The Rise and Fire of Markelle Middy
Markelle Fultz, the Orlando Magic's table-setting pace-pushing midrange assassin
From below the arc to above the baseline, everything the light touches is our kingdom.
A post-apocalyptic forgotten land left behind as far as the eye can see.
Anyone can visit; only the chosen ones may return.
The midrange works like the rooftop vip lounge overlooking the pool.
No pass? No buckets.
Stars and specialists tend to be the only players allowed to take jumpers between three and twenty two feet. The average player often feels pressure from every direction to take safer shots, more efficient looks like attacking the basket for fouls and shots at the rim or knocking down open jumpers from downtown.
In basketball, though, a good shot might just be any shot a player has confidence in making.
This is normally earned confidence through endless reps, a shot the player has made thousands of times in empty gyms, with a trainer, the park, games and practice settings. Other times, its natural talent, basketball savants who pick things up easy.
The average player pulling up from 30ft is a bad shot.
Damian Lillard pulling up from 30ft is the first thing on the scouting report.
Damian Lillard in 2019, via Player Tribune:
“When people want to talk to me about the buzzer-beater against OKC,
or the one against Houston — like, ‘That’s a bad shot.’
You think I was improvising?
You think I was panicking?
You think I didn’t know exactly what I was doing?”
Irrational confidence can sometimes be as effective as rational confidence, at least in terms of scaring, stretching, threatening defenses.
Volume, efficiency, shot difficulty define the premier shooters in the league.
Shooting gravity exists when the defense has to worry about Player A without the ball as much as they do Player B with the ball, staying constantly aware of Player A’s whereabouts on the court simply because Player A can knock down a 3pt jump shot.
A long-range shooter who shows no fear to launch from deep, who brings high volume on modest efficiency and can get hot any night, can be as volatile a scoring threat to defenses as a slightly more efficient shooter who’s slightly more hesitant to let it fly.
Ultimate irrational confidence flamethrowers like J.R. Smith, Terrence Ross, and Nick Young embody the heat check. While their shooting confidence is earned through skill, talent, and hard work, they fill NBA-level roles as icy-hot rotation players with short memories who stay ready to shoot no matter what happened the play before, drifting between volcano-erupting hot and glacier-freezing cold on any given night.
Defenders react with instincts; if a defense respect a player from deep, thinking that player is unafraid to shoot, the defense is forced to keep one eye open, distracting themselves from other responsibilities.
Players can understand the numbers as well as anyone and process information as fast as possible in the moment to react promptly, but at the end of the day, players play.
Shane Battier discussed an advantage he found using analytics to help him guard Kobe Bryant, finding the best case scenario for defending him, providing a concrete goal for every defensive possession. Battier had the length, height, and cerebral understanding of the game to implement every tool at his disposal:
“Sports are about gaining advantage… (Data Analytics) is just another way, like honing your jump shot, or honing your jump hook, or getting faster and stronger to gain a competitive advantage on the basketball court, this time using numbers and data…
I knew as a defender trying to stop him, Kobe’s worst-case scenario and my best case scenario was to make him shoot a pull-up jumper going to his left hand.
The average possession of the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008 generated 0.98 PPP… (points per possession)
Kobe Bryant only shot the left-(side) pull-up jumper at a 44% clip; so, every time that he went left for the pull-up jumper, he was generating 0.88 PPP. Well, that’s a tenth of a point less than the average Lakers possession…
I’m actually making him detrimental to his team. The way you have to look at it is all these tenths of points, add up.”
The most aware defenders understand where their opponents are strongest and weakest on the floor in nearly every playtype situation, like LeBron or Rondo calling out the other team’s plays and picking off a pass as if they called the play themselves.
All buckets are appreciated. If a shot is in one’s game, or developed along the way, tough shot-makers are valued on the biggest stages at the highest level.
Gilbert Arenas shared how analytics helped him become more comfortable shooting from way deep beyond the arc, via the Knuckleheads Podcast of Player Tribune:
“What gave you the confidence (to pull up from deep?)”
- Darius Miles
“My percentage was higher 3ft behind the 3pt line.Why?
Realized the defense wasn’t there; they’re waiting for you at the 3pt line. Here, I’m not guarded, so it’s a free shot; once I got closer to the 3pt line, you pick up.
What I started doing. I was realizing, I just started training my shot from back here, knowing no one was gonna pick up there.
So when I’m in that range, you’re not there, I’m letting it fly.”
- Gilbert Arenas, via Knuckleheads Podcast
The value of the corner three, free throws, and shots at the rim create an environment where the average player fighting for playing time is incentivized to take good shots, because even on a miss, at least it was a good look.
Any shot can become a good shot if the shooter is truly confident they can make it.
When a player finds an area of the floor where they can score effectively, that area can become a good shot for that player.
If a player’s scoring efficiency (PPP) in a certain shot is as good or better than the league average efficiency for that shot, or even the team’s average possession, it’s probably a good shot and perfectly fine result of a possession for that team.
Maybe that player is forcing what would be a bad shot for others, but if that player can make that bad shot efficiently and consistently, it’s no longer a bad shot for that player.
“I pray for Markelle 'cause they fucked up his shot
Just want you to know that you got it —
Though I never met you, I know that you special
And that the Lord blessed you, don't doubt it —”
- via J. Cole’s verse in “a lot” by 21 Savage
Markelle Fultz thrives in the midrange.
He lives there rent-free thanks to the space he takes up in the minds of the opponent.
He refers to the elbows as his Kill Spots, like Robocop scanning the threat to find his best form of response.
Many basketball fans gave up on Markelle, agreeing with national media pundits who wrote him off like “Phili drafted a bust who lost his ability to shoot threes".
After fighting back from a rare shoulder injury more common in baseball pitchers (TOS), however, Fultz is gradually dropping flashes of his former self, the funky 6’6” point guard prospect once considered so dynamic he was deemed worthy of the number one overall pick with near-consensus from draft critics.
Fultz’ primary goal as an attacking playmaker any possession is to make the best decision for his team, whether that be creating a good shot for himself or teammates. If he can score, he will, if the defenses forces a reaction, maybe a better shot exists.
If Fultz’ first goal is driving and deciding to score, draw contact for fouls, or kick out to setup good shots for teammates, his next goal is getting to his “kill spot” around the elbows, which ends up extending to everywhere below the arc.
Markelle the Mandalorian follows a life-long creed: the life of a midrange assassin.
The midrange never left Fultz’ shooting range, where he brings lively fluidity to every move he makes, driving and spinning like Shaun Livingston, making passes with funky flare like Nick Van Exel, and pulling up like Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway.
In an homage to Hardaway, the greatest point guard in Orlando Magic history, Markelle Middy breaks out the Penny Half-Spin Stepback move from just about anywhere on the court, even using it as a counter on drives as close as three feet.
Fultz does the majority of his damage from below the arc and becomes even deadlier the closer he gets to the rim; from the elbows in, he’s unconscious.
Scoring 0.99 points per possession on short jump shots between the rim and seventeen feet, Fultz is tied with Joel Embiid for 85th in scoring efficiency in that area.
Add a minimum filter of 50+ Short Jump Shots, and Fultz and Embiid rank T-38th, visualized below:
Fultz makes 57% of his layups, scoring 1.14 PPP for an above average rate, via Synergy.
Scoring 1.26 points per possession on runners rates Markelle in the 97th percentile when Fulz flips up a FLOATA.
This season, Fultz scores 0.92 PPP on 198 Dribble Jumpers and 1.9 PPP on 51 Unguarded C&S jump shots this season, via Synergy.
In the last few games of 2023, Fultz has even drilled a few three-pointers off the dribble with a rhythm that looks more and more like his middy pull-up.
Markelle Middy can only truly evolve on the ball; catch-and-shoot midrangers haven’t really been a thing ever since teams started spacing the floor from outside the three-point line.
Markelle Middy Magic Moment Tracker
Fultz’ First Middy Pull-Up in the blue and white pinstripes?
The Early Days: 2019-20
The Bubble (2020)
2020 to Today
Fultz plays at his own pace, feasting in pick-and-roll, breaking out herky-jerky handles and shoulder-fakes to find the crease to attack, and gradually maneuvering to anywhere he wants to in the halfcourt.
2-screen pick-and-roll sets like Spain, Double-Drag, Chicago use multiple screeners to create a variety of threats and misdirections within one play, confusing defenses even further.
Markelle combines his mastery of the midrange with high feel running pick-and-rolls to get to any spot below the arc for any shot he wants.
Fultz can run off Handoffs, but doesn’t yet have the pull-up threat to scare defenses on the ball from deep, dropping to 0.786 PPP on only 22 possessions:
Markelle Middy locates his kill spots in any playtype, whether he clears out for the ISO or runs Halfcourt P&R sets like Double-Drag, Horns and Spain, where Fultz can break out the reliable runner to defeat drop coverage.
With or without a screen, Fultz is effective.
In 244 possessions with Markelle Fultz as P&R Ball-Handler, The Magic scores a solid 0.897 PPP. In 21 possessions ignoring the screen, Fultz goes away from the pick to score 1.095 PPP.
In 48 ISO possessions, Fultz averages 1.02 PPP, rating in the 72nd percentile, while rating similarly high on effort plays like off-ball cuts and putbacks, via Synergy.
On dribble jumpers, Fultz is more effective when driving to his right.
In 27 possessions Driving Right, Markelle scores 1.148 PPP on dribble jumpers.
In 32 possessions Driving Left, Markelle scores 0.75 PPP on dribble jumpers.
When attacking the basket, however, Fultz is more effective when driving left.
In 27 possessions Driving Right, Markelle scores 0.926 PPP attacking the basket.
In 18 possessions Driving Left, Markelle scores 1.22 PPP attacking the basket.
2022-23: Markelle Middy Magic Moments
The Magic lost twenty of their first twenty five games this season; then, all of a sudden, went on a six-game winning streak.
What changed?
Markelle was back in his groove at starting point, allowing the rotation to go back to more natural-fitting roles for all.
In the first two games of the Magic’s winning streak, Fultz attempted and missed potential game-winning elbow pull-up jumpers.
In the fifth game of the streak, Fultz closed out the Celtics with back-to-back elbow middies in Boston.
Fultz stays attacking, rising and firing until he sees results.
In December of this season, Markelle Middy shows he can fill out the box score when given the keys to the offense, point guard responsibilities and opportunity to produce:
12/19/22 @ ATL
24 PTS 9 AST 6 REB 1 STL 11/19 FG 2/3 3P
LINK: https://twitter.com/beyondtheRK/status/1605035521826340865?s=2
Fultz controls the pace as well any player in the league, reeling Orlando’s offense back in when things get out of control, serving as a traditional point who can also take over when the team needs a bucket.
Markelle took down the reigning champs using the Warriors’ own move against them: run up the score in the third quarter and never look back
Fultz alone was responsible for forcing four turnovers, ending the opponent’s possession to start one of his own, scoring 8 points himself and creating another 9 points through three-point assists.
Taking over against a real contender out West, Fultz kept The Magic in a close game against the Suns in Phoenix, racking up 25 points, 9 assists, and 2 steals.
Markelle dropped another all-around performance, hounding Devin Booker and Chris Paul with active hands to pick off a pass and poke the dribble away for 2 steals, while doing his best DeMar DeRozan impression, drilling middy pull-up after middy pull-up.
Easily the best-looking single 3pt jump shot of Markelle’s Magic career, Fultz seemed to finally extend his money midrange rise and fire form to beyond the arc.
In one exciting third quarter run, Markelle set up two three-point assists, chased down two players for blocks in less than sixty seconds, grabbed a loose ball steal for a breakaway windmill slam, and stamped the sequence with his signature midrange pull-up.
Fultz spins his defender through multiple screens off the quick give-and-go handoff into Double Drag, confusing the defender with extra contact and misdirection.
2021-22 Flashback: Fultz just “floating out there”
Markelle Middy takes over the game against Darius Garland in Cleveland. Fultz takes advantage of his strength and size advantage to abuse the point guard mismatch.
4/5/22 @ CLE
10 third-quarter points
16 PTS on 66% FG% through three
LINK:
https://twitter.com/beyondtheRK/status/1511506614632787974?s=20
Orlando will continue to compete off elite defense, multiple scoring threats, and team-first shot creation looking for the open man. In addition to internal development, all one can ask from the offense is creating good looks for capable shooters around main scoring options.
Behind Franz and Paolo, Fultz gives Orlando a viable third scoring option, and maybe the team’s most consistent shot-creator on a per-possession basis. When the team’s individual scorers have an off night, the offense relies on Markelle’s playmaking first and foremost.
To the offense, Fultz makes everything go while bringing a needed burst to the pace; Markelle serves as both the straw that stirs the drink and the extra espresso shot in your morning iced coffee.
Between Markelle Fultz (12), Franz Wagner (10.8), and Paolo Banchero (10), the Magic attack the rack as frequently as any team in the league. The Orlando Magic are one of four teams with three players driving to the rack at least ten times per game, joining the Clippers, Pelicans, and Celtics.
Fultz rates highly at creating good 3PT looks due to his drive and kick vision and feel. Markelle ranks 21st in 3PT AST per 100 possessions and 31st in Total 3PT Asssist. (via PBP Stats)
2022-23 NBA Leaders in Drives *and* 3PT Assists:
Moments like these can only hype up Magic fans. Sit down in your seats, look up to the hardwood, and see signature plays made by all three core scorers.
Markelle Middy. Franz FLOATA. Pull-Up Paolo. Paolo POWER Slam!
Magic Basketball is in good hands.
Starting 5-16 without Fultz, Markelle returned to the lineup and hasn’t missed a game since.
Over the next 58 games, the Magic had a .500 record (29-29), the 7th-best Defense, and the 6th-best FT Rate on Offense before losing their final three games once the team was finally ruled out of the playoffs in the final week of the season.
Couldn’t ask for much more competitive effort and resilience from a team.
A table-setting pace-pushing midrange assassin, The Magic march to Markelle’s beat.
The OFFICIAL Markelle Middy Mixtape
Data as of 4/15/23 via PBP Stats, Cleaning The Glass, Cerebro Stats, Basketball Reference, NBA Stats
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