Why Are NBA Rookies Better Defenders Than Ever?
How do we best measure individual NBA defense? Who are the Best Rookie Defenders by position? What should the criteria be for awards voting?
He’s energetic. elated. electric.
His college coach compares him to Magic Johnson mixed with Scottie Pippen.
He’s also your 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Scottie Barnes sprinted onto the scene with a smile.
It’s not every day that a 6’9” two-way force of nature surprises talent evaluators every step of the way.
A transition playmaker and twitchy big wing defender who drops dimes like rhymes shouldn’t sneak up on anyone, but Scottie Barnes being this impactful to his team’s success this early into his rookie season, along with his sudden capability to pull-up off the dribble, amazed even his biggest supporters.
The ultimate stamp of approval? Earvin sees the Magic in Scottie’s game!
This ROY result came as a surprise in some circles. Scottie was filling up box scores with thunderous highlights throughout the season, yet Evan Mobley was a consistently great defensive anchor from the first day he suited up in the pros.
Barnes bounces around with bravado. Mobley hums along with humility.
Scottie will block the shot, run the floor, and throw down the fly-by jam. Evan is everywhere at once, covering ground like a lion chasing a gazelle, grinding out stops with incredible understanding of the defensive end of the floor.
Mobley methodically breaks you down with laser focus. Barnes comes at you like he’s riding a shark with frickin' laser beams attached to its head.
If you like basketball, you can’t dislike Evan Mobley’s game. If watching Scottie Barnes do anything for five seconds doesn’t hype you up, you don’t have a pulse.
On the one hand, Scottie Barnes didn’t pull up at Florida State. While he shot 50% from the field, his shooting splits left much to be desired. On the other hand, Barnes was a 6’9” positionless defender and skilled passing forward who could handle the ball coast-to-coast, a ready-made north-south force for the modern game. These bankable attributes should translate directly, creating a really good two-way basketball prospect, even if he never took a jump shot at the next level. The floor is the roof.
With that much feel for the game, the proven ability to dribble and pass at that height, one could extend a range of realistic development to round out the ball-skills with an improved jump shot off the right combination of work ethic and opportunity. Add those developable ball-skills to the draft prospect profile of a 6’9” versatile wing defender and transition playmaker, and suddenly a two-way NBA Star is born.
Often looking to drive and kick wraparound passes around entire defenses, Scottie rarely looked to shoot himself at FSU. Scottie Barnes did however flash his shooting touch on multiple occasions. Scottie drilled deep C&S jumpers and came up in the clutch with multiple tough finishes at the rim, winning one game with a contested euro-step FLOATA and sending another to overtime with the coast-to-coast up-and-under reverse layup, detailed in this thread:
NBA Award voting criteria is abstract at best, and nonsensical at worst. The NBA leaves voting rules hazy on purpose, since the league’s media news cycle feeds off award drama like a parasite hooked on daytime soap operas. We all know ESPN wouldn’t have anything to talk about without debating who the MVP is two weeks into the season, other than, y’know, the actual basketball on the court.
What defines MVP? That answer is different for every voter, depending on what factors they feel like prioritizing.
Should the standalone best player be crowned MVP every year? Is the best player the most productive player in the regular season, the best player on the best team, or the first player you’d pick to win one hypothetical game against an alien invasion? How do you rationalize roster context when defining “value”? How much should preseason storylines, group think bias, and player career reputation affect the award race?
When basketball greatness is acknowledged, everybody wins. When snubs occur because of group-think projection, resentment can arrive.
The NBA 75 list revealed that even the most involved basketball minds have trouble contextualizing greatness from era to era. Multiple voters assumed Anthony Davis would one day have the career resume that Dwight Howard already has, prematurely crowning AD after the recency bias of one incredible championship run, while snubbing Dwight’s eight straight years of First-Team All-NBA, five years of All-Defensive teams, and three straight DPOYs off the list entirely.
What purpose does this serve, other than devaluing Dwight Howard’s greatness to future generations who weren’t there to watch the tape?
From the all-time player debates in the barbershop to the eternal bragging rights on the court, the MVP still matters for all sort of reasons, yet legends like Shaq and Kobe only have one a piece. Hoop legends like Tracy McGrady, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard, Elgin Baylor, George Gervin, and Jerry West never ended up with one.
When Russell Westbrook won his MVP, some metrics showed James Harden or Kawhi Leonard having more impactful seasons that year. But when people look back on that 2016-17 season, the first thing they’ll remember is Westbrook doing the unthinkable, averaging a triple double for the first time since “Big O” Oscar Robertson, modernized with the 30 PPG mark for good measure.
What’s more important for the awards to recognize twenty years from now: rewarding the best player in the league that season or capturing the history of the moment?
The same questions are asked of every award, to varying degrees. Is the Rookie of the Year award about praising the best rookie or the most memorable rookie season?
This 2022 season could have gone the 1995 route, where Grant Hill and Jason Kidd shared ROY. Looking back, no one has an issue with two basketball phenoms receiving the honor, as it checked off both boxes of rewarding the best player and retaining the most memorable memories of that season.
Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes are both rookies of the year to their teams, as Cade Cunningham and Franz Wagner are to theirs. All deserve degrees of consideration.
Franz Wagner led all rookies in total points and free throws made, while Evan Mobley led rookies in blocks, boards, and free throws attempted. Cade Cunningham racked up the most assists and shots taken, while Scottie Barnes made more shots than anybody else. Herb Jones collected all of the steals while Jalen Green led all rookies in three point makes and attempts.
Here’s Top-5 Rookies by PPG. Does anyone’s traditional box score averages stand out?
Mobley scored 15 points, grabbed 8 boards, and hit 2.5 stocks per game,
with a 1.3 AST/TO ratio. (2.5a/1.9to)
Barnes scored 15 points, grabbed 8 boards, and hit 1.8 stocks per game,
with a 1.9 AST/TO ratio. (3.5a/1.8to)
Evan’s shooting line was 51-25-66. Scottie shot a slightly more respectable 49-30-74.
Dunks and Threes features estimated plus-minus (EPM), one of the better public impact metrics available, especially for crediting defenders. Mobley’s defensive EPM (+2.3) ranks 1st among rookies and T-19th in the entire NBA. Jalen Suggs (+2.2) is not far behind, ranking 2nd among rookies and T-25th around the association. Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado (+1.9) show up next, T-3rd among rookies and T-39th in the NBA.
According to overall EPM, Mobley’s offense brings his rate down to +1.0, ranking 4th among rookies and T-108 overall. The rookies with the highest effective plus-minus are doing so in a smaller sample size; Jose Alvarado (+1.5) ranks T-83rd in the NBA in 834 minutes and Day’Ron Sharpe (+1.3) ranks T-91st in the NBA in just 391 minutes. Franz Wagner (+1.2) ranks 3rd among rookies and T-99th overall. Scottie Barnes’ data looks odd, as he’s literally a +0 EPM on both ends in 2617 minutes, suggesting he’s at least not hurting his team on either side of the ball.
By most measures, Mobley might have been the most impactful basketball player of any rookie for the entire season from start to finish. Maybe Scottie Barnes just captured more hearts and minds of the masses after exploding into fans’ living rooms with loud plays and fast-break flushes, running around the court with the grin and gumption of your goofy friend who just drank too much mountain dew baja blast.
When basketball fans in 2042 are looking back on this season, hosting all-time hooper debates in virtual reality barbershops getting virtual haircuts for their virtual avatars, will they be looking back at 2022 as the start of a generational career from “Slim Duncan” Evan Mobley, or will the delightful memories of Scottie Barnes swatting shots, slamming jams, and shooting smiles arrive first?
Why were so many rookie players positive on defense in their first year? Are rookies understanding the game better than ever, walking into the league with more feel for the game than before? Does the insurgency of younger players combined with modern spacing and handcheck rules create a faster game where athletic mobility on the defensive end is more valuable than ever?
Why are NBA rookies better defenders than ever?
Individual ability to rotate, closeout, switch, and protect the rim are still needed, yet the players with the portability to do it all are most coveted. Would a team rather roll out the league’s best shot-blocker who becomes a liability on the perimeter down the stretch, or a player who’s 80% the shot-blocker, great at switching onto the perimeter, with few to no other holes in their game, making them helpful defenders and fully available at all times? Regular season warriors may prefer beating bad teams with the former, but once the playoffs roll around, the latter doesn’t get run off the floor.
Good to great defenders have filled up recent draft classes. In the moment, this class feels special, with multiple prospects who could end up as DPOY-level defenders (Mobley, Herb) and even more who could potentially make an All-Defensive team one day. (Scottie, Davion, Suggs, Franz, Cade, etc.)
When looking back, however, that statement tends to be true of every class in at least the past six seasons.
2016 featured B.Simmons, J.Brown, Ingram, Siakam, Poeltl, and Brogdon.
2017 brought Tatum, Adebayo, Isaac, Ball, Anunoby, and Allen.
2018 gave us JJJ, Mikal B., RobWill, Shai, Vanderbilt, Bamba, Melton, and Wendell.
2019 included Thybulle, D.Hunter, P.J., Clarke, and Dort.
2020 had Okongwu, PatWill, Vassell, Bane, Okoro, Haliburton, and Beef Stew.
As the league trends slightly younger and long-tenured veteran role players lose out roster spots to prospects with “potential”, one could see a connection between early twenty-year olds filling up the league and rookie teenagers being more capable defenders in Year 1, as the gap between youthful athleticism and experienced maturity slowly shrinks.
Fluctuating between 26 years old and 28 years old since 1963, last season’s League-Wide Average Age of NBA Players tied the lowest mark since 1983. (26.1) Mostly trending upwards from 1983-99, the league-average peaked at 27.9 in 1999, and has been slightly decreasing nearly every year since.
Since 1963, All-NBA First Team Average Age has surpassed 30 years old once, in 1997 with Michael Jordan (34), Tim Hardaway (30), Grant Hill (24), Karl Malone (33), and Hakeem Olajuwon (34), while falling to 26 years old or below six times.
All-Rookie First Team Average Age has never been greater than 23 years old, yet has fallen to 21 years old or below eight times since 1997, when Allen Iverson (212), Stephon Marbury (20), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (20), Antoine Walker (20), and Marcus Camby (22) made the team.
The above visualization does not include this season, as All-Rookie teams and All-NBA teams have not yet been revealed. However, Evan Mobley (20), Scottie Barnes (20), Franz Wagner (20), Cade Cunningham (20), and Jalen Green (20) making All-Rookie First team would mark the ninth time the team’s average age fell below 21 years old.
Many defensive stats should be viewed with a grain of salt. The most popular and recognizable ones don’t neccesarily equate to effective defense as much as they do defensive highlights.
Plus-minus impact metrics are improving, but can still be spotty on the defensive end. Steals are well known and easy to record, but the lack of correlation between steals and defensive success, along with an obscurity between what constitutes a smartly timed steal compared to a successful reckless gamble, holds back the stat from equaling good defense. The haziness in what constitutes a shot contest, where the lack of shot could be a sign of deterrence itself, reveals more uncertainty in measuring defensive effectiveness.
Some useful tools exist to make better decisions for comparing defenders. Hustle stats are one way to measure effort, revealing a base level of defensive activity.
How many deflections does a defender rack up per game? How does the opponent’s scoring efficiency change when a certain defender is contesting their shot?
Here’s a league landscape look at the NBA’s biggest hustlers. These stats count over the course of a season against the average NBA opponent, including a lot of bad teams. We shouldn’t use these stats to declare someone the defacto “best” defender, but we can guage a baseline of defensive actions that lead to stops, such as which players spend a lot of time trying to protect the rim via shot contests, which players combine length and effort for deflections, and roughly how much an opponents’ scoring efficiency drops when guarded by certain individual defenders via dFG%.
The bigger the head, the better the defender… in this visualization, at least. The lowest dFG% among this group includes Robert Williams, Draymond Green, Matisse Thybulle, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Rudy Gobert.
Strong perimeter defenders Alex Caruso, Jalen Suggs, and Eric Bledsoe averaged over 9+ dFGA per game, yet did not meet the 500 dFGA threshold for this visualization.
Big men who stand tall at the rim tend to rack up shot contests. Every team plays a center, so which ones stand out? Jakob Poeltl, Rudy Gobert, Evan Mobley, Nikola Jokic, and Robert Williams contest at least 11+ shots per game, via the NBA’s site.
Perimeter players tend to rack up more steals, especially high-volume gamblers. Deflections record all the times a ball gets knocked away or a pass gets broken up, including plays that don’t result in a turnover. As mega deflectors, Dejounte Murray, Fred VanVleet, Matisse Thybulle, Gary Trent Jr. stand above the rest, while Alex Caruso would be with this group if he met the minimum 500 defended shots.
Here’s how the rookies compare in hustle stats, with a minimum of 9+ dFGA per game to allow for the inclusion of Jalen Suggs, who finished with 485 deflections.
Top-5 Deflections Per Game among Rookies:
Herbert Jones, Jalen Suggs, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Franz Wagner
Top-5 Contested Shots Per Game among Rookies:
Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, Cade Cunningham, Herb Jones
Evan Mobley roams around the floor like a free safety, ready to help at a moment’s notice, excelling when paired with Jarrett Allen handling big bruisers down low. Herb Jones is everywhere at once, racking up over three deflections per game with a motor that never shuts off. Scottie Barnes and Cade Cunningham are doing a little of both, while Davion Mitchell, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Chris Duarte are all keeping opposing scorers to 44% dFG% or lower.
Like any defensive metric, hustle stats don’t account for everything that happens in a given possession. Scheme, matchup, opportunity don’t factor into the formula. In fact, hustle stats have no formula. They don’t show how a defender knew the other team’s playbook and used that feel for the game to make a play, nor why a steal happened when the defender reads and reacts to force the turnover; the only aspect that’s recorded is the result, the what that happened on the hardwood. The steal. The block. The charge.
That’s where the film steps in. The data shows what happened, while the film reveals how and why it happened. Eye test and data science are two vital tools for scouting basketball players on the court, while the loosely-defined term “intel” covers the rest of the behind-the-scenes research that goes into people recieving multi-million dollar contracts from multi-billion dollar teams.
The best defenses are the ones that get stops, the ones that make life on the court harder than normal for opponents. How many possessions per game does a defense get a stop through a forced turnover or defensive rebound off a missed shot? How many possessions is any given player on the floor for those stops? How do we divvy up credit for those stops, through plus-minus or actions that generally lead to stops?
Stops per possession could be seen as the inverse to points per possession, or as a progression of how defense is currently measured. Defensive Rating is the average score a defense gives up based on points per one hundred possessions, while the average 48-minute basketball game happens to last around one hundred possessions.
Going one micro step further, offensive efficiency is measured by points per possession (PPP), where 1.0 PPP is a good offensive possession. So there’s usually 100 possessions in the average NBA basketball game, where a good offensive possession is worth roughly 1 point. See, maths can be fun!
Following this logic, shouldn’t defensive efficiency then be measured in Stops Creation, where a defense “scores” by stopping the opposing team’s offense from scoring, where a good defensive possession is theoretically worth negative (-)1 PPP?
How do we credit the creation of stops down to a player level? In theory, that player would be on the floor for more stops per game or per possession than others, but that might not be enough to differentiate between sound defensive lineups and impactful individual defenders.
Hustle stats may not directly lead to stops, but they could be indicators of effort. Deflections can lead to turnovers and contested shots can lead to defensive rebounds. When a shot is contested or a ball is deflected, stops can follow. Is this correlation without causation?
Can we use the number of possessions a player was on the floor when a deflection lead to a turnover or when a shot contest lead to a defensive board to project stops per possession, creating a projectable defender stat based on individual effort?
Cleaning the Glass has a ton of great tools for in-depth NBA scouting. Here’s a list of all the younger players who rank above the league’s 80th percentile this season in TOV% or OPP ORB%, filtered for under 25 years old with 1000 minutes played.
( % of opponent’s possessions ending in a turnover with a player ON the floor and % of opponent’s misses that opponents rebound with a player ON the floor, via Cleaning The Glass )
Rookie Italicized/Bold
Turnover Percentile (TOV%)
97th Matisse Thybulle (3.1)
96th Lonzo Ball (3.1)
93rd Naz Reid (2.4)
91st Obi Toppin (2.1)
89th Jaxson Hayes (2)
89th Davion Mitchell (1.9)
88th Alperen Sengun (1.9)
88th Chuma Okeke (1.9)
86th De'Anthony Melton (1.8)
84th Deni Avdija (1.6)
83rd OG Anunoby (1.5)
82nd Josh Christopher (1.5)
82nd Devin Vassell (1.5)
Opponent Offensive Rebound Percentile (OPP ORB% )
92nd Bam Adebayo (-3.6)
91st Aleksej Pokusevski (-3.5)
89th Wendell Carter (-3.2)
88th Ivica Zubac (-3.2)
88th Jayson Tatum (-3.1)
87th Talen Horton-Tucker (-3.1)
87th Jordan Poole (-3)
86th Isaiah Stewart (-3)
86th Isaac Okoro (-3)
82nd Herbert Jones (-2.6)
81st Anfernee Simons (-2.5)
81st Franz Wagner (-2.4)
Good defenses feature players who not only guard their own position well, but a backcourt that holds their own in post-up defense and a frontcourt that switches out onto speedsters on the perimeter. A defense is at its best when everyone trusts the premise that once they leave their man open to help, that the next defender will be on a string to help cover the next open man.
Help-side rim-protectors must dance the line between leaving the corner shooter open and putting a clamp on the cup. Big man anchors should stand strong against big brutes on the block, be sound in drop coverage, and be more mobile than ever.
POA (on-ball) defenders are asked to stop the best bucket-getters on an island, then navigate a screen in P&R defense, where they might have to switch, blitz(trap), or fight through the pick. Off-ball wings have to chase shooters around screens who keep defenses honest with conditioning and gravity.
Offenses are stuck in a drive-and-kick time loop, endlessly driving into things like they’re playing Forza Horizon, and defenses can no longer rely on funneling everything into a single rim-protector, at least when the stakes matter most.
Once the POA breaks down, the closest rim-protector should prepare to help; after surviving the first surge, defenses need a third defender closing out on the outside shooter, with another rim-protector prepared to handle the next drive to the cup. This rotation could last for three, four, five drives in a row, just in one play!
Everyone shares a responsibility to protect the rim, rebound, and contest kickouts. Modern defenses must prepare for endless closeouts, where enduring multiple waves of attack becomes just as important as breaking the first option tidal wave.
Without further adieu…
The 2022 Rookie Defender Rankings
from @BeyondTheRK and Mark Schindler @MG_Schindler
Top-3 Guard Rookie Defenders
from @BeyondTheRK:
1. Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings
2. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
3. Jose Alvarado, New Orleans Pelicans
(HM: Cade Cunningham, Chris Duarte)
from Mark Schindler:
1. Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings
2. Quentin Grimes, New York Knicks
3. Jose Alvarado, New Orleans Pelicans
(HM: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs)
Davion Mitchell’s lockdown defense is powerful. The “Off Night” nickname is beyond deserved. One of the best POA defenders in the league sits in Sacramento as a rookie.
Jose Alvarado is the newest pest on the block. Grand Theft Alvarado’s wait-in-the-corner-for-the-inbound-steal move has earned national attention. Jose went from undrafted last summer to hounding Chris Paul in playoff games mere months later.
Jalen Suggs has shown the strength to stick with bigger players in the post, the speed to stay tight with guards on the perimeter, and the accleration to thrive in transition off turnovers. Cade Cunningham is staying true to the hype with the versatility to guard multiple positions and good feel for the game on both ends.
Top-3 Wing Rookie Defenders
from @BeyondTheRK:
1. Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
2. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
3. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
(HM: Ayo Dosunmo, Chicago Bulls)
from Mark Schindler:
1. Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
2. Ayo Dosunmo, Chicago Bulls
3. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
(HM: Ziaire Williams, Memphis Grizzlies)
The Pelicans season ended days ago, yet Herb Jones’ feet havn’t stopped choppin’. Herb’s probably off somewhere training for next season, guarding a roomba in some hotel room to best prepare for unpredictabile movement. Franz Wagner stays in the right position, breaking up passing lanes with well-timed anticipation. Ayo Dosunmo has done a standup job filling the void as one of the only healthy, positive defenders in Chicago’s backcourt with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso missing time to injury.
Scottie Barnes’s modern versatility as a big wing allows him to shift between guarding the perimeter and playing help defense. Barnes might not be strong enough to handle Embiid in the post (who is?), but there’s only a handful of top-tier bigs that would have a real mismatch. While Mobley has the edge in nearly every aspect as a defender, Scottie’s ability to wreak havoc in transition off turnovers might feel a tad louder to the viewers. While Scottie’s versatility is behind Mobley, and Herb is better on the perimeter, Barnes’ mobility to guard 1-5 is up there with anyone else in the class.
Top-3 Big Rookie Defenders
from @BeyondTheRK:
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
3. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Oklahoma City Thunder
(HM: Usman Garuba)
from Mark Schindler:
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Oklahoma City Thunder
3. Usman Garuba, Houston Rockets
To me, Evan Mobley was the best defensive big and overall defender among rookies this season, deserving of All-Defense consideration in the frontcourt. The block party started in October and might not turn down the noise for two decades. A cerebral talent on both ends, Mobley is a defensive anchor down low who provides a reliable cornerstone for the Cleveland Cavaliers to build around.
JRE is a sound defender who uses length effectively with great defensive feel. Garuba is a load on the block. They probably are better options to guard traditional bigs down low, but Barnes’ versatility again stands out to me, giving him the edge as big wing 4 who can handle the small-5 role in most matchups with the ability to switch onto speedsters at a moment’s notice.
- @BeyondTheRK
Top-5 Overall Rookie Defenders
from @BeyondTheRK:
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
3. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
4. Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings
5. Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
(HM: Franz Wagner, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl)
from Mark Schindler:
1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Herb Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
3. Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings
4. Ayo Dosunmo, Chicago Bulls
5. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
(HM: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl)
I don't know that I have an answer for what separates Herb and Mobley (The top two by a longshot) from typical rookie defenders per se, but what makes them stand out for me is their discipline. It comes through both in their play/temperament and athletic abilities.
They have astounding length and instincts to be certain, but their body control is special. Their ability to play with the intensity they do, playing through entire possessions and not just actions, without fouling is huge. They both have strong bases even though they're rather slight for positions/size.
The line between fouling the hell out of someone and contesting them into the abyss is so small (cough cough Jaren Jackson Jr.). They blow that line away. That's what stands out to me most considering how long it can take young players, especially young bigs, to get accustomed to NBA speed and timing.
- Mark Schindler
Data Sources: Cleaning The Glass, Synergy Sports, Dunks and Threes, Basketball Reference, NBA Stats
For more film breadowns, instant NBA reactions, and all things basketball, Follow @BeyondTheRK on Twitter and YouTube!