Is Chet Holmgren 'Too Skinny For The NBA'?
What used to be a valid critique for frail-framed bigs might now be a right of passage.
Every draft cycle, a future lottery pick is pronounced “too skinny for the NBA” before they can legally buy a lottery ticket.
When a hoops phenom shows proven ball-skills and awareness of how to use length effectively as a teenager, the talent and work ethic are clear.
If anything, the one developable factor a player can control more than any other is managing their own body weight. The big question critics seem to skip past is this: how will changing body frames alter the subtle movements of a player’s game?
Plenty of NBA stars looked like skeleton dopplegangers of themselves before hopping on the daily NBA regimen. Giannis, AD, and Embiid were relatively frail before bulking up.
Durant only weighs about twenty pounds more now than he did at Texas. LeBron and Melo decided around age thirty that slimming down could extend their careers; eight seasons later, both are contributing to the Lakers’ rotation.
These next seven names display a range of how players with similar body-types are panning out in the NBA: Mobley, Gobert, Ingram, Porzingis, Bamba, Pokusevski, Bol. All entered the draft process with thin frames, holding similar builds and familiar concerns from scouts about hip movement, post defense struggles, and the capability to put on weight. Most of these players are in rotations, if not stars, so plenty of examples exist of skinny-framed players not only making the league, but owning it.
It’s not that criticisms are wrong; it’s more of a question of how much the cons take away from on-court impact compared to the pros of mobility, versatility, and body control in today’s game. Brute strength still matters, as the strongest survive, but to what degree? Is having a strong post-up defender on the roster as neccessary today as it was in the 90’s?
Haven’t skills like help-side rim-protection, quick hands, and the ability to make smart rotations with active footwork and awareness leapfrogged brute strength as higher priority defensive attributes in modern NBA basketball?
Drafting good basketball players is a priority for every team, but isn’t star-hunting the ultimate goal for teams at the top of the draft, to search for undeniable talent in hopes of a star being born, rather than stargazing at other team’s franchise cornerstones and searching for someone to slow them down?
If making life tough for the game’s most physically dominant players like Embiid and Giannis in the playoffs is the goal when push comes to shove, what’s the full plan? These superstars are too strong and too skilled for single-coverage. Isn’t another option to build a wall with a team of active defenders who know how to use their collective length and feel for the game effectively?
Tough guys who made professional basketball teams in the past off nothing more than said toughness would have a hard time sticking around on rosters today if they lacked the ball-skills to survive. Strong post-defender player types have practically vanished from the league. The days of Bill Laimbeer and Charles Oakley making NBA rotations for intimidation tactics and six fouls in their holster are long gone.
Energetic rebounders like Kenneth Faried watched their value around the league go from starting four to backup five in live time. Defensive aces such as Roy Hibbert who don’t add much offensively on or off the ball went from a playoff necessity to out of the league overnight.
Words like malleability, portability, and versatility have taken over the league. Having few to no holes in one’s game on both sides of the floor now brings more value than being elite at one specific skill, other than the world’s best tough-shot makers.
Masters of none are in; super specialists are out. The traditional power forward position died so the stretch big could live. The strong are making way for the skilled. The era of 5-out basketball is upon us.
Chet Holmgren has a very particular set of skills, super rare for his size, skills that he has acquired over a young career, skills that make him a nightmare for every player he matches up against. Holmgren stands 7’ tall with a 7’5” wingspan.
Let’s start with a simple question:
How many seven-footers on Planet Earth can contest a ball-handler’s drive in P&R drop coverage, recover to block the roller’s shot at the rim, grab the rebound, go coast-to-coast, dribble behind-the-back, and throw down a high-flying slam?!?
First played together in third grade. AAU teammates. Three state titles together in Minniehaha, Minnesota. Two top NBA prospects following each other to Gonzaga. Jalen Suggs and Chet Holmgren work well together. They don’t hide it!
Some wonder if the best way to utilize Holmgren’s style of play is with a stronger traditional 5-man next to him, affording roster versatility to slide Chet up to the 5 when appropriate to attack mismatches.
At the moment, Mo Bamba holds a rim-protecting stretch-four role for Orlando in the starting lineup next to Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. There’s reason to believe Chet could handle a similar role, if he were to be drafted by Orlando. The return of defensive anchor Jonathan Isaac would unlock all sorts lineup combinations.
Chet Holmgren even has the Terrence Ross Fake-Handoff Backdoor Baseline Cut Play in his bag! Shown here setting up Jaden Ivey, Holmgren’s teammate on Team USA in the FIBA U-19 tournament.
The marquee matchup of the FIBA U-19 World Cup Final was between USA’s Chet Holmgren and France’s Victor Wembanyama. Two seven-foot hoopers playing with styles the game hasn’t quite seen before, a sneak-peek into the future of basketball. Holmgren held his own in the matchup, securing the win while getting Wembanyama in foul trouble.
This article will still apply next season, when the same critics come after Victor Wembanyama’s frame, which will seem a little crazy when you watch him play. At a certain point, talent, length, and height can outweigh strength in importance on a basketball court.
I haven’t seen a shot release as unblockable as Wembanyama’s since Kevin Durant entered the national scene at Texas. While Jabari Smith’s shot release may look closer to KD’s aesthetically, watching Wembanyama shoot brings back that familiar Texas Durant feeling of, “How is anyone supposed to contest that shot? He’s too damn tall!”
How quickly does Victor Wembanyama become a household name? You tell me.
Many concerns for Chet Holmgren’s game are the same worries traditional scouts have for any prospect with a relatively frail frame: ability to put on weight, injury risks, and post defense struggles at the next level. While fair, they should be viewed as the relatively small negatives to the off-the-chart positives Chet shows on the court.
On the ball, Chet can dribble, pass, and shoot; off the ball, Holmgren stays active as cutter, lob threat, and stretching the defense beyond the arc. Other than the ability to outmuscle opponents on the block, there not a whole lot that Chet can’t do.
If an evil scientist created the perfect pick-and-pop partner in a lab, his creation would be able to back up for three, beat everyone to a lob, playmake out of short-roll, and mismatch-hunt throughout the action. If that evil scientist added a drop of rim-protection and a hint of switchability to the mix, the creation would be the type of player we used to call a unicorn, a monstar who would play a lot like Chet Holmgren.
After every pick he sets, Holmgren becomes a threat to pop for three, catch the alley, or hit the mismatch with a counter. Rather than demanding post-touches, slowing down the pace on the block, Holmgren stays moving, relocating for catch-and-shoot threes and cutting to the rim for dunks.
When mismatches present themselves in the post, Holmgren can build upon his versatile shot profile of faceups, fadeaways, and counter-moves with his special shooting touch, rather than have to overpower his competition. Instead of throwing blows in the post, Chet fades with ease.
This Orlando Magic’s front office has a type, prioritizing draft prospects with long wingspans, with the 7’ mark appearing to be a not-so-arbitrary cutoff. In recent years, focus has shifted towards drafting two-way team-first basketball players who space the floor and attack closeouts with all-around ball-skills; prospects with length and skill who add positive impact to both ends.
Alongside Joe Dumars, John Hammond helped Detroit built the tough-nosed Pistons teams of the 2000s, where they correctly decided Rasheed Wallace, the three-point shooting rim-protector, was the missing piece to their defensive-minded starting lineup of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Ben Wallace. Yes, that’s the same John Hammond who went on to draft Giannis Antetokoumnpo.
Working with Masai Ujiri, Jeff Weltman helped build a perennial playoff team and eventual champion in Toronto, where 6’9”+ basketball players with length and developable ball-skills fill out just about every position on the roster. Today, Weltman is leading Orlando’s front office as President of Basketball Operations.
Even as prospects like Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jaden Ivey spark debate over the top pick in NBA draft circles, the number of signs pointing to Chet Holmgren - Orlando Magic mutual interest would make Charlie Day look sane.
While scouting is done over years of sample size, prospect evaluations fluctuate by the day. Jalen Duren, Nikola Jovic, Bennedict Mathurin, Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe are a few more intriguing names in this class. Banchero revealing his star scoring creator upside at Duke, along with the strong play of other potential lottery picks, could always change a team’s big board by draft day.
Orlando’s front office has built another reputation: they don’t leak rumors. ShamsWoj couldn’t even spoil the draft picks. Read everything. Believe nothing. Trust no one.
In spite of Paolo Banchero stealing the spotlight in their early-season Gonzaga-Duke matchup, Chet Holmgren found ways to impress. To open both halves, Chet recovers on a close-out to block Paolo at the rim and secure the stop by saving the ball from falling out of bounds.
Banchero never backed down, though, exploding for 20 points in the first half on the way to a Blue Devil victory. On top of the game, Paolo won his share of matchups, like in north-south situations such as this semi-transition possession where his overpowering strength with a head of steam became a problem for Chet to contain.
Holmgren swats everything in sight. Chet’s 5.3 blocks per-40 minutes is as high of a rate as just about anyone to play at the NCAA level since they started recording the stat. This is where we shout-out shot-blocking legends like Dr. J, Kareem, Wilt, and Russell, who did their damage before the Blocks and Steals record books opened.
Chet’s defensive impact might be underrated by a public perception overly focused on criticizing a 19 year old’s muscle mass. Whenever he’s not blocking one shot, he’s affecting another. Holmgren keeps his head up, always looking to push off turnovers.
Chet Holmgren’s per-40 box score numbers (PTS, REB, BLK) are up there with any college player to to ever pick up the rock, yet Holmgren scores in his own style. Chet represents the modern mobile big who spends most of his minutes launching from deep and closing off the rim to others while staying active on both ends of the floor.
Overall, Chet is scoring 70% TS%, while taking 47% of his shots at the rim and converting 81.4% of those rim-shots.
Top-3 Freshman in BPM for the 2021-22 NCAA Regular Season?
1. Chet Holmgren +15.1
2. Jabari Smith +11.5
3. AJ Griffin +8.6
The only NCAA player since 2012 with >= 70 TS% and >= 14 BPM other than Chet Holmgren? Zion Williamson.
Cerebro Sports ranks Chet as the 5th best performer in college ball this season according to RAM, their overall performance metric. Holmgren also ranks 7th in Big Man Strengths (REB/BLK), T-19th in Defensive Statistical Impact (STL/BLK/PF), and T-52nd in Pure Scoring Prowess (Volume/Efficiency), according to Cerebro Sports. Chet ranks higher in all these metrics than the possible top draft picks previously mentioned: Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., Jaden Ivey, and AJ Griffin.
FT% is generally an indicator of future shooting development, revealing a gym rat mentality, someone willing to put in the shooting reps it takes for consistent results. This visualization breaks down the free throw numbers for these five potential top picks in the 2022 NBA Draft:
FT% (efficiency) compared to FTA/FGA (frequency)
Holmgren hitting 75.3% of his free throws isn’t overly inspiring, but is probably closer to an average rate than a negative sign. Chet’s catch-and-shoot threat is legit, making 41.2% of his shots from deep with a whopping 71.4% of his 3PM being assisted.
Here’s a look at the three-point numbers for those same five 2022 NBA Draft prospects:
3P% (efficiency) compared to 3PA/FGA (frequency)
Chet Holmgren dunks the basketball… a lot. Sure, he’s tall. But why doesn’t every seven-footer have as many dunks as Chet? Because other seven-footers don’t get to the rim as easy and often as Chet does.
Holmgren’s 74% 2P% is the highest in the draft class, throwing down 51 total dunks on the season compared to a combined 56 dunks between Banchero, Griffin, and Smith.
Whether he’s attacking closeouts, cutting from the corner, catching lobs in pick-and-roll, or staying ready in the dunker spot: Chet Holmgren is a walking, talking threat to throw down the rock.
A primary goal of modern sports science involves prolonging players careers. Biometric research seems to be on the way next, allowing players to monitor their own body health metrics while opening the door to a key negotiation in the near future for the player’s association in terms of protecting player/employee rights.
A player’s body weight can be advantageous and disadvantageous at the same time, depending on the situation. What if “being too skinny” brings more pros than cons in today’s game? How many times is a player expected to “bang on the block” per game compared to the number of times they’re asked to rotate on defense to closeout or protect the rim, switch the position they’re defending, or change coverages on the fly?
Prospects have years to develop into their final form, especially once they get caught up in that modern NBA regimen of dieting, workouts, and conditioning. Maybe we should all worry less about teenagers figuring out how to fill out their frames over years of intense weight training and spend a little more time enjoying where the game of basketball has taken us: Aliens taking baseline fadeaways like Melo and Kobe.
Let’s all be more like Chet Holmgren’s dad, Dave. Just sit back and watch Chet eat.
Data Sources: barttorvik.com, hoop-math.com, synergy sports, college bball reference
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