Ranking 50 Orlando Magic 2024 Off-Season Targets Into Tiers
Ranking 50 Orlando Magic 2024 Off-Season Targets Into Tiers
It's time to pour some gasoline on this playoff team's fire. Ignite the Blue and White!
The city of Orlando hasn’t been this attractive of a basketball destination since the promise of Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson landed Rashard Lewis in free agency:
Sunshowers; Orange Juice; No State Tax; 2 offensive All-Star level franchise cornerstones; a Top-5 defense anchored by two aces; a roster of team-first players on team-friendly deals; max-salary cap space to play with and all draft picks +1 additional first (Denver 2025) in hand.
Today, The Magic’s front office prioritizes sound two-way players; smart and active defenders with team-first feel who can attack closeouts with the dribble, pass, or shot.
The team’s franchise player, Paolo Banchero, says he wants to play with a point guard to orchestra the offense who also isn’t shy to shoot a three when the ball finds him.
Quote via Ben Golliver/Washington Post’s interview with Paolo Banchero
Highlighting the team’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Team Strengths
2 All-Star level big wing scorers who draw fouls and create paint and spray offense for team
2 All-Defense level anchors at point of attack and big wing protecting the rim
2 Rotation point guards allowing team to have one table-setter in at all times
4 Different big man player types who do most two-way things well, but not quite all
Energetic plus-defenders who make team-first decisions throughout rotation
Elite defense forces turnovers and rebounds well as a team
Reliable offense by drawing fouls at high rate and scoring efficiently through young stars
Team Weaknesses
All-around 3pt shooting off the ball and on the ball, most notably someone who can pull-up for threes out of pick-and-roll with the volume and efficiency to draw two defenders out onto the perimeter and force defenders *over* screens so they can’t duck under them
Reliable halfcourt shot creation. A player with good decision-making feel and traditional point guard playmaking skills to run the offense, set up each scorer, and create advantages involving the ideal mismatch/situation/playtype so the surrounding star scorers don’t have to also be the team’s primary creators.
Consistent overall two-way play from the center despite versatile depth at the position. The only upgrade is finding an even more impactful starter who impacts both sides of the floor and does all the little things well while providing mismatch scoring in advantageous matchups — a center who can defend other bigs, survive on perimeter switches, protect the rim, spread the floor from three, set sound screens, playmake on handoffs, hit tough post-up midrange shots, make team-first passing reads to find the open man, rebound big and finish strong at the rim.
This Magic team shows legitimate playoff-level strengths to build upon going forward, yet also has a few clear weaknesses to develop.
Will these needs be addressed through internal development, free agent flexibility, or a consolidation trade before prospects and picks lose value around the league?
One strength around building out this offense is the versatility of efficient scoring playtypes between Paolo Isos+Post-Ups, Franz Pick-and-Rolls, and Suggs Handoffs.
Each possession can be initiated or completed through these efficient actions.
The first question becomes how should these sets be utilized: as opportunities to create a good look for the team, or as reliable modes of scoring individually?
Is Paolo more point-forward, point-center, or Point Melo?
Banchero combines fundamental aspects of big men and big wings between killer footwork, postup fadeaways, faceup pull-ups, strong defense and solid rebounding, while usually making team-first plays creating open looks out of double teams.
When surrounded by stars on Team USA, Head Coach Steve Kerr went small at times, using Paolo in a Draymondish role at the 5 for his playmaking and versatility. While this had offensive advantages, this decision also created issues with not filling traditional big man roles, most notably not showing enough size against international opponents when it comes to interior defense, rebounding, rim-protection.
In Orlando, pairing Paolo with different bigs can produce a variety of results; depending on the matchup, this can create mismatches and advantages.
With Jonathan Isaac or Goga Bitadze at the five, the back line of defense has a bonafide rim-protector and the offense features a dunker spot play-finisher. Isaac also provides dynamic wing scoring and streaky shooting, and while Goga hasn’t shown that floor-spacing in the pros, he provides a stronger presence for more traditional post-up defense, rim-protection, and rebounding. Goga’s best chunk of the season came as the play-finishing nail to Paolo’s shot creating hammer after being given the opportunity to play with the starting unit once Wendell went down, where Paolo and friends kept a winning streak alive with the third team replacing most of the starters.
Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Wagner provide an offensive ying to the defensive yang of the other two bigs, with Wendell being the best all-around option of any due to his natural team-first two-way feel, sound screen setting, strong defensive rotations, and clean pick-and-pop rim-rolling, even if he’s not always the biggest guy out there to protect the rim or slow down other bigs.
Mo’s energy is valued by the coaching staff’s hustle culture, with Wagner’s rim-rolling spinning hook game destroying mismatches out of the second unit’s staple offense: Joe Ingles & Cole Anthony taking turns running endless pick-and-rolls.
While Isaac looms with dynamic big wing potential and off-the-charts defensive impact, he must be freed from the minutes restriction to be maximized.
The starting center spot is Wendell’s to lose, with the team declining offers for Carter at the trade dealine. Wendell has proven chemistry with Franz in the two-man game, evidenced here by hand-tracking every assist between The Wagner-Carter Connection back in 2021-22:
The Wagner Carter Connection
Franz takes turns with Paolo as the first option scorer on a night-to-night basis; either one could go off for 20 or 30 at any moment. Wagner does his damage methodically, usually spamming pick-and-rolls and handoffs before driving diagonally across the paint from the wing to the opposite side of the rim for a gliding falling-away reverse layup that can only be classified as something between a fadeaway finger-roll and a running hook shot.
Jalen Suggs is a natural connector, making the right play for the team, and has developed as a finisher at the rim, shooting consistency from deep, and playmaking reads. Suggs has scored efficiently in handoffs his entire career, where his streaky outside shooting and advantage-creation downhill athleticism can be unleashed in halfcourt. Suggs and Paolo can both out-muscle certain matchups in ISO situations, and all three of the young stars, along with Cole Anthony, are fast break fiends.
Banchero thrives when his first job is to score while still taking what the defense give him when they send extra defenders. A north-south force of nature, Paolo is efficient in downhill actions like faceup ISO, backdown postups, short-rolling after setting a pick or initiating pick-and-roll from as far away from the rim as possible.
Kicking out of the paint after sucking in the defense comes natural for Banchero.
Initiating the entire offense, every play, takes a focused effort best suited for a player who can fill traditional point guard duties meant to set up the team in their best position, someone who can create advantages for Paolo, Franz, and Suggs to make life easier as scorers, rather than ask those scorers to create for others every play.
You know the old saying, “if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any?”
Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony bring steady team-first playmaking to both units. Even if streaky, Cole can shoot and heat up in the clutch from deep, midrange, and at the rim. Markelle still finds his middy, but injuries hampered his impact this season.
If the team can’t acquire a third star while the young core is on rookie deals, Orlando needs a smart point guard who plays sound defense, can hit the open three, run the offense, and set up the play every time down the floor to make life easier for everyone.
The Magic need to find their Mike Conley.
If this front office wants defense, Paolo wants a point guard, and the team needs a combination of a versatile two-way big, all-around outside shooting off the ball and pull-up three-point shooting to draw defenses out of the paint, which potential incoming players fill these roles best?
Which player target can be relied on in a playoff series to make the game easier for Paolo, Franz, Suggs, and ultimately the entire Magic team going forward?
What does this team need most: committing major salary to a third star or plugging additional holes in the rotation by signing two starter-caliber players at half the cost?
Projecting a handful of Orlando Magic cap space scenarios:
$30 Million in cap space with Expiring contracts of Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Goga Bitadze, and Chuma Okeke coming off the books
$50 Million to spend if Decline Team Options on Joe Ingles and Mo Wagner
$65M-$70M to spend by Waiving Jonathan Isaac and Caleb Houstan
Some notes on the Orlando Magic’s off-season options:
• The Magic own all their own picks, Denver’s 1st next season, and a plethora of young players other teams may be interested in building around.
A trade for another team’s superstar would likely cost everything Orlando has collected, and likely only becomes possible if that star has demanded a trade, forcing their team’s hand to take the best offer available then and there. The Magic won’t part with any of Paolo, Franz, or Suggs, but if the team wants another team’s star, they’ll have to be ready to pay star prices.
The star’s current team will want as many unprotected first round picks as possible, usually asking for 3+, while the team acquiring the star will try to send as few firsts and as many protections as possible, normally 2-3 Top-4 protected picks.
The best realistic consolidation trade offer Orlando can make for another team’s superstar is meeting all the first-round pick demands while packaging some combination of the remaining rotation players between Jonathan Isaac, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, and Jett Howard, or involving Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Goga Bitadze, Chuma Okeke, or Caleb Houstan in a sign-and-trade. Isaac and Black seem to be the least likely to be traded, yet also probably have the most trade value as impact defenders and former 6th overall picks.
When you’re adding star talent to grow with the rest of the core, taking a step towards longterm contending can make losing a little depth worth the squeeze.
• A max deal for a free agent superstar like Paul George this summer would cost in the range of $50M to start and go up annually. Orlando could technically create this much cap room without trading anyone while keeping Jonathan Isaac despite losing depth in free agency.
Two lesser deals for free agents could result in more reasonable team-friendly contracts, with this front office usually able to agree to good deals below $20M and descending annually.
A successful summer for the Magic could look a lot like Malik Monk and Isaiah Hartenstein entering the fold, two starters joining the team without having to break the bank for a max. Orlando won’t be Isaiah’s only suitor though, as Hartenstein could reportedly see offers creep up to $80M-$100M in free agency. Still, if Orlando can create that $50M in space, then the teams would have enough room to make 2 offers starting at $20M-$25M per year without losing Jonathan Isaac.
Would Orlando be better off taking a swing for the fences by acquiring a max player now before their rising stars demand max deals, or maintaining a flexible roster with respectable rotation players who can be moved later if things don’t work out?
There is no reason to rush the team-building process, other than that pesky idea of fleeting championship windows.
The Magic are considered right there with Oklahoma City Thunder as having arguably the brightest future and most flexible roster of young talent in the league. Some would argue the Thunder were as ready as any team to contend for a championship this year, wanting the front office to push more chips onto the table.
Orlando’s front office has done so much right by being patient that the handful of questionable decisions are basically just the turnovers that come along with a superstar scoring creator like Jokic or Harden making 50 impossible decisions a game; perfection is impossible, continually striving to find the best shot for the team shows consistency.
The front office must weigh the never-ending risk/reward ratio of team-building:
how much future flexibility is the team ready to exchange to fix the hole’s holding back today’s roster from competing for a championship compared to how much the front office think those same holes on today’s roster will be addressed continual internal player development plan while maintaining that future flexiblity?
What makes this summer different than the last ten years?
Why would stars around the association suddenly see Orlando as a free agent destination after a decade of being the butt of the joke?
It all starts with Jeff Weltman and John Hammond building out a savvy, skilled roster and Jamahl Mosley defining a competitive hustle culture from his first day on the job.
Note: The following 55 names are not the top-55 overall free agents or the top-55 best players in the NBA, they are a list of 55 potentially available targets via trade and free agency who address what this Orlando Magic team needs. These players are separated below by tiers in order of how well they could be maximized in Orlando and impact winning going forward.
Trae Young
De’Aaron Fox
Tyrese Maxey
Paul George
LeBron James
Donovan Mitchell
LaMelo Ball
Mikal Bridges
Brandon Ingram
OG Anunoby
Darius Garland
Anfernee Simons
Jarrett Allen
Isaiah Hartenstein
Nic Claxton
James Harden
Devin Vassell
Jaden Ivey
Malik Monk
Collin Sexton
Moses Moody
Klay Thompson
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
D’Angelo Russell
Dejounte Murray
Chris Paul
Tyus Jones
Immanuel Quickley
De’Anthony Melton
Clint Capela
Jalen Smith
Daniel Theis
Malcolm Brogdon
Monte Morris
Kyle Lowry
Kris Dunn
Gary Payton
Torrey Craig
Jose Alvarado
Haywood Highsmith
Isaac Okoro
Naji Marshall
Corey Kispert
Malik Beasley
Eric Gordon
Aaron Wiggins
Isaiah Joe
Buddy Hield
Luke Kennard
Grayson Allen
Lonnie Walker
Aaron Holiday
Justin Holiday
Sam Hauser
Alec Burks
This Data Visualization Compares 55 2024 Off-Season Orlando Magic Player Targets by
Overall Two-way Impact via EPM
The farther RIGHT on the X-Axis, the more Offensive Impact (Offensive EPM)
The farther UP on the Y-Axis, the more Defensive Impact (Defensive EPM)
The brighter the circle’s color, the higher 3pt Efficiency (3P%)
The bigger the circle’s size, the higher 3pt+Close Shot Volume (Total 3PA + Total FGA<8FT)
Why are shots below 8ft included?
Orlando’s offense is built on paint-penetration, so this is a way to compare players who 1) shoot a lot of threes and 2) shoot a lot in the paint. Stats like Drives don’t account for shots, Shots At The Rim might not include Shots *Near* The Rim, whereas ‘FGA under 8ft’ should account for touch shots like floaters, runners, and rim-roll counter post-up moves around the rim without necessarily being at the rim; aka, all the shots taken by penetratating the paint.
Paul George, LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox are grouped together in the best two-way impact quadrant, showing elite offense while rating great defensively too.
Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young, Lamelo Ball, James Harden, Collin Sexton shine offensively by this impact metric, while rating below average defensively.
Isaiah Hartenstein and OG Anunoby jump off the page defensively via Dunks and Threes impact metric, with Hartenstein trailing only Jonathan Isaac for the highest Defensive EPM in the league.
Devin Vassell, De’Anthony Melton, and Jalen Smith pop out for their positive impact on both ends while comparing similarly to Jarrett Allen, Mikal Bridges and Brandon Ingram in overall impact.
Comparing Synergy Playtype Scoring Efficiency for 2024 Off-Season Orlando Magic Targets:
Handoffs
Due to the endless drive-and-kick nature of the Magic’s offense and strong screening from Paolo and Wendell, Orlando naturally creates countless Handoff opportunities in its current scheme, constantly looking to swing the ball to the opposite side of the floor into a secondary Handoff action after the primary action fails.
This high volume handoff machine could maximize the production of a DHO gunner available for hire like Malik Monk due to his skills and ideal role colliding with the downhill and 3pt shot opportunities that Orlando already creates.
Brandon Ingram shows he’s efficient in Handoffs on good volume, while Mikal Bridges and Tyrese Maxey stand out in this playtype for their high efficiency on high volume, just above Fox, Monk, and Vassell.
Pick-and-Roll Ball-Handlers (including passes)
Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey, Dejounte Murray, De’Aaron Fox, and James Harden have racked up the highest volume of P&Rs including passes this season, while 6-10th most were Darius Garland, D’Angelo Russell, Anfernee Simons, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyus Jones respectively, each initiating up over 800 pick-and-rolls.
Paul George, Trae Young, James Harden, Collin Sexton, Tyus Jones stand out in this group of targets for their efficient P&R shot creation on high volume, while Brandon Ingram, Malik Monk, LeBon James, and Lamelo Ball are not far behind.
Others are more efficient in the play-type, but on far lower volume. Could Tyus, Sexton, Lamelo, or any of these primo playmakers maintain their high efficiency if given a bigger opportunity?
Trae Young is the brightest star in this pick-and-roll galaxy, rating Top-2 in both volume and efficiency, revealing a reliable half-court shot creator who has proven he can find the team a good shot every time down the floor.
James Harden is similarly efficient on high volume, even if down compared to his prime years, where maybe a team could get similar consistent shot creation as Trae Young without having to send out a superstar haul in a trade to acquire him; Harden’s free to sign with any team he pleases this summer.
Pick-and-Roll Roll-Man
The straight-forward data visualization above shows Jarrett Allen was involved as the Roll-Man in the highest volume of any of these big men last season, and uber-efficient while scoring in that role.
Jalen Smith was highly efficient as well, but on a third of the volume; with more pick-and-pop rep opportunity, could Jalen maintain these impressive marks in 3pt and pick-and-roll efficiency?
Of this small group of potential targets, Capela and Claxton were nearly identically good in efficiency and volume, while Theis was similarly efficient with pick-and-pop threat on less volume, and Hartenstein finished as least efficient on lowest volume.
Whether a big is brought in to protect the rim or spread the floor, they’ll still need to find a role to contribute in on both ends to impact winning overall.
Tier 1 Superstars
Trae Young
De’Aaron Fox
Tyrese Maxey
Paul George
LeBron James
Donovan Mitchell
LaMelo Ball
Adding any of these offensive superstars would be a home run acquisition for the Magic. These are some of the top scorers in the league with elite shooting touch on finishes at the rim and from deep, able to launch tough pull up threes on high volume.
Technically Paul George can become an unrestricted free agent by declining his player option, which would make him the best available player on the free agent market unless LeBron opts out of his P.O. as well. Unless Orlando drafts Bronny, it seems unlikely that LeBron will leave Disney Land to take his talents to Disney World, especially with the overlapping strengths in he and Paolo’s game; but, hey, the Magic could use a cerebral point guard to run the show, and James hasn’t yet crossed Orlando off his “playing for all the teams that Shaq played for” bingo card.
George, however, enjoys the simple things in life; he likes fishing (an Orlando pasttime), he was happy in a smaller market like Oklahoma City; he willingly chose to play for the Clippers over a Lakers team with LeBron as a kid from L.A.; and, for all we know, Paul George could be a Disney Adult walking around in broad daylight.
George might be drawn to more proven stars in bigger cities, but the case to shine in the dimmer lights of Orlando’s sports media for the limelight of his career is clear. With 2 rising stars in hand, PG-13 wouldn’t be asked to carry the load as the only offensive option; if anything, he could gradually shift from the near All-NBA level top scoring option he is now to ultimately becoming a streaky secondary 3&D wing veteran down the line, as he ages out of his prime while Paolo and Franz age into theirs, with all three maintaining plus-defense for two-way winning impact for years.
Tyrese Maxey is an obvious top target as one of the cleanest shooters on and off the ball, clearly a rising star who would fill Orlando’s exact needs, but as a restricted free agent in Philadelphia, his 76ers team can match any offer Orlando makes, which is all but guaranteed to happen. If the Magic are willing to tie up their spending money in that offer for 3 days, missing out on other top options, they could force Phili’s hand to agree to the worst contract possible.
Star scorers Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, and Maxey bring elite finishing touch at the rim with the explosive first step burst to beat any defender standing in front of them, along with dynamic scoring and pull up 3pt shooting abilities. All possess some of the best downhill finishing, impossible shot-making, deep-range shooting skills Orlando needs.
Adding another team’s top nightly scoring option out onto the perimeter who can create consistent good looks for himself and others would instantly add the offensive infusion this team needs next to the core two-way impact of Paolo, Franz, Suggs, Isaac.
The team’s biggest need is someone who runs the offense while stretching the floor:
a 3pt sniper with deep range high volume shooting gravity, someone who can pull-up from three, space the floor off the ball, create offense from scratch, set up each teammate in their ideal position to score, and attack closeouts on a whim — a bonafide offensive superstar scoring creator who can draw two defenders out onto the perimeter and create advantages for downhill force teammates to attack gaps.
The pull up three draws doubles on pick and rolls and isos on the perimeter, creating driving lanes for paint-and-spray kickouts. The amount of attention the defense pays to stopping that player from shooting defines that player’s shooting gravity.
Paolo, Franz, and Suggs being downhill forces could mean that a deep-range sniper who can find them with the pass after pulling up defenders away from the paint could be the final piece of the puzzle to maximize this offensive attack.
Enter, Trae Young.
A one-man offense with a playstyle comparable to peak Harden or Nash, Trae Young elevates play-finishers around him. Dropping Trae onto this roster unlocks secondary scoring opportunities for everyone through his reliable half-court shot-creation, lethal floater-lob game, finishing at the rim, deep range shooting gravity, and elite feel always looking for the best shot for the team.
Trae can reliably run offense leading to a good shot for himself and others, or be a misdirection before a second action bends the defense in the same possession.
Trae’s consistent shot creation frees up everyone from Franz on closeout attacks and cuts to Paolo for short-rolls and postup mismatches. This allows the team’s efficient scoring playtypes like Franz P&R, Paolo Post-Ups, Suggs DHOs to be setup to score as the play-finishing portion of the offensive possession in the second wave of actions during a play, rather than relying on those sets to playmake and initiate for others.
Look at Clint Capela’s consistency in efficiency as a rim-protecting rim-roller with Harden in Houston and Young in Atlanta, posting maybe the most productive season of his career in his first year with the Hawks spamming PnRs with Trae, dropping 15 points, *14 boards (*1st in NBA), and 2 blocks per game, even tying a career-high in shot volume of 11 2PA/gm.
Trae is as aggressive as they come as a scorer, owning the main skill this Orlando offense needs most as a high-volume deep-range pull-up 3pt threat who draws attention and doubles out onto the perimeter, possessing the elite playmaking chops and rim-finishing FLOATA touch to beat nearly any defense thrown at him. Young has shown he can hit the C&S three when open in standstill, is elite in all sorts of offensive playtypes, and is as reliable as nearly any one-man offense in the NBA.
While Trae would take the ball out of other stars’ hands, those stars may see so many open shots as play-finishers playing off Trae that their box score production could be just as impressive, if not more efficient. No reason the offense can’t be divvied up between multiple star scorers.
Between his versatile defense, savant playmaking, impossible shot-making, deep range pull-up and handoff shooting gravity, and elite feel for the game, LaMelo Ball might be the cleanest fit of any player on this list when you add up everything the Magic need with everything Ball brings to the game.
It’s hard to find someone who does as many things that Orlando needs as LaMelo Ball: a Pull-Up 3pt sniper from deep on high volume who also drills threes moving off screens, fitting right into the heavy Handoff shot opportunities this Orlando already provides. A good defender, a savant transition passer, a natural point guard, a deep range pull-up sniper, an off-ball catch-and-shoot and movement three threat, fitting the roles Orlando needs filled on paper as well as any potential new player can.
LaMelo’s handoff and pick-and-roll game should open up the short role-playmaking opportunities for Paolo and some closeout attacking opportunities for Franz
Ball brings special timing, anticipation, ball skills, dribble skills, and passing flare usually only seen in NBA Street video games.
*They Reminisce Over You by Pete Rock and C.L. Smooth starts playing*
Lamelo checks off all the boxes for this Magic team: he’d please the coaches with nightly competitiveness; he’d make the front office happy with his versatile defense, playmaking chops, and team-first vision; he’d excite Paolo for finding a point guard with skillful flare who can run the offense and drill an open three; and he’d make the game easier for everyone on the team.
Bringing in the tough shot shooting gravity on and off the ball from any of these skilled stars would be a total game-changer for Orlando’s spacing and mismatch scoring versatility, making them that much more difficult to defend.
Tier 2 Stars
Mikal Bridges
Brandon Ingram
OG Anunoby
Darius Garland
Anfernee Simons
This could be the tier of players where Orlando finds the most value, from big wings who’d become one of three star scoring options to high-level scoring guards who could unlock Orlando’s offense with a combination of pull-up shooting, downhill vertical gravity, drive-and-kick playmaking, and foul-drawing to help conquer the goal of consistent, efficient halfcourt shot creation?
Darius Garland and Anfernee Simons are elite scorers who can heat up quickly and effectively; throw them into a top-3 scoring option role where all that’s asked of them is to spread the floor, create good shots for themselves and kickouts for others, and put the ball in the net, and the outgoing production could max out the box score stats while staying efficient on high volume.
Garland flashes an elite first step that helps him speed past his man on the perimeter to penetrate the paint for the finish, foul-draw, or kick-out, with Pull-Up shots that make him appear unguardable when their splashing through the net.
Simons possesses proven explosive north-south leaping ability to attack the rim with high-volume knockdown 3pt shooting to boot.
If Portland doesn’t see Simons as part of their longterm rebuilding plans, Anfernee could offer elite skills like pull-up shooting, pick-and-roll creation, and high volume downhill scoring his hometown team of Orlando needs, and he wouldn’t come at the asking price in a trade as high as the other stars listed above.
OG Anunoby is currently one of the best defenders in the league, and maybe the most impactful defensive wing alive at the moment. A skilled slasher, 3pt shooter, and scorer builds out an incredible two-way game. He’s unlikely to leave New York after fitting their culture so well, but OG technically has a player option that would make him completely free to sign with the team that he chooses. OG would instantly improve any roster, bolster frontcourt defense, and provide the two-way versatility to fit in any situation, especially if asked to defend, shoot, cut more than create.
Mikal Bridges was recently a defensive anchor from the wing, leading a top ranked defense to the Finals, finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making First-Team All-Defense in 2020, his last in Phoenix. In Brooklyn, he’s being asked to carry a first option scoring load, while other coaches gameplan for him as a #1 option, maybe leaving less energy for defense. In Orlando, Mikal could return to his ideal role of defense first and tough shot making from midrange and deep second, as a third star scorer and knockdown 3pt shooter who could draw doubles to open shots for others.
Brandon Ingram has been a tough shotmaker his whole career, and now he’s developed into an incredible playmaker to the point that he could be a legitimate point forward lead initator for this Magic squad if Orlando just wanted to play ginormous lineups with Ingram at point, Suggs guarding point of attack, Paolo and Franz on the wing and one of the complementary options at center. Against small-ball lineups, they could play Mikal/Ingram + Franz+Paolo as a versatile frontcourt together.
Acquiring a two-way versatile big wing star like Mikal Bridges or Brandon Ingram, OG Anunoby, LeBron James, or Paul George not only makes Orlando’s starting lineup gigantic at every position, but the lineup would be filled with dynamic skilled high-level defenders who all bring 3pt shooting, tough midrange shotmaking, and a range of playmaking creating shots for others.
Not to mention, a team having three stars who can score on tough shots from any level adds a degree of unguardability to an offense where doubling any one star inevitably leaves another one open.
What do defenses do when they have to guard three impossible shotmakers who can hit any shot, draw tons of fouls, defend multiple positions, make the right play for the team, and complement each other’s scoring?
While a point guard star paired with big play-finishers may be more complementary in traditional pick-and-roll heavy halfcourt shot-creation, combining three big wing stars’ scoring talent together could also make an offense as unguardable as any.
Trading buckets can work on any given night, but poses problems with consistency when asked to produce against the same team over an entire 7-game playoff series.
Is the scoring gravity from consistent shot creation through multiple big wing stars drawing doubles and creating open looks for each other the same as having a star scoring creator always looking to setup the best shot possible for the team while creating the best advantage possible for themselves or their teammate to score?
If Orlando wants to add a max player now while they still can, they must choose a single path to a third star: Do they need a scoring creator guard to set everyone up, a third tough shot-making big wing, or a defensive anchor to hold down the frontcourt?
Tier 3 - Play-finishing Defensive Anchors
Jarrett Allen
Isaiah Hartenstein
Nic Claxton
All these players are now or have been great defenders at some point in their career, all tough high-level two-way starters with all-defense upside/experience in right role.
No one thinks Donovan Mitchell is a more impactful defender than Jarrett Allen, yet the EPM metrics show Allen bringing more offensive impact than defense. While all-encompassing impact stats attempt to account for everything; they’re still not perfect.
How much does playing with skilled star guards in Garland and Mitchell help create easier looks for Allen at the rim?
How much does Allen’s lob threat open the floor for those guards?
How much does Allen’s rim-detterence affect opposing offenses; does Allen’s presence make perimeter defense easier for Mitchell to take chances for steals?
Jarrett Allen, Nic Claxton, and Isaiah Hartenstein are three of the best rim-protectors and impact big men rim-running around the court as strong play finishers. All three are more than capable of starting in this league on contending playoff teams, fitting the culture brewing in Orlando as instinctual paint-protectors who complement the team’s shot creators with a vertical gravity rim-rolling dynamic.
Hartenstein and Claxton are the two best big men on the free agent market, and two of the best defensive free agents available overall. Both will likely see huge offers from other teams ranging from rebuilding to contending, because defensive traits like rim-protection translates to any team. Orlando may have to win a bidding war to walk away with one of the prizes of free agency, and Orlando can create the space to do it.
While Allen is still under contract, rumors coming out of Cleveland have ranged from “everyone’s safe” to “everyone’s available”. If reports about the backcourt are true, then the team’s best player is discontent with some of his teammates, and the team has already quickly fired the coach that turned them around in J.B. Bickerstaff. If the Cavs are open for business, then literally all of their starters could be targets for Orlando, save for Evan Mobley who is likely the most untouchable.
Adding any of these strong bigs would improve an elite defense while matching The Magic Standard two-way team consistency of nightly effort, hustle, and tenacity.
Tier 4a - Starting Scoring Guards and 3&D Wings
James Harden
Devin Vassell
Jaden Ivey
Malik Monk
Collin Sexton
Moses Moody
Klay Thompson
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
These starting-caliber perimeter players could fill a myriad of roles for this Orlando offense from guards bringing individual scoring, perimeter shooting, team-first playmaking, to wings offering lengthy 3&D secondary scoring option capabilities.
James Harden can be a short-term bandaid for Orlando’s offense in one small swing without the team having to pay superstar prices; almost like bringing in 80% of what Trae Young brings without having to give up any picks or prospects on the roster.
Harden’s an unrestricted free agent, so no trade is necessary; he’s likely looking for one last big pay day, but it’s doubtful that will be a long max deal. Even if it is a short max, Orlando can afford a 1-2 year big deal that eats up the cap until it’s time to extend Paolo, Franz, and Suggs, especially if the result fills all the offensive half-court shot creation needs with a high-volume pull-up sniper.
Klay may be playing the back nine of his career after tough injuries, but he’s still Klay Thompson. The experience, pedigree, chemistry for the locker room is invaluable if Orlando can acquire him, and it’s not like he’s forgotten how to shoot.
Over the last three seasons, Klay shot the same 3P% as Gary Harris (40%) on TWICE the volume (10 3PA), + much higher 2P% and FGA as a more prioritized scoring option in Golden State. Thompson can still splash the rock at a high clip and defend big wings, something this halfcourt offense could have used with abundance last season.
Malik Monk has become a fan-favorite target for his clean fit in Orlando’s current offensive structure; his 3pt sniper DHO prowess and downhill explosiveness matches the shot opportunities this Magic offense already creates.
Monk, Sexton and Ivey possess lethal first step burst, explosion to the rim, with streaky 3pt range, filling multiple gaps in what Orlando is missing on offense. Any would be a clean fit and instant downhill 3pt spark that the backcourt could use.
The potential of adding Devin Vassell’s microwave scoring and tough shotmaking arsenal or Moses Moody’s up-and-coming 3&D wing play could develop into a lethal attack next to the Magic’s rising stars in the longterm.
Are Vassell or Moody available? Who knows. Their timelines and tough shotmaking skillsets with lengthy two-way potential that matches Orlando’s values, filling a needed role as another scoring option who can hold his own defensively.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope would fill the D&3 role rather cleanly if he were to replace Gary Harris on the wing. Orlando might still need to improve playmaking elsewhere, but as far as elite point-of-attack defenders who can knockdown the 3pt shot, few in the league are as proven as KCP, 2x NBA Champion with the Lakers and Nuggets.
Tier 4b - Good Fit On Paper Scorers, but Questionable Team Culture Fit
D’Angelo Russell
Dejounte Murray
2 Score-first, tough shot-making guards fit well on paper. Do they fit the culture of two-way team-first players that the Magic Standard style of play strives for?
D’Angelo Russell and Dejounte Murray have clear starter-level talent and would fill countless holes in this Magic offense. Why are they ranked so low?
Maybe it’s erratic decision-making, streaky shot-making, or lack of playmaking for others, but even with high-volume scoring on their side, and even though Dejounte was once a great defender in San Antonio, something feels off about the culture fit with these tough shot making guards in Orlando despite both filling needs in pull-up shooting, ISO scoring, and high volume shot creation in pick-and-rolls.
Will Orlando’s front office view D’Angelo Russell’s scoring impact as a big enough upgrade over Cole Anthony’s if Cole was given similar opportunity in starter’s minutes to run high-volume pick-and-rolls to be worth the extra salary Russell requires? Have Seattle natives Dejounte and Paolo cooled off their beef from over the summer enough so for Paolo to trust his late-game decision-making as a co-star?
If D’Angelo can’t defend at Coach Mosley’s Magic Standard, and Dejounte doesn’t quite orchestra the halfcourt offense for others as often as he looks for his own shot, does either guard fit the two-way team-first style that Jeff Weltman’s front office has traditionally targeted?
Both are talented high volume scorers with Russell able to operate an offense while bringing streaky shooting and Murray able to hit tough shots, score in ISO, and defend at an elite level at one point. There’s a reason they are on this list; the scoring talent, perimeter shooting, offensive shot creation are too good to ignore.
Sometimes talent outweighs fit; sometimes good fit outperforms talent.
Tier-5 All-Around Role Player Point Guards
Chris Paul
De’Anthony Melton
Immanuel Quickley
Tyus Jones
Malcolm Brogdon
Monte Morris
Kyle Lowry
Kris Dunn
Point guards who can spot-start with a lineup of play-finishers, make team-first decisions consistently with the ball, and fill a shooting need off the ball in standstill, who ideally hold their own defensively and help lead vocally in halfcourt on both sides of the ball, can help any team find reliable good looks.
The year is 2047. Chris Paul is still hostage-dribbling his man onto his hip behind him, putting him “in jail” as he fakes a dribble towards the dropping big man defenders before quickly rising and firing a fadeaway elbow jump shot without hesitation. He drills it.
Paul has proven through multiple seasons to be overqualified to run second units, still a natural point guard and vocal defensive leader who talks refs heads off and used to be a pest at POA. It wasn’t too long ago that Chris Paul was a Top-10 MVP vote-getter in Phoenix. Chris can still knock down the open catch-and-shoot three, snake-dribble into a fading midrange jumper, and run pick-and-roll til the cats come home to create a good shot for the team. If anyone can set up Orlando’s stars to score, make sure everybody eats, run the offense on a night to night basis, hit the open three and do all the classic point guard things, it’s the point god himself.
As far as potential Magic targets for, Tyus Jones is a clear fan-favorite table-setter.
Noted leader in Assist to Turnover ratio for *five* straight seasons, Tyus has been running good offense since he stepped into the league, making safe team-first decisions since day one. Monte Morris is usually in contention in the same stat.
Jones is a good shooter from deep who makes good reads, runs the offense, and gives effort defensively despite being udnersized, filling just about every hole in Orlando’s backcourt as a role player, ideally creating a sum-of-its-parts effect that maximizes his impact in this specific starting unit next to Suggs, Franz, Paolo, and Play-Finishing Rim-Protecting Center To Be Named Later. (Wendell’s spot to lose)
Melton is still an elite defender who could shine next to so much talent on that end of the floor, a good decision-maker who’s efficient as a secondary option pick-and-roll creator who can run some offense at times. More of a defensive playmaker than a traditional point guard, but can knock down the open three and fill some team holes.
Quickley is another player that improves the more opportunity he sees, thriving in Toronto after the Knicks trade, able to get a bucket in a hurry and create looks for others while splashing open threes and holding his own defensively.
Brogdon is relatively good at everything Orlando needs, a plug-and-play former star turned role playing point guard who can drill the open three, defend 1-3, make team-first reads as a cerebral hoops mind and good locker room guy for any team.
While getting up there in age, Kyle Lowry can still run an efficient offense and hold his own. Kris Dunn similarly brings all-around point guard play while defending hard.
Tier 6 - The Two-Way Rim-Rollers
Clint Capela
Jalen Smith
Daniel Theis
Did somebody order a Reliable Rim-Running Rim-Protecting Vertical Lob Threat Vet?
While about four years older than the rim-protectors listed earlier, Clint Capela would bring a lesser yet similar two-way impact in style filling a starting role at center providing this team a rim-rolling rim-protecting vertical lob threat option in P&R.
While Isaac brings better rim-protection and Wendell offers a more versatile all-around offensive attack, and the other three rim-protecters listed a few tiers above are roughly four years younger, Capela is in his prime and has proven to be a consistent rim-runner, still rating positive in overall impact via EPM, both offensive and defensive impact, and pick-and-roll roll man efficiency by points per possession.
Jalen Smith and Daniel Theis provide efficient P&R Roll-Man who spread the floor for the pick-and-pop three. Theis would bring Orlando one step closer to just being the NBA’s German national team, with experience playing with the Wagner bros overseas.
Tier 7a - One-Way Skilled Defenders
Gary Payton
Torrey Craig
Jose Alvarado
Isaac Okoro
Haywood Highsmith
Naji Marshall
These players are all Coaches’ favorites, because they play with energy on defense, all possessing great feel for helping their team get stops. They certainly match the energy sought by Orlando’s coaching staff and front office.
While they all are premier defenders, the offense varies from nonexistant to work in progress; yet at the very least, each of these players can make an open three-pointer, at surprisingly decent rates. As long as they show no hesitation to launch from deep, those looks should be wide open, and their solid efficiency should stay steady.
Alvarado, Payton, or Craig next to Suggs and Franz would give Orlando arguably the most intense ball pressure in the league; adding Highsmith or Marshall could add an intriguing dynamic defensive wing with developable 3pt ball skills to the frontcourt.
Isaac Okoro adds a smart defender to the wing versatile enough to switch multiple perimeter positions, with a streaky outside shot and a little wiggle to score on cuts.
Any of these names could enter the rotation as lockdown defenders, with the skills to produce from deep given the opportunity available for shooters.
Tier 7b - One-Way Floor-Spacing Shooters
Corey Kispert
Malik Beasley
Eric Gordon
Aaron Wiggins
Isaiah Joe
Buddy Hield
Luke Kennard
Grayson Allen
Sam Hauser
Lonnie Walker
Aaron Holiday
Justin Holiday
Alec Burks
Orlando needs shooting any way they can get it. One step in that direction would be investing a shooting specialist, the elite of the elite at shooting, even if it’s mainly off the ball to knock down the wide open catch-and-shoot looks generated off the paint-and-spray style of Paolo, Franz, Suggs, and Cole.
All of these names are good to great shooters with high efficiency on high-volume, most capable of shooting from both standstill and in motion, all of whom can walk in the gym and go 6/9 from deep on any given Tuesday night.
The Thunder draft good basketball players, and even though Wiggins and Joe don’t see much starter opportunity, that’s more due to OKC’s depth of talent limiting minutes, as both show tantalizing potential as shooters and Wiggins showing off a little wiggle athletically to create his own shots at times.
Kispert has seperated himself recently as a longterm prospect with a skilled shot profile; Buddy has all-time great catch-and-shoot numbers.
Beasley, Burks, Allen, and Kennard knocked down a high volume of threes at a super high clip, proven to be elite catch-and-shoot threats, if nothing more.
Every player here spaces the floor with knockdown 3pt shooting, and some like Eric Gordon and Lonnie Walker have enough body control and dribble skills to create a look for themselves, to go get a bucket.
Aaron and Justin Holiday are tough guards who can score a little and shoot from deep.
Sam Hauser posted a positive impact metric on both sides of the ball, fitting well in team defensive rotations for Boston while spreading the floor from deep, showing promises as a two-way role player who can already shoot off ball.
For those counting at home, that’s 55 players the Orlando Magic could realistically target via trade or in free agency this summer, all holding some remote chance of actually happening given Orlando’s team-building situation rising fast.
Now we wait for the Magic to simply run it back instead, content with the progress they’ve made, happy to re-sign Gary Harris, Goga Bitadze, and Markelle Fultz to team-friendly deals, keep the 18th overall pick, and look to improve slightly on the margins.
Patience for player develeopment has been as key as anything to this rebuild; this front office has no problem growing gradually while maintaining future flexibility.
5 Somewhat Realistic Orlando Magic Off-Season Scenarios This Summer:
• Trade for Tyus Jones and Corey Kispert.
Bolstering the backcourt with off-ball shooting for floor-spacing and playmaking for halfcourt decision-making. Give up relatively little for two role players, keep building around the young rotation, don’t rush anything while plugging gaps along the way to building a sustainable playoff-appearing squad.
• Sign two free agents to fill out starting lineup
Bring in 1) Malik Monk and Isaiah Hartenstein
or 2) De’Anthony Melton and Nic Claxton in Free Agency.
Orlando can create space for $20M/year offers for two starting-caliber plug-and-play options who fill roster holes between Monk’s off-ball 3pt gravity, handoff scoring, north-south rim-attacks and Isaiah’s rim-protection, rebounding, and post-up defense.
This outcome immediately improves Orlando’s starting lineup on both ends, doesn’t cost any players in a trade, and doesn’t hamper future moves as both players would be on fair, movable deals that likely retain value through the length of their contract.
Could Orlandos’ offense provide opportunity for Monk to achieve 25+ PPG efficiently in an ideal role that maximizes his Handoff skills as a 3pt sniper and north-south athletic sparkplug, where Malik produces like an offensive star without the Magic having to pay superstar prices? Could Hartenstein become the consistent defensive anchor play-finisher this team seems to still be searching for, even with similarly skilled two-way bigs fighting for playing time on the roster?
Orlando adding Melton and Claxton would essentially be a Top-5 defense adding two all-defensive caliber players to the rotation without giving up anything but cap space.
De’Anthony Melton and Nic Claxton could be viewed as underrated for being elite defenders who have bounced around different situations. Melton has been an efficient option in P&R in Memphis and Phili, while Claxton has been one of the best rim-protectors in the league for years.
Maybe a change of scenery to thrive as play-finishers like Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington saw in Dallas would help Claxton thrive off the shot-creation of Paolo and Franz. Maybe more opportunity to playmake, shoot, and score could elevate Melton’s impact on top of his ready-made POA defense.
• Make the biggest trade offer possible to grab a possible third star like Anfernee Simons, Mikal Bridges, or Brandon Ingram while they’re available.
Orlando’s roster is reaching a tipping point of too many cooks in the kitchen. Depth is rarely bad, but eventually prospects need opportunity, trust, and playing time to get developmental reps, and usually have the desire to play bigger roles as time goes on.
Orlando’s prospects and picks have value around the league now, but “potential” changes quickly when it comes to trade value. A former lottery pick could be viewed as valuable as a future lottery pick, until that first prospect seems to max out their production as a sixth man, or falls out of the rotation entirely. The team being viewed as a contender would make future picks lose value compared to other teams.
With as much cap space as any team in the league, as bright a future as any team in the league, and as many young prospects as any in the league, the timing could not be better to push some chips in the table and go all-in on the belief that what you’re building is ready for the next step, the last push, the final frontier of contending for championships for the foreseeable future. Bring in a third star who can score, shoot, and run some offense, ideally a 3pt sniper who draws attention away from the paint.
• Sign Paul George to the full max. Orlando has the money to sign a full max while keeping close to everyone on their roster, not needing to extend their in-house stars until down the road. The cap’s always climbing, and George’s game should age as smoothly as it started. Adding a high-impact two-way star to a Top-5 Defense with 2 Star Scorers is a recipe to immediately contend by keeping their depth and talent.
Losing future flexibility is the cost of acquiring superstar talent today, but the only goal of keeping that flexibility would be to eventually acquire a different star down the road. Will there really be a better player available in a time where Orlando has an even more flexible situation than this? Will there really not be enough flexibility as the cap continually rises astronomically to sign a max player? Gordon Hayward missed a season due to career-altering injury and has still been traded twice since being the prized free agent in Boston, while the Celtics made two Finals appearances without him since bringing him in.
• Trade for Trae Young and Clint Capela.
Trae might have to ask out for this to happen, but the future of Atlanta’s backcourt is reportedly up in the air, as the team is rumored to be open to keeping Dejounte over Trae. Orlando can load the Hawks up with young talent and picks to compete in the short-term and rebuild on the fly around young prospects Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu without having to totally bottom out in a market that likes to stay relevant.
Orlando lands their one-man offense quick fix and a rim-roller veteran with proven pick-and-roll chemistry to provide sustainable half-court shot-creation when the game is coming down to the wire. Trae’s elite pull-up shooting in pick-and-roll alone could be everything this offense needs to draw attention away from Paolo and Franz to unleash their versatile downhill scoring abilities.
One goal of building a good basketball team is finding impactful players who play for the team first and bring positive winning impact to both ends of the floor.
A good basketball team simply needs to do two things well: be good at offense and be good at defense; teams good enough to contend for an NBA championship usually have the roster versatility to be able to handle any matchup thrown at them.
Every champion since Shaq and Kobe has rated Top-12 in both offense and defense; elite defenses with super team offenses win a lot of basketball games by getting stops consistently and getting good shots every possession.
Unpredictable scorers who can still score consistently in the playoffs are the toughest players for defenses to guard; a team featuring three star scorers can make it nearly impossible, since doubling one star means leaving a different star wide open.
This summer, The Magic could add a shot-creating turbo engine to supercharge this team’s offensive attack without giving up any stars of their own; they could even maintain their Top-5 defense while doing so.
This Top-5 defense is built around the impact of individual game-changers at point-of-attack (Suggs), on the wing (Franz), and at the rim (Isaac, Goga) with a roster of smart, energetic plus-defenders filling out the rotation.
Orlando’s resilient hustle culture was coined as ‘The Magic Standard’ by Jamahl Mosley, the Magic’s Head Coach who sets the tone with positive energy preaching daily development that breeds a competitive style of play with resolve throughout the rotation to compete through the final whistle.
Flanking a shooting star with this roster flowing with the two-way team-first energy sought out by Jeff Weltman’s, John Hammond’s, and Anthony Parker’s front office could unlock the ultimate Net Rating killer sleeping giant hibernating in Orlando.
Data: Dunks and Threes, Synergy Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, PBP Stats
Analytics & Data Visualization from @BeyondTheRK