5 Quick Orlando Magic 2022 Off-Season Predictions
The Orlando Magic have the #1 Pick and $27M in cap space in the summer of 2022. Will these patient team builders make a splash?
1. The Orlando Magic select Chet Holmgren with the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft
The World says Jabari.
The draft diehards whisper Paolo.
This Magic front office screams Chet.
A tall, tough shot-maker with an endlessly hungry work ethic and a high release point that looks as unblockable as Durant’s, Jabari Smith Jr’s bucket-getting game can be a joy to watch. Smith’s defensive tools provide him a baseline level of rim-protection and frontcourt versatility to work with. The Rashard Lewis comp only strengthens the hopes and dreams of most Magic fans.
Jaden Ivey deserves a shout-out here, as his first step burst parallels lightning-quick guards like John Wall and Ja Morant before him. His deceleration and body control is a weapon for breaking down defenses. While concerns around finishing, effort, and efficiency seem to have knocked him out of the top pick discussion nationally, Ivey has a skill that no peer in his draft class possesses: a turbo button
Paolo Banchero moves around the court like a dancing bear. A powerful scoring creator who forces his way to the rim, Banchero’s burly body control and ball-skills allow him to cross over and pull up over the opponent at any moment. Regarded as the best creator for teammates in the draft, some scouts see Paolo as the highest-potential upside star in the class due to his all-around combination of size and skill.
As long as Banchero competes, his strength and awareness will help him hang around defensively in an ever-growing positionless league. If Orlando were to move down a few spots, looking for future firsts and a talented prospect who fits, another name to watch is Paolo’s Duke teammate, AJ Griffin, who looks the part as the premier off-ball three-point shooter of this draft class.
Chet Holmgren’s defensive instincts as a rim-protector are next-level, his all-around offensive skills are well-rounded, and his tough shot-making over post-up mismatches has real potential. Haters have already deemed this draft’s unicorn to be “too skinny”, in a league where every team starts a slim stretch big. Orlando could always use the mystery shrouding their selection to move back a slot, add a future first, and still get their guy. While all of these prospects deserve to be fully considered, all signs point to this Magic front office targeting Chet.
2. Terrence Ross traded on draft night
T-Ross gets his wish.
While not technically requesting a trade, Terrence Ross recently publicly mentioned that he’d like to move on from O-Town and play elsewhere, partially due to a feeling of uncertainty in where he stands between the last front office regime and this new one. Terrence is, afterall, the last player Rob Hennigan added to Orlando’s roster; however, Ross was ironically traded here from Toronto while current Magic PBOY Jeff Weltman was working in the Raptors’ front office.
Contenders looking for a sixth man who can carry bench offenses, create his own shot, and spread the floor from three can look no further than T-Ross. The former dunk contest champion’s defensive woes may have held up a deal to this point, but it only takes one team to think they’re one piece away.
Do any of the Lakers, Bucks, Nuggets, Celtics, Sixers, Suns, Mavs, Raps, or Cavs need a 2-guard who can get a bucket at a moment’s notice? There’s only one way to find out.
3. After turning down a team-friendly offer by Orlando, Mo Bamba leaves in Restricted Free Agency for a better offer to start for Pistons, Nets, or Thunder.
With Orlando drafting Chet in this hypothetical scenario and Wendell’s claim as the Magic’s anchor down low growing stronger, Bamba’s days as a starter in Orlando look numbered. Even if the pick is Jabari or Paolo, Mo’s starting role is no guarantee. While Mo Bamba continues to prove he can fill a specific role in this league as a rim-rolling C&S 3pt threat who rebounds well and racks up blocks in help defense, his status in Orlando gets murkier as years go by.
Ultimately, the decision lies in the hand of the Magic. Technically, Orlando doesn’t have to make an offer, as they can match any offer Mo receives from any team in RFA. This front office has tended to do right by the player, dealing them to good situations. Gordon, Vucevic, Fournier were all dealt to playoff teams the same day once the team decided it was time to move on from the old core, and only the Vooch deal really brought back any worthwhile pieces, unless Hampton unlocks his Barbosa role or the future protected likely-late first from Denver pans out into something of value.
With Wendell, Isaac, and one of Chet/Jabari/Paolo on the horizon, Orlando may be inclined to offer Bamba a rate they see as fair for a rotation big, similar to Wendell’s recent 4yr/$50M deal. Mo will probably test the market for a higher salary and a promise to start, and maybe the front office lets him walk to do just that, rather than matching a high salary offer for the sake of retaining a familiar fourth big.
Some fans may be running out of patience, but more importantly, teams move on to new prospects with “potential” to excite those same fans every year. If Mo wants a starting gig, he may end up checking around to see if the grass is greener, rather than face an uphill battle for playing time in Orlando.
Detroit is one of the few teams with loads of cap space this summer. The Pistons have their primary initiator in place in Cade and recently took a flyer on Bagley’s bouncy talent, perhaps Bamba’s shot-blocking, rim-rolling, and floor-stretching fills a starting role as a pick-and-pop play-finisher there. The Nets and Thunder are other nice fits where Bamba can focus on the things he does best. Maybe a deal makes sense for all parties between Brooklyn and Orlando for free agents Nic Claxton and Mo Bamba to swap jerseys.
4. Orlando does NOT use its $27M in Cap Space to offer any max offers, but instead makes filler one-year deals or reasonable risks on good basketball players
Even with a fine free agent class and plenty of salary to spend, the prediction here is that Orlando stays firm on its cap space until next summer’s star-studded class of 2023, perhaps after gaining respect amongst players around the league by sustaining a competitive culture for another season. Also, next summer is the Wemby draft, with Scoot and the Thompson Twins making noise; the Magic have little reason to be too good too quickly, at least for one more dip into the tanking waters when the timing is right. This front office’s career history in free agent signings has seen spotty results, but they’ve shown a patient belief to not rush the process to this point since taking the reigns in Orlando, and there’s no reason to think that will change.
Still, a salary floor must be met. Maybe Orlando brings back Mo Bamba, Gary Harris, Bol Bol, and Robin Lopez on team-friendly deals, or even look outside. If next year’s cap stays relatively unaffected, why not take a flyer on Nic Claxton, Chris Boucher, Jalen Smith, TJ Warren, or Aaron Holiday to see if their production takes a leap in a new situation? Other free agents like Gary Payton II, Taurean Prince, Thad Young, Jordan Nwora, Amir Coffey, Cody and Caleb Martin can help fill out the rotation.
Oladipo’s a free agent? The Magic have cap space? Fans can only dream of Orlandipo…
5. BOTH second-rounders are traded on draft night for Cash Considerations or future picks
You’re watching the draft with your buddies. You have your favorite draft night sleeper in mind. He somehow slips to the Magic’s pick in the second round. The pick is at the podium — but wait.
“We have a trade to announce!” blares across the bottom line banner.
The Magic have dealt their second round pick for cash. Your draft night dreams that you didn’t know you had until earlier that night are crushed. You sit there asking yourself, “why won’t anyone let Sharife Cooper cook?” You never get an answer.
We all know the deal by now. Orlando has traded SIX of their eight second-round picks since this front office took over. Are higher-ups stepping in to cut costs? Is it a (boring, but reasonable) belief that second-rounders rarely end up NBA players, let alone long-term rotation contributors? Do they cap a limit on how many young players a locker room can handle? Magic fans only know one thing: Cash Considerations don’t suit up on the floor or cheapen the drinks in the arena.
Will this year bring any changes? Only the basketball gods can say. Anything’s on the table, though Orlando adding three rookies to this young roster feels unlikely. Maybe Orlando ends up only keeping one second-rounder, adding BPA at 32 or 35.
While the traditional odds of finding NBA players decreases the farther one falls in the draft, these last few classes seem to have more talented prospects worthy of a pro opportunity than ever. There’s reason to believe that possible rotation players can be found in the second round, where contract value heavily favors the teams, even after the top lottery talent goes off the board; how, in some years, the level of prospect in the late teens and twenties truly isn’t far off from the quality of prospects available in the thirties. Good basketball players in recent drafts, such as DaQuan Jeffries, may rather go undrafted for more control rather than be restricted to the salary restrictions and player movement limitations of being drafted in round two.
The names popping up most often for that second round range in Magic rumors seem to be Christian Braun, Jaylin Williams, and Gabriele Procida. Chet’s and Jalen’s Gonzaga teammate, Andrew Nembhard, could still be on the board by then. If an exciting first-round talent like Tari Eason, Nikola Jovic, or MarJon Beauchamp slipped to the second round, that could be great value for Orlando, hoping to add a possible rotation player with a late pick.
Don’t be surprised if you hear T-Ross and two-seconds have been packaged together on draft night, hopefully for one solid piece holding even more value, like a protected future first for trade ammo.
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