Paolo Banchero, The Foul Bandit
The Orlando Magic Rookie is stealing fouls at an all-time great rate.
He racks up calls on your favorite player.
He steals free points from the nail every night.
He draws more whistles than a daydreaming referee.
He is…
Paolo Banchero, The Foul Bandit
Paolo’s foul magnet gravitational pull has been powerful since day one.
Banchero utilizes his special combination of skill and size to create endless easy scoring opportunities for himself and teammates. A wrecking ball in transition with post footwork for days, Banchero forces refs to make calls simply by looking to attack.
Five games into his rookie year, Paolo was drawing fouls at a rate not seen by a Magic rookie since Shaq, visualized below:
Putting Paolo’s whistle-drawing in perspective:
Banchero’s current rate of 8.3 free throw attempts per game is tied with Rick Barry for 14th all-time among NBA rookies. Wilt holds the rookie record with 13.8 FTA/gm .
Unlike former supermen picked first overall in Orlando’s past, Paolo makes defenses pay at the charity stripe, making 77% of his foul shots.
His 6.4 FTM/gm rate currently ranks T-12th with Paul Arizin all-time among NBA rookies, via Statmuse. Oscar holds the rookie record with 10.6 FTM/gm.
In this 2022 NBA Season, Rookie Paolo’s 6.4 FTM/gm ranks 12th, with Kevin Durant leading the league with 8.1 FTM/gm; Banchero’s 8.3 FTM/gm ranks 11th, with Giannis Antetokoumnpo ranking 1st with 12.3 FTA/gm.
Even missing his team’s last two games, Paolo Banchero ranks Top 10 in total free throws in 2022.
This season, Paolo stands 10th in Total FTM (70), with Kevin Durant leading the league at 101 FTM; while, Banchero ranks 8th in Total FTA (91), with Luka Doncic sitting atop the league at 121 FTA, as of 11/11/22.
Paolo’s already a premier foul-drawing talent, with Banchero’s 47% FTr ranking 27th in the NBA and T-16th among players with at least two hundred minutes played, via basketball reference.
As a team, the Orlando Magic lead the league in Free Throw Rate at 24.7 free throws per one hundred field goal attempts, via Cleaning the Glass.
Orlando runs a lot of offense through Banchero, but he tends to only stop the ball when looking to score or attack a mismatch. Paolo ranks in the 95th percentile of all forwards in USG%, yet also sits in the 88th percentile in AST%.
Paolo stepped into the league as a walking mismatch, a player who somehow has the speed to fly by smaller guards and the strength to overpower larger bigs.
Banchero uses his bulky frame to back down the burliest of big defenders while taking advantage of his body control, quick first step burst, and tight handle to accelerate past supposedly “quicker” guard defenders.
Paolo draws fouls effortlessly, shrugging off defenders with the bump and run like Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson running over and around everyone in sight.
The 6’10” scoring creator can attack from the perimeter or the post, drawing mismatches on switches in P&R as ball-handler, all while keeping an eye out on drives for potential dimes to play-finishers.
Banchero uses his mix of burst and bounce to attack the mismatch, pinball around the paint, and draw contact on euro-step drives to the rim like he’s Derrick Henry exploding through the gap.
Bully Ball Banchero carries a strong 250lb base with ball control that allows him to move most defenders wherever he wants, from faceup ISOs to backdown postups, with the counters, footwork, and touch to drill a variety of tough midrange shots.
Once defenses respect Paolo’s pull-up jumper as a threat, the hesi pump-fake should become even more effective for quick trips to the line.
It’s unreal how dynamic Paolo Banchero already is on the hardwood. Banchero takes off on fast breaks, creating easy opportunities to score and draw fouls. With the penalized take foul now in play, Paolo has even more freedom to break loose.
Suggs and Banchero are already a transition force to be reckoned with off turnovers. Due to Orlando’s strong defensive rotations, opportunities to attack should overflow.
Zooming in on positive impact lineup combos involving Paolo, look no further than Franz. Orlando has a +2.89 Net Rating with Paolo and Franz on the floor. (297 MIN)
In 245 MIN with Paolo Franz, and Wendell Carter Jr. on the floor, Orlando holds a positive +2.9 Net Rating.
In 154 with Paolo, Franz, and Bol Bol on the floor, Orlando posts a staggering +15.44 Net Rating!
Historical Paolo Daily Stats through Banchero’s NBA Career:
Game 1
Paolo Scored The Most Points in NBA Rookie Debut (27) since Allen Iverson in 1996!
Since 1969, only three No. 1 overall picks have dropped 25+ PTS, 5+ REB, and 5+ AST in their NBA debut: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, LeBron James, and Paolo Banchero
Game 2
1st #1 pick to score 20+ Points in first two career games since LeBron in 2003
Game 3
1st teenager to score 20+ Points in first 3 career games in NBA history.
*Nominee for NBA Player of the Week in first week of career
Game 4
Paolo is the first NBA Rookie to score 20 or more points in each of his first four games in 28 YEARS!
7th Rookie in *NBA history to score 20+ Points in first four games of their career! WILT CHAMBERLAIN
OSCAR ROBERTSON
ELVIN HAYES
GRANT HILL
JOHN DREW
DOMINIQUE WILKINS
*PAOLO BANCHERO*
Game 5
Paolo Banchero’s free throw volume of 9 FTA/gm would rank *T-9th All-Time among NBA Rookies, tying: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, Shaquille O’Neal, Elvin Hayes, Terry Dischinger, Frank Selvy, and Blake Griffin!
(At this point, Paolo was also 7th all-time in FTM/gm by a rookie trailing Oscar, Wilt, MJ, Elgin Baylor, David Robinson and Joe Fulks, via @OrlMagicMoments)
Career-High 29 PTS for Banchero
Game 6
Paolo Banchero records SIX 20pt games to start his NBA career, tying Grant Hill, Dominique Wilkins, and Oscar Robertson for the third-most of any player.
Game 10
Paolo records two Career-Highs with 33 PTS & 16 REB!
Paolo Banchero joins LeBron James as the only teenagers in the history of the NBA to record a game with 30+ PTS & 15+ REB. Paolo also becomes the first Magic Rookie since Shaq to record a game with 30+ PTS & 10+REB.
Game 11
Paolo joins Zion, Luka, Booker, and LeBron as the 5th Teenager in NBA History to record consecutive 30+pt games, via @OrlandoMagic.
Dom Samangy (@DSamangy) shares this data visualization, showing how Paolo Banchero could become the youngest Rookie All-Star in NBA History and the third-youngest player ever to make the All-Star Game behind Kobe (19.5) and LeBron (20.2) in their second seasons:
A rookie hasn’t made the All-Star game since Blake Griffin in 2011; yet, Paolo’s played so strong out of the gates, he’s already seeing big game buzz.
Paolo Banchero’s Eastern Conference Ranks, via NBA Stats:
11th in PPG (23.5)
17th in REB (8.3)
37th in APG (3.6)
T-27th in BPG (0.9)
8th in FTM/FTA (6.4/8.3)
T-13th in USG% (29.4%)
Banchero’s been so good, so quickly, his immediate impact is undeniable. Has he reached such a high performance level that he’d already be considered a snub if he was left off the team? Can Magic fans count on media voters to pay attention?
Paolo’s style of play looks so unprecedented, its forced fans to make uncomfortably lofty comparisons. LeBron is the penultimate example of a do-it-all scoring creator forward; while Paolo’s an inch taller, it’s hard to directly compare his feel to one of the greatest to ever play, but the stylistic similarities are there.
Some like to say Paolo plays like if Clippers Blake Griffin had the pull-up jumper and on-ball scoring creation chops of Pistons Blake Griffin.
Maybe the closest comp is a fusion dance between two of the greatest Denver Nuggets to ever play: Jokic and Melo?
Melo: 6’7” 240 lbs
LeBron: 6’9” 250 lbs
Paolo: 6’10” 250 lbs
Jokic: 6’11” 280 lbs
The Melo comparisons lie in the middy postup footwork, the tough-shot making, the bag. The most fair aspects of the LeBron-Paolo comparison are that both are athletic marvels who can seemlessly shift offensive roles between primary creator and battery ram play-finisher while serving as a nearly unstopabble force of nature in transition.
Some other similar attributes between Paolo, LeBron, and Jokic could be seen in the play-deciphering team-first mentality and elbow backdown playmaking abilities of players that big. Not that Banchero is neccessarily already as skilled of a passer as two of the best to ever do it, but that he’s been put in position to consistently make similar passes, to generate good offense for his team.
What makes these superstars unguardable is the skill and speed for someone that size.
At what point do we all stop calling Paolo Banchero the “surprise number one pick” and start referring to Paolo Banchero as a generational prospect hiding in plain sight?
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Data Sources: PBP Stats, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, StatMuse