest defender in the NBA. So when I tell you the player with the highest defensive EPM is someone on this Warriors roster not named Draymond, it comes to no surprise that that league-leader is in fact Gary “The Mitten” Payton II. That’s right, every time this force of energy steals the ball, opposing fans can be heard cursing the “son of a glove” under their breath.
Gary Payton II has been an absolutely tenacious defender, an audaciously bouncy leaper, and presumably gracious for the opportunity. Like Jonathon Simmons popping for the Spurs, sometimes a player hits their peak while finding the right team at the right time, taking a leap from fighting for G-league playing time to contributing on a contender. Hard to find a better fit for GP2 than a team always searching for plus-defenders to throw into Steph’s orbit. Fans can only assume this high-flying jam on Kelly Oubre meant a little more to the Warriors team than the average poster.
Payton’s burst doesn’t just come in handy on fast-break flushes. Gary’s 1.67 PPP on Cuts is tied with Miles Bridges for the 5th-highest in the league; quick actions that use Steph as a decoy and get the ball moving to connectors like Iguodala and Draymond create easy looks for Payton to break away to the rim.
Klay Thompson’s recovery status looms over everything, though more as an eventual addition than concerns about being ready for the playoffs. Assuming Klay returns close to form, it could actually be Jordan Poole who is the single biggest x-factor for this Warriors team’s championship ceiling. Casuals who didn’t see Poole produce in spurts last year might not be fully aware of Poole’s talents, but after dropping back-to-back 30+ point games and averaging 18 PPG on the season, it’s time to dive in.
Jordan Poole is the walking bucket that this hobbled contender needed. Poole has increased shot volume in every season, with his efficiency essentially increasing alongside it across the board. Technically his 3P% has gone down from 35% to 33%, a marginal decrease as he’s upped his volume from 5.4 to 8.1 3PA per game. Poole’s per-36 numbers for this season and last season look identical in the box score (22p-4r-4a-1s on 58% TS%), further revealing that he’s kept up last season’s pace of efficiency as his volume increased.
Brimming with confidence, there are few shots that Poole doesn’t feel comfortable taking; irrational confidence is generally a positive in sports. While it could be an issue in situations where there’s less margin for error, the Warriors playing loose with the ball is practically a part of the team identity at this point. Like Mahomes’ Chiefs, Steph’s high-risk high-reward style can rack up turnovers, but the ability to light up defenses at any moment is normally more than enough to overcome it.
Poole is drilling 36% of his 6 C&S 3PA per game, a positive rate for off-ball shooters, but Jordan is only hitting 24% of his 2 Pull-Up 3PA per game. Poole being an efficient, aggressive shot-taker is exactly what the doctor ordered for these Dubs; focusing more on clean looks rather than the first look would probably be best for winning.
Nemanja Bjelica held a stretch-four stereotype after shooting well in some Kings lineups a few years back that actually had really good net ratings. Now one of eight Warriors shooting 35% or better on C&S threes this year, Nemanja Bjelica looks spry in his new role.
Green giddly describing Bjelica’s off-the-bounce game after playing with him for the first time early on in the season was probably a good sign for his eventual fit as a closeout-attacking floor-spacer and supplementary scoring option in the frontcourt.
International players grow up playing professionally against adults, learning team-first ball-skills from a young age. Now in a system with more freedom to attack closeouts as Steph gets doubled at halfcourt, Belly can show off his full arsenal.
Otto Porter Jr. is finally healthy, back to his status as a respectable D&3 rotation wing; OPJ is switchable on defense and knocks down threes at a 42% rate. Kevon Looney remains a reliable, rim-rolling five who does the dirty work on both ends. Damion Lee looks like another great front-office find, improving over the years into an all-around contributor who’s playing a legit role for this team in 20 MPG. Free Agent pickup Chris Chiozza is hitting 43% of his C&S threes, joining Juan Toscano-Anderson as playable end-of-the-bench fill-ins.
The phrase “playable rotation player” can mean different things to different teams. Vertical alignment between front office, coaches, and star players is the standard goal for franchise competence. As soon as the team identity is created, targeting players who will thrive in specific roles within that system becomes the priority. When an organization has Steph, Draymond, Klay, and Kerr’s motion-centric system as a starting point to build on, defining roles for peripheral players becomes more clear.
The best example of this is the decades of contending Spurs teams ran by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich. In addition to being early on prolonging players’ careers through injury managment resting, one key to the Spurs’ success was defining and targeting the specific types of role players who would fit best in their pass-happy system built around Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, and eventually Kawhi Leonard, the single addition that extended San Antonio’s dynasty for years and created one of everyone’s favorite teams, the 2014 revenge title Spurs. The Boris Diaws of the world are better appreciated as espresso-drinking connectors complementing star players than they are for individual shot-creation in overtasked roles on middling teams.
Team Ranks
Here’s all the areas where the Warriors rank in the Top-10 in the league as a team:
(via Dunks and Threes)
miscellaneous
1st in AST% (70.8%)
2nd in STL% (9.8%)
6th in Pace (100.2)
8th in BLK% (10%)
3rd in opp BLK% (7.9%)
shot distribution
2nd in 3Prt (47.8%)
2nd in MIDrt (16.7%)
6th in RIMrt (35.5%)
offense
1st in eFG% (56.3%)
1st in RIM% (66.5%)
4th in e3P% (55%)
9th in FTrt (23.6)
defense
4th in DRB% (80.1%)
1st in RIMrt (29.2%)
4th in opposing eFG% (49.4%)
5th in opposing e3P% (48.2%)
6th in TO% (15.9%)
Fun Fact #2: Top-10s stop at ten. GSW ranks 11th in FT% (78.9%) and 11th in ORB% (23.3%)
Leading the NBA this season at 15-2, Golden State holds the best point-differential in the league, beating teams by an average of 13.3 points per one hundred possessions. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Dubs rank 1st in defense (101.3 D-RTG) and 2nd in offense. (114.6 O-RTG)
For comparison, the 73-9 Dubs finished with a PD of +11.6, ranking 1st in offense (110.6 O-RTG) and 4th in defense (103.2 D-RTG). We’re only so many games in, but the rest of the league is on notice: the 2021 Warriors are playing at a higher level now than in 2016, the year they set the record for wins in a regular season.
Oh, and Klay should be back by Christmas.
data as of 11/21/21 via Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, PBP Stats, Dunks and Threes, and NBA Stats
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