Paolo Banchero's Magical Playoff Leap
Superstar on the rise? Paolo Banchero shining when the lights are brightest in Orlando's Most Exciting Season Since The Last One.
In front of a roaring Orlando crowd, Banchero dropped 31 PTS to lead the Magic to a 39-point blowout over the Cavs in his first-ever home playoff game.
Game 3 against Cleveland became an instant classic that will be remembered as one of the all-time Magic Moments in the team’s playoff history.
Banchero scored the most points in a home playoff debut of any player to ever don the blue and white pinstripes; Game 3 Paolo quite literally put on one of the greatest Orlando Magic playoff performances ever.
Jalen Suggs made Magic home playoff debut history himself, scoring 24 PTS, which ties Shaq for the 3rd-most of any Magic player ever!
Orlando’s supporting cast has struggled mightily from downtown, especially when playing on the road in Cleveland, clogging driving lanes for the ball-handlers.
Penetrating the paint to suck in defenders off shooters becomes more challenging when those defenders are camped in the paint because they don’t respect the shooters.
When you add in the elite paint protection of Jarrett Allen (minus a Game 5 injury) and Evan Mobley, breaking down the defense by attacking the rack becomes harder.
Mobley showed off his instincts and length protecting the rim on the marquee play of Game 5 with the game-saving block on Franz’ layup attempt, all while containing Paolo to his most inefficient individual matchup of the series.
To make up for the lack of spacing in one of the only paths for Orlando to win this series, Paolo has pulled up with jumpers for the moment and shot out of his mind.
The potential superstar is shining when the lights are brightest, hitting the impossible shots that define a tough-shot making superstar.
As @matissa15 notes in his article (stats via Dunks & Threes), Paolo is down 2 rim attempts per game in this series compared to the playoffs, while his shooting efficiency has been off the charts on shots considered tough even for him, implying an unsustainable model of future success.
Are the rim attempts down because Paolo is settling, because of the lack of spacing, because of the elite rim-protectors standing in the paint, or because these baseline turnaround fadeaways and elbow middy pull-ups are the only shots even remotely open and the same shots he works on to live up to these star-making moments?
Everything above can be a factor.
Through 5 games, Paolo has had historic ups, scoring 31 PTS & 39 PTS, and lowly downs, recording 9 TO in Game 1 & 9 PTS in Game 4.
Mat makes a fair comparison of Paolo’s production to Paul George, who is scoring around the same 25 PPG in the playoffs at the sameshooting efficiency (51% eFG%), both with games over 20 PTS and games below 10 PTS, which is where we should mention the variance involved with players taking a high volume of 3PT shots.
While Paul George has proven to be an efficient pull-up shooter more consistently, he accurately notes Paolo Banchero has not quite done that yet in his efficiency on high volume, even if the shots look cool when they go in.
Paolo has not attacked the paint this series at his normal rate.
Shooting just 1/7 FG near the rim in Game 3 and 2/2 FG in Game 5, he’s shown a hesitance to drive to the rack against Cleveland’s twin towers, striving instead for a versatile shot profile around the court of treys and middies.
Paolo Banchero’s 31 PTS Game 3 Shot Chart via NBA Stats:
Paolo Banchero’s 39 PTS Game 5 Shot Chart via NBA Stats:
Consistent shot creation via self-created drives to the rim creates efficient shots for all: the driver can score at the rim, draw free throws, or kick out to open 3pt shooters after drawing extra attention from breaking down the defense.
Playoff defenses counter by focusing on taking away efficient shots for opponents, forcing opponents into tough shots with bad value, like floaters and middy pull-ups.
So, if one can regularly create and convert those same tough shots, with the tight handle, sound body control, and soft shooting touch to take and make them consistently, a killer floater or midrange pull-up jumper that one can get off anytime can be a reliable scoring weapon come playoff time.
The ability to post-up, face up, or back down from the midrange, creates another halfcourt scoring hub for efficient scorers in those playtypes to find makeable buckets, draw fouls, and look for kickouts as an alternate way to break down the defense below the arc when the paint is clogged before the possession begins.
Having the range to pull-up from three on top of it all creates an all-around versatile scoring attack with few holes to exploit when one can do everything average or better.
Against a Top-5 defense, Paolo Banchero’s showed up and showed out, making superstar shots that are bad for the average player yet good looks for the star tough shotmakers who have proven they can make them consistently.
The question is if Banchero’s pull-up shooting is a sustainable offense going forward.
Is this a first round flash in the pan, or a peek into the next decade of Orlando Magic playoff basketball?
The shots Banchero is hitting in these big playoff moments are the ones that define a superstar tough shotmaker’s legacy. In Paolo’s 5 cracks of the bat, he’s knocked 2 of the greatest Orlando Magic playoff performances in team history right out of the park.
With fundamental footwork, perfected pumpfakes, and smooth baseline turnaround fadeaways combining the aesthetics of Denver Nuggets legends like Carmelo Anthony swishing shots as he falls out of bounds and Nikola Jokic squaring up his shoulders at the elbow to drop in a rainbow jumper before the buzzer, Paolo Banchero has adjusted to taking and making the shots the defense gives him in his first playoff run.
This isn’t the first time Pull-Up Paolo’s made an appearance, even if he’s not overly efficient in the area just yet.
The baseline backdown turnaround fadeaway has been his "kill-shot” staple since Day 1 when its time to throw a knockout punch in the clutch.
Banchero’s been showing off the fundamental comparisons to Carmelo’s middy-pull-up game dating back as far as his first NBA outings in Summer League.
Being efficient at inefficient shots may be the most valuable scoring trait a player can have in the playoffs.
Taking and making the shots the defense wants you to take gives the shooter the advantage.
Consistent high-volume tough shotmakers are more valuable in the playoffs.
Few players are allowed to take and make bad shots every game, but the real stars are able to scare defenses anyway, just by being a mere threat to shoot at any moment.
The defense dials up, packs the paint, runs you off the line, and forces you into the least valuable looks worth the least amount of PPP, like floaters, hooks, and midrange pull-ups; stars with the green light to take and make those tough shots from crafty finishes at the rim to clean turnaround ten foot fades suddenly become rare and invaluable when the goal simply becomes finding a makeable bucket consistently.
If a player can get to his shot; no matter where it’s taken from on the floor; with the handle, feel, and touch to make that shot consistently, draw free throws, and/or create open looks for others; he can be valuable efficient scoring creator in the playoffs.
Reliable walking buckets gain even more playing time when they offer two-way impact, no holes for the defense to exploit:
Defend your position, be mobile enough to switch, tag rollers, rotate well, poke out in passing lanes for deflections, steal without reaching or fouling, protect the rim on help-side, make good team-first decisions on the ball, move with good shot relocation timing off the ball, make decisions with the half-second dribble-pass-shoot mindset, feel and react to changing defenses, get buckets at multiple levels, shoot from deep, draw fouls and make your free throws, keep an eye out for the open man and be able to hit him before the defense collapses, then you are ready to contribute to a real contender’s run to the title.
Sound easy enough?
Elite talent combining into the sum of their parts for consistent efficient scoring and stops on defense creates ultimate two-way floor balance, the ideal version of a good basketball team, one that brings a menacing, overwhelming defense that feels big, long, and strong at every position along with a versatile offense efficient in a variety of playtypes by different players who make team-first dribble-pass-shoot decisions with the ball and can create good (efficient) shots for themselves and others.
Paolo’s and Franz’ playoff performances in Games 3-5 showed they are ready to step up to meet the moment, even if the ultimate goal isn’t reached this season.
Longterm contending empires aren’t built overnight, just ask Rome; a lottery team last season now being 2 wins away from the 2nd round after improving by double digit regular season wins 2 years in a row is a steady rise for the league’s 4th-youngest team.
Building an offense outward from the big wing stars can be an advantage in the playoffs when it creates mismatches and good looks consistently.
Contenders around the league built around big wing stars have found help in playmaking shot creation and scoring versatility. The Clippers added Harden to create steady offense when with and without their semi-available tough shotmaking stars.
Boston upgraded its defensive stoppers and scoring versatility between Kristaps’ tall tough shot-making and Jrue’s ISO mismatch hunting as a secondary creator. Maximizing the production of stars like Jrue and Kristaps around superstars by lowering usage but increasing open shot opportunities in the playtypes they thrive in.
With basically as much cap space as any team this summer, all their draft picks in tact, a coach every player loves playing for, and a hustling startup culture built around two rising offensive stars in Paolo and Franz and two defensive anchors out front and in back with Suggs and Isaac, the destination of Orlando is as attractive to potential new players as it possibly can be.
When Orlando is rolling into free agency with this much feel-good hype and cap space to spend (hat tip to Orlando Magic Legend John Gabriel for inventing the strategy of clearing cap space for free agency through trades), the Magic have proven to sign A Guy Or Two (see: Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill, Rashard Lewis, Horace Grant)
Fans are already hoping for superteams, debating between a pull-up shooting halfcourt playmaking late-game decision-maker like Trae Young to throwing the max at the most impactful D&3 tough shot-making star available in Paul George.
When the upgrade is from a steady hand in Gary Harris to a star player on the wing, it’s hard to go wrong when the team has money to spend in a market that becomes much more attractive when the team is ascending-playoff-team-for-the-foreseeable future level competitive.
A traditional point would likely improve team shot creation, but the most important hole that needs filling for this team would be a versatile scoring sniper from deep who stretches defenses *on* the ball from deep, draw extra defenders over and through screens, who can make team-first reads to use that extra attention to create for others on rolls, cuts, lobs, and kickouts.
Shooting gravity is the gravitational pull a player has sucking in defenders the moment he touches the ball or gets to his spot on the floor. Does he immediately draw two defenders onto the ball to create the four-on-three action advantage?
The highest combination of volume, efficiency, and confidence to shoot from deep will have the deepest shooting gravity. The more eyes, energy, and effort the defense spends on stopping one player or action is the gravity of that player or action.
This Magic front office usually isn’t willing to excuse bad defense, no matter the offensive output, so it seems unlikely they would pursue a high offense-impact player who brings negative defensive impact.
When the team defense is mostly accounted for through the core with plus-defenders filling out the rotation, though, one quick fix for this offense could be a modern scoring creator who specializes in two things:
1) On-ball 3pt sniper shooting gravity that is too much of a threat for defenses to ignore, forcing defenders to fight over and through screens to switch, trap, and hedge, creating open shot opportunities for the team when doubled and swishing pull-up jumpers when left open.
2) Playmaking feel creating good shots for the team, open looks at the rim and from deep to shoot 3s or attack the closeout and rev up the drive-and-kick machine.
Every team is better with a point guard on the floor getting everyone to their spots. Sometimes the point guard happens to be 6’10” 250lb taking elbow fadeaways.
This Magic team has two tall reliable star scorers who have elevated their play against an elite defense through a 5-game sample size this playoffs.
Franz and Paolo are primary scoring creators who have found makeable shots for themselves and teammates all series.
Wagner brings methodical P&R gliding runners through the lane; Banchero offers a throwback big wing face-up post-up floor-stretching midrange assassin who attacks the rim with the speed of a fat kid who loves cake.
Creating open threes and rim-attempts hasn’t been an issue; making them has been.
When your lead scoring options look to kick just as often as they look to score, they already fill a bit of a traditional point guard role, even if its from Point Center like Jokic or Giannis or a Point Forward like LeBron or Luka.
The Magic’s revolving drive-and-kick-down-the-door creates a well-balanced attack involving all its best offensive creators in their ideal roles to maximize efficiency of the roster available.
Orlando’s paint and spray offense primarily relies on the paint penetration of post-ups from Banchero; pick-and-roll drive and kicks from Franz, Cole, and Fultz; and ISO/DHO bullyball drives from Suggs.
Franz has assisted Paolo as many times as Franz has assisted his brother, Mo Wagner. (48) Suggs has assisted Franz as many times as Paolo has assisted Wendell. (47) Franz has assisted Wendell as many times as Paolo has assisted Mo. (36) data via PBP Stats.
Franz - Suggs - Paolo have played the 19th most minutes of any 3-man combo in the league, via NBA Stats.
Isaac - Cole - Mo have the 23rd highest Net Rating of any 3-man combo with 500+ MIN.
Paolo leads the team 1st and 2nd in Assist Combos, creating for Franz and Suggs the most.
Which pairs of Magic players assist each other the most?
79 Paolo to Franz
73 Paolo to Suggs
62 Ingles to Mo
52 Suggs to Paolo / Cole to Mo
48 Franz to Paolo / Franz to Mo
47 Suggs to Franz / Paolo to WCJ
41 Franz to Suggs
36 Franz to WCJ / Paolo to Mo
35 Cole to Franz
30 Suggs to WCJ
Contenders can only be good at two sides of the ball: offense and defense. When a team rates Top-12 in defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency, thats a telltale sign of a contender, since every Champion since Shaq and Kobe has held those marks.
Earning a 5-seed and competing for the 2nd round off an elite defense and strong drive-and-kick offense through efficient foul-drawing bullyball, one of the only things Orlando has left to figure out to elevate to an elite offense is spacing the floor.
Rounding out the 3pt-capable closeout-attack at every position and/or finding that ever-evasive on-ball pull-up sniper with shooting-gravity who will pull 2+ defenders over a screen above the arc could unlock this team’s ultimate two-way floor balance.
Orlando has constructed a consistently elite defense through multiple seasons now built on length, strength, and plus-defenders at nearly every position, bookended by the screen-navigating point-of-attack ballhawk known as Jalen Suggs and rim-protecting big wing switching one-man defense in Jonathan Isaac.
Suggs has developed across the board, emerging from one of the lowest impact ratings in the league as a rookie to a knockdown high volume 3pt threat, efficient ISO Handoff and Transition scorer, and strong secondary playmaker off drives on top of being the most active screen-navigating hustlin’ point-of-attack defender alive.
Jalen Suggs: The Backcourt Ballhawk
How many teams have an elite defense anchored by the shortest player in the lineup? Jalen Suggs clocking in: First Team, All-Hustle. Winning possessions by sneakily flying around the arc and pickpocketing opponents at the point of attack utilizing strength, speed, timing, and awareness, Jalen Suggs is everywhere at once, locking down opposing guards, swi…
The Magic have two 20ppg big wing scorers who can go for 30+ on any night, creating makeable shots for themselves and open shots for teammates through their scoring creation, in spite of the spacing issues restricting room for drives.
With two high-volume efficient big wing scorers in hand and a lockdown cornerback in the backcourt, could these rising stars’ shots be made even easier with a traditional playmaker setting them up, or would a more versatile scoring attack with floor-stretching tough-shot-making plus-defenders flanking them be more effective?
Is internal development enough to reach these heights, or is a consolidation trade and/or marquee free agent signing inevitable in the team’s future to fill in the blanks?
What is Orlando’s best path towards sustainable playoff success to build a longterm contender who has realistic title chances every season for the foreseeable future?
Find out next time on Magic Ball Z!
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Data via PBP Stats, Synergy Sports, NBA Stats