Which 20-56 NBA team has a Top-2 Defense since the All-Star Break?
Your 2021-22 Orlando Magic Season Update
The team with the worst record in the NBA has the 2nd-best defense since All-Star Weekend.
That’s no typo. Over the last 16 games, the Orlando Magic (20-56) rank 2nd in defense with a 109.2 defensive rating. During this stretch, the Magic won five of their first eight games, ranking 1st in defense through their first fifteen and only slipping to 2nd after giving away the last game to Cleveland as Memphis blew the bridges off Golden State to take over the top spot.
How is a team barreling towards the bottom of the standings trending in the opposite direction on the defensive side of the ball?
Building good habits all season. Cerebral, lengthy players filling nearly every position. Competitive effort every possession; taking no plays off. The front office has targeted a type: smart, skilled, tall, long basketball players who play hard for each other.
Jamahl Mosley deserves a ton of credit. An ever-changing roster filled with young players and fringe G-league talent hustles on both ends and competes their asses off until the final buzzer every single night. The culture changed over night because of the standards set by Coach Mosley. After playing against Orlando, most opposing coaches praise the team’s never-give-up spirit. Ring The Bell!
Magic fans would like to add a few more names to credit for Orlando looking like a .500 ball club since the All-Star break, vaguely, from afar, if you squint a little: Wendell Carter Jr. gradually leveling up his already consistent game, Franz Wagner the trusty swish army knife who’s always available, Cole Anthony’s energetic scoring creation, Mo Bamba’s blocks and treys, Chuma Okeke’s defensive versatility, R.J. Hampton speeding past second units, and Markelle Fultz looking like Markelle Fultz after missing over a calendar year of professional basketball.
Fultz has appeared in just 12 games this season and 8 games last season. He’s still on a minutes restriction, not yet surpassing 20 minutes played in any one game, and he hasn’t started once, coming off the bench in sporadic 4-minute spurts.
And yet…
This team simply plays with a different level of energy with Markelle Fultz on the floor. Fultz hoops for the fun of it, sparking a jolt of joy with anyone lined up alongside him. Markelle The Magician is back!
Fultz’ box score rates are similar to where he left, albeit, in less playing time and volume, and against second units. In 18 MPG, Markelle is averaging the highest Per-36 numbers of his career: 19 PTS — 9 AST/4 TO — 5 REB — 2 STL. Fultz is scoring 51% TS% overall and dishing out 41% AST% with a 27% USG% rate.
In 98 P&R possessions this season, Fultz is creating 0.93 PPP for his team. Taking the rock to the rack or pulling up for a middy with the help of a screen is where Markelle does the majority of his damage, scoring 0.94 PPP on 48 possessions as P&R ball-handler, which rates in the 74th percentile. When Markelle dribbles off a pick in single coverage, occuring 40 times this season, he’s scoring a clean 1.0 PPP.
Markelle Fultz sets the tone, the pace, and his teammates up for their best chance to succeed. In 36 short minutes on the court together, Franz-Wendell-Fultz share a +3.66 Net Rating. No matter which lineup he’s apart of, Fultz makes his teammates better. Markelle is the straw that stirs the drink in the nine-dollar refillable Orlando Magic Legend Souvenir Cup.
During this sixteen-game post-All-Star-break stretch, Orlando ranks highly in two of the Defensive Four Factors and average in two others: 4th in defensive eFG% (52%), 2nd in DREB% (22%), 19th in TOV% (13%), and 19th in FT Rate (21). While the fit appeared too wonky to work, the frontcourt pairing of Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. seems to be paying dividends late in the season.
More and more teams are reverting back to playing two bigs together at a time. The difference in today’s game is the versatility these new player types bring. Instead of pairing a rebounding specialist with a post-up brute, teams are finding value in playing two long mobile bigs who can both serve as defensive anchors.
When building the ideal modern defense, teams must be prepared for endless closeout-attacks. Franchises may now need two or more players who can protect the rim and switch out onto speedier wings, rather than the more traditional route of building a defensive identity around everyone guiding their man into one single elite rim-protector, such as the Dwight Howard Magic or Rudy Gobert Jazz teams.
Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba actually complement each other in a multitude of ways, as both specialize in different skills on each side of the floor. Bamba brings more help-defense rim-protection and generally shows a more willing, cleaner shooting stroke, while Carter provides a more technically sound, all-around game with a stronger post-up presence down low.
Mo continues to flash a rotation-level skill-set as a shot-swatting pick-and-pop threat, just last night becoming the first player in Orlando Magic franchise history with 90+ threes & 90+ blocks in a single season.
Wendell has proven to be more reliably consistent as a traditional big man with modern attributes. The type that gets comp’d to Al Horford every step of the way, because while he might not jump out of the gym, there’s few holes for anyone to poke at in his game. Someone who checks all the boxes for a big, and doesn’t hurt you in ways other bigs might by getting beat on switches or slowing down the pace with post-up demands.
The post-up scoring numbers are not where one would want them to be for a primary scoring option big, but when accounting for kick-out passes, a creation hub appears. Wendell scores a so-so rate of 0.86 PPP in 83 possessions on the block this season; however, in the 26 times where Carter dishes to teammates out of the post, Orlando scores 1.27 PPP. On non post-up shots around the basket, Wendell is scoring 1.4 PPP on 277 poss, ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Another complementary contrasting style between Bamba and Carter is how they best execute P&R. Wendell has become a force rolling to the basket: scoring 1.28 PPP on 97 possessions. Bamba thrives when popping, scoring 1.0 PPP on 54 pick-and-pops this season. Overall, Wendell is scoring 1.05 PPP as P&R Roll Man in 204 possessions and Bamba is scoring 0.9 PPP on 89 possessions.
Both are capable of either role, forcing defenses to stay honest. Carter is scoring 0.9 PPP on 92 pick-and-pops and 0.84 PPP on 19 slipped screens this season. Bamba is scoring 0.9 PPP on 30 rolls to the rack in P&R this year.
The ability to run P&R actions with two bigs who can pop and roll opens up all sorts of possible play-calls. Sets like double-drag and horns take advantage of this, where two screeners are used to confuse the defense and create mismatches. Defenses have to respect both bigs’ ability to shoot or dive, making it much harder to cheat for steals.
Wendell becoming a more willing 3PT shooter forces defenses to respect his shot on the closeout, opening up driving lanes. Overall, Carter scores 1.02 PPP in 162 Spot Up situations this year. In 94 of those Spot Ups, Carter takes a (C&S) 0-dribble jumper and scores 1.064 PPP. The other 68 Spot Us for Carter have resulted in putting the ball on the floor, taking a dribble jumper 18 times for 0.72 PPP, getting to the basket 34 times for 1.24 PPP, and taking a FLOATA 7 times for 1.14 PPP.
While both technically space the floor, Mo Bamba still has the edge from deep. Bamba is shooting 38.5% on 3.6 C&S 3PA per game, while Wendell is hitting 33.2% on 3.3 C&S 3PA per game. Here’s how the catch-and-shoot floor-spacing numbers have shaken out for all Orlando Magic players taking 2+ C&S threes per game this season:
Carter growing into a confident three-point shooter has been slow, but legit. A few games in, Wendell seemed too shy to shoot. By the 20 game-mark, Carter was letting it fly so often that defenders were jumping at pump-fakes, creating more driving opportunities for Wendell Carter Jr.
According to @MarkC_NBA , Wendell never shot over two three-point attempts in a 10-game span with the Bulls. Nowadays, Carter launches over three triples a night while averaging just under three drives per game. Wendell drives to the right 3x more often than he drives to the left when Spotting Up this season.
Wendell is scoring efficiently in nearly every playtype. The face-up ISO has become a go-to move for the big man, using his acceleration, strength, and body control to beat opposing bigs to the rack. Wendell is scoring a robust .97 PPP on 34 ISOs this year.
Overall in the half court, Carter is scoring 1.02 PPP on 767 possessions. Breaking down the scoring efficiency by the remaining Synergy Playtypes: Wendell Carter Jr. is scoring 1.2 PPP on Cuts, 1.6 PPP on Putbacks, and 1.2 PPP in Transition.
Wendell is reaping the rewards of his hard work. All those practice reps are finally paying off. Carter does the little things, adding up to the sum that is the all-around big standing before us. Wendell always seems to be in the right place at the right time, whether that be re-screening the pick in P&R or making a rotation to closeout.
Magic fans should be estatic to finally have a starting big man who never has to be reminded to give it his all on both ends every time he steps onto the court. The Horace Grant goggles only makes the fan-favorite status more official.
Wendell Carter Jr. is averaging career-highs in points (15), rebounds (10), assists (3), and true-shooting percentage (60%). Those numbers have only gone up as the season progresses.
Since January 1st, Carter’s up to 18 PTS and 11 REB on 62% TS% !
Since the All-Star Break, Wendell’s dropping 20 PPG and 12 REB on 67% TS% !!
On March 20th, Wendell posted a career-high 30 points and 16 boards !!!
Collecting intel on draft prospects isn’t just for draft purposes. Front offices need as much information as possible to make the best long-term decisions for the franchise. Those player profiles provide a base background to work from for future evaluations: how was the player’s development trajectory viewed as a standalone prospect before they entered an NBA team setting, where wildcards like coaching, teammates, and culture factor into a young player’s role, opportunity, and production?
Here, Jeff Weltman, describes The Magic’s long-founded interest in Wendell Carter Jr.’s game and how the benefits of prospect scouting goes far beyond draft purposes:
“You always try to figure out, ‘What’s going on with this player, what’s going on with this team dynamic’ and it all kind of added up favorably for Wendell,” Weltman said. “We saw a talented guy who’s about the right things and felt like he had a lot of growth potential and he’d get to whatever heights he’s capable of. You bet on the person. He’s everything you want your team to be about.”
- Jeff Weltman, Orlando Magic President of Basketball Operations, via Khobi Price’s great feature story on Wendell Carter Jr. in the Orlando Sentinel
Another factor in these pick-and-roll relationships is the ball-handler setting them up. Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz run the majority of P&R for this squad. Wagner’s and Anthony’s P&R Ball-Handler efficiency has been identical via points per possession this season, with Cole racking up nearly twice the volume.
Cole Anthony scores 0.82 PPP on 447 P&R BH possessions and creates 0.93 PPP on 850 P&R BH possessions including passes; Franz Wagner scores 0.83 PPP in 301 P&R BH possessions and creates 0.93 PPP in the 443 P&R BH possessions including passes.
Cole has more total assists (63) to Wendell than Franz (53) this season, but each look to set up the big in different ways. Cole tends to drive at the opposing team’s big so he can hit Carter or Bamba with a no-look behind-the-back bounce pass into their shooting pocket for a catch-and-shoot triple. Franz operates more methodically, reading the defense one step at a time until he’s caught his man “in jail” behind him, creating a 2-on-1 between Franz and the two bigs.
Franz shooting efficiency (eFG%) jumps from 47.3% with Wendell OFF the court up to 54% with Wendell ON the court, all the way up to 57.4% with WCJ as the only big.
With WCJ ON: Franz has a 38.9% AST% to Wendell. With WCJ OFF, Franz has 31.6% AST% to other bigs, as of 3/26 via the Two-Man Game app created by @MarkC_NBA.
Wagner thrives in all sorts of roles, scoring 1.02 PPP in 251 Spot Up possessions, 1.14 PPP in 200 Transition possessions, 1.06 PPP in 51 ISO possessions, 1.07 PPP in 45 Off Screen possessions, and 1.10 PPP on 41 Putbacks this season. Franz even ranks among the tops in the league on Cuts, rating in the 93rd percentile with 1.5 PPP on 84 possessions this season.
The player setting up Franz the most is the team’s point guard, Cole Anthony. Cole assisting Franz 91 times this year ranks 26th in Assist Combos. Anthony’s ability to attack the paint and Wagner’s intuition for well-timed cuts creates a mutually beneficial relationship where Cole initiates the play as an on-ball creator who breaks down a defense and has the outlet of finding Franz at any point on kick-outs or cut-ins.
The Wagner-Carter Connection has been super beneficial to both sides, a synergistic relationship of cerebral team-first talents with great feel for the game, so much so it seems the pair has been playing together since grade school.
Cole Anthony-Franz Wagner-Wendell Carter as a 3-man combo share a +0.81 Net Rating in 1,114 minutes together, a positive sign moving forward.
Franz is the only rookie to play every game this season. Wagner’s scoring 15 PPG on 56% TS% with a 47-35-86 shooting line on 13 FGA, 4 3PA, and 3 FTA per game while pulling down 5 REB and averaging a 3/1.5 AST/TO ratio.
Even as a first-year player, Franz’ feel for the game is already special.
Franz’ secret sauce on attacking closeouts is looking off his man as Franz attacks the paint, appearing to survey the floor for a kick-out before unleashing the no-look spin-move on the unsuspecting defender for a clean look at a layup. Chef Wagner has welcomed so many unfortunate guests to his kitchen, slicing and dicing up the competition, one might think cooking foes is his mission.
Here’s the full rotation of Orlando Magic players who participated in at least ten of the sixteen games during this stretch: Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Mo Bamba, Chuma Okeke, R.J. Hampton, Moritz Wagner, Terrence Ross, and Admiral Schofield.
Jalen Suggs has missed half of this post-All-Star-Break run due to injury. Jonathan Isaac was ruled out yet for another season, with hopes to return by the start of the next one. Arguably Orlando’s two most impactful defenders when healthy are out, yet the remaining Magic roster is competing hard enough to earn the 2nd-best defense in the league without them. Imagine how high this level of hustle and effort can reach when the most competitive 20-56 team of all time is finally at full strength.
Data Sources as of 3/29: Cleaning The Glass, Basketball Reference, NBA Stats, PBP Stats (and @MarkC_NBA as of 3/27)
References: Orlando Sentinel, Orlando Magic
For more basketball analysis, Orlando Magic Film Breakdowns, scouting, and team-building thoughts, Follow @BeyondTheRK on Twitter!