The Wagner Carter Connection
Hand Tracking all 91 Assists between Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. during the 2021-22 Orlando Magic Season.
Built as fragilely as a jenga tower or beaver dam, a basketball team’s pick-and-roll defense exists to disrupt the flow; to stop the flooding. Even with all the mud, sweat, and tears put into it, a base is only as strong as its weakest link. Defensive rotations can appear totally in sync; yet, with just one mistep, the whole dam breaks loose.
The moment the initiator breaks down the first wall, trapping the point-of-attack defender behind the action, a 2-on-1 opportunity presents itself to the offense, leaving the defense in a lose-lose situation. Against drop coverage, the roll-man’s defender usually has two options; selling out in either direction. They can backpeddle to break up a lob at the rim or leap forward to contest the ball-handler who just opened up the floodgates, risking a misread that can lead to a foul, goaltend, or open look.
Even as the touch and timing for floaters and lobs takes incredible feel for the game, on-ball scoring creators who possess both skills can torture traditional defenses over and over. “A mastered floater is drop coverage’s kryptonite.”
The simultaneous threat of the floater and lob (or “flob”, via @PDWeb) forces defenses to pick their poison, effectively freezing drop defenders into an unmakeable decision.
Franz Wagner scores in hyper-aware yet unorthodox ways, often appearing to be staring off into the distance as he drives into the paint one direction before dropping a look-off spin-move back towards the rim for an easy lay-in.
Wendell Carter Jr. does all the little things one can ask from a traditional big man, with a modernized skill-set to boot. Wendell knows where to be, when to be there, and why he should be there; he always seems aware of what to do and how to do it.
Carter thrives finishing plays by fulfilling scoring opportunities created by others. Carter stretches the floor vertically as a rim-roller and horizontally as a floor-spacing catch-and-shoot threat who will attack closeouts, mismatches, and the rack.
Franz and Wendell create advantages for one other constantly, helping each other progress through every individual decision that goes into a play. The Wagner-Carter Connection thrives in the two-man game, with over half of their assists to one other occuring in the P&R playtype. When asked about Franz’s and Wendell’s pick-and-roll chemistry back in December, @Polarfall noted Wagner’s focus, feel, and misdirection control in a deep dive on Franz Wagner’s game:
“It's also related with (Franz’s) eye and neck angle. He rarely watches Wendell Carter Jr. or the potential pass route. He has automatic/default fake skill in his eye gaze angle.
Can make advantage because defender feel strange. Defenders can't react quickly due to his fixed eye neck angle, and he's getting better as he gains experience.” - @Polarfall
In their first season playing together, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. combined for 91 assists to one another, making up 23% of their 402 total assists.
The only pair of Orlando Magic players with more assists to each other last year was Franz and Cole Anthony, (133) while the next closest pairing was Cole and Wendell. (89) Rounding out the top-five Orlando Magic Assist Combos, via PBP Stats: Cole and Mo Bamba (74), Jalen Suggs and Wendell (65), Franz and Suggs. (54)
How do Wendell and Franz set each other up to succeed? Looking for each other in free-for-all loose ball moments, maintaining awareness of the other’s location during pre-planned two-man actions, and helping each other create subtle advantages throughout possessions with head-fakes, shoulder blows, and crab dribbles.
This hand tracked assist combo data visualization below breaks down all 91 assists made between Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. during the 2021-22 NBA Season:
More often than any other assist type, the Wagner-Carter connection arrived in an alley-oop. Taking advantage of DHO and P&R sets, Franz picked apart defenses with jays, drives, and dimes. Wendell set clean screens, popped for jumpers, and rolled for lobs. Both remained in sync for backdoor cuts, dumpoffs, kickouts, and swing passes.
As soon as Wagner seals his man behind him on a drive, defenses are stuck in no man’s land. Franz zaps the remaining drop defender with a flob freeze ray, stopping the opponent in their tracks like Bug Bunny blowing a kiss in Multiversus, before dealing the finishing blow with the alley-oop or tear drop floater.
Franz tossed up seventeen lobs to Wendell throughout the season, the most common type of assist between the duo. (18.7%)
Defenses don’t only have to beat Carter to the rim to break up a lob, they have to contest Wagner’s runner, attempting to keep both out of the paint.
Franz’s floater game is already a viable weapon worthy of respect from defenses, with Wagner ranking 60th in efficiency (0.874 Runner PPP) among players with 50+ attempts last season, via Synergy Sports.
No flob? No floblem. When suddenly facing a second defender in switch, trap, ice, and drop situations after initiating a P&R, Wagner would improvise.
17.6% of the assists between Franz and Wendell involve Franz slicing up defenses in pick-and-roll with a wraparound or bounce pass without the option of a floater or lob. In sixteen pick-and-rolls, Chef Wagner carved up the defense by slinging a wraparound pass around them or dicing a bounce pass right through them.
Stretching the floor from deep as defenses grow to respect his pull-up jumper, Franz possesses the vision, feel, and ball-skills to create shots for everyone by attacking himself or threading the needle with live-dribble lead-passes to off-ball movers.
Here, Carter pops for three, sees an opening in the defense, and attack the gap, opening up a lead-pass opportunity for Wagner. The play is broken up from good defense, a great recovery block by Dorian Finney-Smith, yet the Wagner-Carter telepathic connection jumps off the screen.
In this next clip, Orlando runs Horns through Suggs with Wagner popping into a second P&R with Carter, forcing the slow-footed Markkanen through multiple screens in the action. Franz pulls off a similar right to left crossover into the live-dribble bounce pass as the prior clip, this time leading Wendell through the open gap straight to a rack-attack.
Why do Wendell handoffs only account for a 15.4% share of assists between Wagner and Carter; just 14 in total? Because Wendell only sees an assist recorded in the box score when he touches the ball before Franz scores, such as on a quick give-and-go handoff into a re-screened pick-and-roll one might see to begin a possession.
In handoffs against drop and late switch defenders, Wendell set shoulder-bouldering screens to free Franz into clean pull-up jumpers, directly assisting on six occasions.
Franz turned the corner off handoffs for eight assists from Wendell, driving to the rack for a floater or finish.
How many times this seasons did Franz start and finish a P&R himself, using a screen from Carter to maneuver to the rim while trapping his defender behind him on the way to a bucket?
On top of the strength of his screens, Wendell sets picks with precision. Carter shows excellent timing with re-screening technique, footwork, and awareness. Like a gap-opening offensive line, Wendell’s impact blocking makes life easier for the whole team. Carter did rack up the seventeenth-most screen assists in the league, after all. (231)
Staying mindful of the other’s position on the floor, Carter and Wagner made backdoor cuts, kickouts, and dumpoff passes look routine. Making good decisions becomes easier when your teammates are invested in helping you execute.
29.7% off the assists between Franz and Wendell involved quick dumpoff passes to each other (27); almost entirely made up by backdoor cuts. 18.6% of their assists involved making a good play with an extra pass on kickouts and swing passes. (17)
Below is a data visualization of Wagner’s shot and assist locations in relation to Wendell’s status on the court, off the court, and as the only big on the floor, thanks to @MarkC_NBA’s neat app, Two-Man Game.
Franz’s shooting efficency jumps from 47.3% eFG% with Wendell OFF the court to 54% eFG% with Wendell ON the court, and all the way up to 58.6% eFG% with Wendell as the only big!
When Carter’s on the floor, 40.5% of Franz’s Assists go to Wendell; with Carter off the floor, only 31.6% of Franz’s assists go to other bigs.
Next, @MarkC_NBA visualizes Wendell’s increase in volume of threes and drives after the move to Orlando, spiking up with the arrival of Head Coach Jamahl Mosley. The willingness to launch catch-and-shoot jumpers can be nearly as threatening to defenses as more efficient shooters on lower volume; floor-spacers only need to take up an extra milisecond in their opponent’s mind to distract from the action at hand.
While Franz and Wendell only officially assisted each other ninety one times, they positively impacted the other’s execution of nearly every possession shared on the floor. These two help one another progress through the decision-making process involved in each play, even when assists don’t show up in the stat sheet.
Last season, Orlando ran an onslaught of drive-and-kick sets through handoffs and P&R. Franz himself handled over 300 P&Rs, with the team scoring 0.81 PPP; for comparison, Cole Anthony ran 457 P&Rs as ball-handler for 0.85 PPP. Wendell Carter executed the role of P&R Roll-Man 208 times for 1.06 PPP, while Mo Bamba filled the same role at 0.94 PPP on 101 possessions, via NBA Stats.
Orlando felt the endless drive-and-kick experience up close in Jamahl Mosley’s first season as head coach. Fret not, Magic fans, that unusual feeling isn’t motion sickness; that’s a taste of modern basketball. Inverted pick-and-pops, handoffs into double-drags, horns into side pick-and-rolls, Chicago into Spain sets; it’s all on the table.
As this summer’s number one overall pick, Paolo Banchero, joins the roster, Orlando adds yet another team-first decision-maker to the mix. With Paolo’s tough shot-making upside and potentially clean fit in the Magic’s rotation as an on-ball scoring creator and short-rolling playmaker, Banchero looks to be able to handle either end of a P&R and seemingly any role in the playbook.
For a team that hasn’t had a Top-20 offense since the days of Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard, Magic basketball suddenly resembles a ball-movement machine. On the other side of the floor, Orlando’s defense ranked 6th after the all-star break, peaking at 2nd for a 16-game stretch, anchored by Wendell Carter’s consistently improving play.
This Magic roster runs deep, full of team-first players hungry to win and prove themselves around the league. Revealing on-court chemistry that can’t be taught, Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner have earned an opportunity to anchor the frontcourt. With Paolo Banchero entering the fold, the return of do-it-all defender Jonathan Isaac lurking over the season, and promising depth of two-way competitors at nearly every position, Orlando’s lineup versatility is the strongest its been in years.
Sippin' from your cup 'til it runneth over.
Wagna Carta — Holy Grail.
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